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Michael Filloon

 
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  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    bigazul,

    Never would have guessed it could get this cheap. These moves have been crazy.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Oct 13, 2014. 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    jpau,

    My guess would be the latter, but it would be hard to believe we would see much more of a move down. The only problem with that is we have all seen worse in the oil markets, and this may or many not be a more extended pullback.
    Oct 10, 2014. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    nutjob,

    Not a bad idea on the value side with an EV/EBITDA of 7.73. The only issue I see is short term. I would guess it will be a bit volatile over the next month or two.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Oct 10, 2014. 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    Hi AndyQ,

    Thanks. Given the size of the move, it wouldnt be a bad idea to start some positions, but its difficult to know how far into the sell off we are. There are some very good names that have value at these levels an because of that it may not be a bad idea to start or add to a position. We do provide our subscribers with more detailed info at http://bit.ly/1si3hbl if you have more specific questions. Good luck!
    Oct 8, 2014. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    meridian,

    It definitely has more value than it did, but DeeThree was over extended before it pulled back. We think it is a good idea to buy on pullbacks, but this is not one of the stocks we would buy. We also don't think the sell off is done. For more info go to http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Oct 8, 2014. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    Thanks for adding that Randal. Wish I was up on that hill.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Oct 8, 2014. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    FM,

    The biggest problem has been natural gas differentials. Its been selling at a significant discount. That isn't the only issue, as the market is correcting. When it does this, almost every name gets killed.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Oct 2, 2014. 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Athlon Offers Unique Exposure To The Northern Midland Basin [View article]
    bank,

    I think LPI is getting lumped in with AREX, which is a little strange as LPIs acreage isn't as good as Midland but still not as bad as Crockett County.
    Shaletrader
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 29, 2014. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Permian Pure Play Athlon Has Howard County Upside [View article]
    bank,

    That was a good result, but I think that county is better than anyone is giving it credit for. I thought the price was reasonable, and its possible they got it cheap.
    Shaletrader
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Athlon Offers Unique Exposure To The Northern Midland Basin [View article]
    Nice move on ATHL acquisition today. The pullback has may have provided value in the space. More info at Shaletrader (link below).

    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Permian Pure Play Athlon Beats Estimates With Vertical Wolfberry Production [View article]
    Nice move on ATHL buyout. Shows how other E&Ps are valuing the Howard County acreage. Pullback has provided value in some of the names. More info at Shaletrader.
    www. shaletrader.com
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Permian Pure Play Athlon Has Howard County Upside [View article]
    Nice pop today on Encana's acquisition. Turned out to be a nice trade. We have more on the acquisition at http://bit.ly/1si3hbl.
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    Blackdesert,

    Thanks, acreage values differ greatly when comparing the Delaware and Midland Basins. The Bone Springs is a good play (better in the northern Delaware than the south) but when we compare all of the intervals in the northern Delaware Basin to those in Midland, Midland is quite a bit better. Midland has seen more well results and because of this is further along, as well. As for the stocks you asked about, we cover those for our subscribers/investors at:
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 15, 2014. 09:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    Thanks shavitmi.

    Link to our website:
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 14, 2014. 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Analysts Have This Recent Permian IPO Growing 88% In 2015 [View article]
    shavitmi,

    Sorry I didn't answer quicker. This article covers operators in the Midland Basin, and that would be the main reason for not commenting on LNREF. But since it was brought up, I will comment on it. As for its market cap, it is just shy of $300MM, so its not real small with respect to some of the other names we cover. Compared to companies like EOX ($500MM) and AXAS ($550MM) it isn't terribly small. AXAS is a name we really like and have owned it in the past, but looking for a better entry point to get back in. In the Permian, CPE has a market cap under $400MM as well. It is better to focus on market cap and why we tend not to get real excited about share prices, as it could do a reverse split.
    Looking at its acreage, there are some very good areas, but the Eagle Ford is pretty good anywhere around the border of the oil and condensate windows. As we get more north and east, we see results improve because the Eagle Ford is a little deeper. Looking specifically at Lonestar's acreage in the Eagle Ford, we see three separate prospects, and each is quite different from the next, due to the distance between each area. Starting with the best acreage, its Gonzales/Wilson county acreage should perform the best. This "Gonzo" prospect is to the northeast of EOG's sweetspot. This is an area that has produced some of the best wells in play. It looks like this acreage is outside that area, but still very good. The Wilson County "Pirate" acreage is also very good. It is not as deep or gassy as Gonzo, but still good acreage. This is why they paid almost twice as much for its central acreage as it paid for its western. Its cheaper to drill the western acreage because of a more shallow vertical. It is a good thing Lonestar owns most of its western acreage near the consensate window. The higher percentage of natural gas "energizes" the well, or creates a higher pressured environment. This helps to move the resource up and out of the well bore. Western acreage has estimates for 23% gas as opposed to the 7% in the central acreage. These two areas do look quite good for Lonestar, and the acreage was purchased reasonably. We are starting to see the smaller startups all over in the U.S. because bigger operators don't want to mess with the smaller areas as it isn't worth their while. Bigger companies also want all of its acreage in one spot so development is much cheaper helping to keep the IRR% higher. Both the western and central areas are proven, which is good to have with a company this size so we don't have to worry about whether they have a core. EURs are higher in the west, but keep in mind those are higher due to the amount of gas produced. Lonestar has IRRs% higher in the west, but I think they will find the Gonzales acreage as much better than those estimates. Keep in mind, I could be wrong, but I am going off of well results nearby, and as you know these can vary significantly from one operator to the next. The Eastern acreage is much tougher to evaluation as there hasn't been as much traffic here. So its a little tougher to know. HK is drilling its "El Halcon" and has EURs of 452MBoe using a 7000 foot lateral. It is using a closer to the well bore type stimulation with very large volume of sand per foot. Keep in mind the Austin Chalk, Buda and Woodbine could also be economic in its eastern prospect. CWEI has differing estimates. It has EURs of 200MBoe to 250MBoe using 5500 to 6000 feet laterals.
    Looking at its acreage by the Poplar Dome, there hasn't been a lot of success using horizontals targeting the middle Bakken or upper Three Forks. STO has had a very good Red River vertical, but the middle Bakken has disappointed to date. More than likely, Lonestar got the acreage cheap and is waiting to see what happens as the area continues to be developed by bigger operators. It hopes there will be some success so it can sell or develop it themselves.
    In summary, Lonestar does have acreage with good economics. We don't own it, nor do we have plans to buy it. That isn't because we do or don't like the stock, just that we like others better. Right now is a tough time to own any small oil and gas operator as it is very possible WTI may head lower from here. I hope this clears things up a little, and let me know if you have any questions.
    The link below is to our website:
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Sep 13, 2014. 11:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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