Bakken Update: Investment Trends In The Bakken's First Quarter Of 2013, Part III [View article]
rjj1960,
Anything is possible, but those investors that started buying KOG around $8 like I recommended already have made some money on the stock. Its always important to look at value in these stocks and buy them when they pull back. I don't know for sure, but I would guess over the next 12 months KOG trades for $10-$11/share. The upcoming big swings in production numbers from pad drilling will cause these smaller operators to spike, so if the price of oil holds up (no way to know for sure) I think there could opportunities to make some money in oil and gas in 2013.
Bakken Update: Investment Trends In The Bakken's First Quarter Of 2013, Part III [View article]
charmion,
Cramer is right on this one. Probably the best way to play large cap unconventional oil. As for LLS pricing, is Louisiana Light Sweet which is a crude oil grade. Here is some info that might help describe crude oil grades. http://1.usa.gov/12qg65d
Bakken Update: PBF Energy Misses, But Continues To Increase Bakken And Canadian Feedstocks [View article]
Aricool,
Thanks for the info. I did not know the light/sweet mix was that low. Right now the differential is real tight in the heavies, but I would guess that will widen in the third quarter.
Bakken Update: Investment Trends In The Bakken's First Quarter Of 2013, Part III [View article]
jjmc2001 and Craig,
There are two very big reasons (Craig's comment below would be three) for cost decreases. I think completion costs may be the most important. Back in the fourth quarter of 2011, costs per stage were $124000 (continental numbers which a little lower than other smaller operators). In the 3rd quarter of 2012 this was down to $98000/stage. In the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of this year it was at $90000/stage. I don't have concrete numbers, but I know that operators are now able to complete three wells (zipper fracs) in the same amount of time as a single well. Not only are completion costs headed lower, they are saving a huge amount of time. I will be real interested in how these costs will come out on paper later in the year. The second is water. Companies that are drilling their own SWD and putting in produced water pipe are saving around $2/bbl in costs. Fresh water lines are saving an additional $2/bbl in costs as well. This has pushed trucking costs down significantly (unless you are hauling the muck left in the bottom of reserve pits, there seems to be a very lucrative business in soil remediation). There are a lot of trucks sitting around and motivated companies to low ball upcoming contracts. Now that the Bakken is getting water lines in, there isn't as much congestion on the roads which looks to be moderating more in the future.
Bakken Update: Investment Trends In The Bakken's First Quarter Of 2013, Part III [View article]
solojif,
Thanks for the info. You are correct about this and I should have probably described this better. A few years ago when Brigham first started speaking about doing zipper fracs, it seemed to think this was the best way to go. I think operators like to do all of the drilling first because it is cheaper to have the completion crew on site without worries about drilling problems slowing things down. When the weather is bad, most of the operators were trying to get as many holes drilled as possible and doing the completions when the weather is better.
Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
Aricool,
I had av unusually large position in PBF, so I sold some after a 10% move in a very short period of time. As for short term downside risk, not real sure. It is possible that WTI/Brent differential could pull back more, but hard to say anything for sure.
Bakken Update: An Overview Of World Refining And How To Invest In 2013 [View article]
Bakken Update: Triangle's Accounting Issue Is A Non-Factor [View article]
Bakken Update: PBF Energy Misses, But Continues To Increase Bakken And Canadian Feedstocks [View article]
Bakken Update: Investment Trends In The Bakken's First Quarter Of 2013 [View article]
Bakken Update: Investment Trends In The Bakken's First Quarter Of 2013, Part II [View article]
Bakken Update: Investment Trends In The Bakken's First Quarter Of 2013, Part III [View article]
Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
Either way (Eagle Ford or Utica) feedstock costs could go way down.
Bakken Update: Investment Trends In The Bakken's First Quarter Of 2013, Part III [View article]
Bakken Update: Investment Trends In The Bakken's First Quarter Of 2013, Part III [View article]
Anything is possible, but those investors that started buying KOG around $8 like I recommended already have made some money on the stock. Its always important to look at value in these stocks and buy them when they pull back. I don't know for sure, but I would guess over the next 12 months KOG trades for $10-$11/share. The upcoming big swings in production numbers from pad drilling will cause these smaller operators to spike, so if the price of oil holds up (no way to know for sure) I think there could opportunities to make some money in oil and gas in 2013.
Bakken Update: Investment Trends In The Bakken's First Quarter Of 2013, Part III [View article]
Cramer is right on this one. Probably the best way to play large cap unconventional oil. As for LLS pricing, is Louisiana Light Sweet which is a crude oil grade. Here is some info that might help describe crude oil grades. http://1.usa.gov/12qg65d
Bakken Update: PBF Energy Misses, But Continues To Increase Bakken And Canadian Feedstocks [View article]
Thanks for the info. I did not know the light/sweet mix was that low. Right now the differential is real tight in the heavies, but I would guess that will widen in the third quarter.
Bakken Update: Investment Trends In The Bakken's First Quarter Of 2013, Part III [View article]
There are two very big reasons (Craig's comment below would be three) for cost decreases. I think completion costs may be the most important. Back in the fourth quarter of 2011, costs per stage were $124000 (continental numbers which a little lower than other smaller operators). In the 3rd quarter of 2012 this was down to $98000/stage. In the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of this year it was at $90000/stage. I don't have concrete numbers, but I know that operators are now able to complete three wells (zipper fracs) in the same amount of time as a single well. Not only are completion costs headed lower, they are saving a huge amount of time. I will be real interested in how these costs will come out on paper later in the year. The second is water. Companies that are drilling their own SWD and putting in produced water pipe are saving around $2/bbl in costs. Fresh water lines are saving an additional $2/bbl in costs as well. This has pushed trucking costs down significantly (unless you are hauling the muck left in the bottom of reserve pits, there seems to be a very lucrative business in soil remediation). There are a lot of trucks sitting around and motivated companies to low ball upcoming contracts. Now that the Bakken is getting water lines in, there isn't as much congestion on the roads which looks to be moderating more in the future.
Bakken Update: Investment Trends In The Bakken's First Quarter Of 2013, Part III [View article]
Thanks for the info. You are correct about this and I should have probably described this better. A few years ago when Brigham first started speaking about doing zipper fracs, it seemed to think this was the best way to go. I think operators like to do all of the drilling first because it is cheaper to have the completion crew on site without worries about drilling problems slowing things down. When the weather is bad, most of the operators were trying to get as many holes drilled as possible and doing the completions when the weather is better.
Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
I had av unusually large position in PBF, so I sold some after a 10% move in a very short period of time. As for short term downside risk, not real sure. It is possible that WTI/Brent differential could pull back more, but hard to say anything for sure.