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Michael Filloon

 
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  • Bakken Update: Halcon May Struggle To Find Economic Wells In 2015 [View article]
    FossilFuel,

    Thanks for sharing that, very informative. I wouldn't disagree that some of the second tier areas will still be developed to the point of being held by production, but would you agree that many of these pad projects could get canceled as three to four well pads would be cost prohibitive currently. I would guess most of those pads are moving towards the Nesson Anticline. I still believe areas around Camp Field are even ok to pad drill, so the area I am looking at is relatively large, just that lower pressured leaseholds wont garner much of a percentage of cap ex.
    Nov 24, 2014. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Your welcome g8tr,

    The data was pretty bad, and I would guess they had to have difficulty in stimulating the source rock as I think a good frac with not enough proppant would probably still produce a very good IP rate, just see a significant depletion rate as the sand is crushed under the weight of the formation. I am sure this was just an error as I think there have been some decent numbers using this technique in other plays (wish I had some specific examples.)
    Nov 24, 2014. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Halcon May Struggle To Find Economic Wells In 2015 [View article]
    send in the clowns,

    The portfolio managers cover our buy and sell ratings, and those are provided with the reasons for those ratings on our subscription site.
    Nov 24, 2014. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Halcon May Struggle To Find Economic Wells In 2015 [View article]
    bankstocks,

    Very good points, and you are correct about oil price recoveries and what that would mean for HK, but in the here and now things may get worse if we dont see oil prices recover to a certain extent. I dont know if we would go as far to say HK will go bankrupt (I know you were just using this as an example, and not saying they would), they could continue to work the reservation up here in ND for a while which should provide decent returns at today's prices. The only question is how long they would have to shift hours to that specific area before pricing improves.
    Nov 24, 2014. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Halcon May Struggle To Find Economic Wells In 2015 [View article]
    Global Investor,

    I dont generally talk about other analysts, but I have read some (but not all) of Richard's stuff and he seems to be pretty solid on a lot of the data/analysis he does provide. I think much of his bullishness may have been centered around what many believed to be a long term oil price much higher than today and this is where much of the bullishness I saw came from. I WTI is around $100/bbl, then the economics seem to clear up some and we could expect much of these higher well costs would come down as operators became more comfortable with the geology, started pad development and how some of the newer completion techniques would improve well production results.
    Now at today's oil prices the play seems to not be economic, and I would guess development will slow some. The well results have been ok as far as being a new play but well costs seem prohibitive. I would guess as time goes on and we see oil prices head higher the play could be developed, but with areas like the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford having much better IRRs, those will be developed first. I hadnt heard, but Apollo's decision seems to be a good one, but with oil prices at these levels, I think we see cash flows into some of these plays decrease significantly over the next year. Right now may be a better time to be conservative until we get a better idea of supply and demand in the oil markets.
    Nov 24, 2014. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Pablomike,

    More than a huge disappointment, the IP60 is 313 Bo/d. Didn't look like there were any problems, it was only the fifth well in the section. Probably stimulation issues. Only used 4 million pounds of sand, which seems to be very light on a per foot basis. I am sure those results will get a bunch better as they get more comfortable with the new completion design.
    Nov 22, 2014. 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    g8tr,

    I will do some digging around this weekend to see if there are any other big coiled tubing frac jobs already off of confidential status and run those numbers. I have some work to do on good areas versus fringier jobs in upcoming articles. Do you remember what well the 93 stage was done on?
    Nov 21, 2014. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    GHOST4REAL,

    They are hedged at 192000 bbls/d for the rest of the year at $9615/bbl. 1H15 is $91.22/bbl for 47000bbls/d. 2H15 is $89.98/bbl at 10000bbl/d. EOG estimates it will produce 300000 bbls/d of crude and condensate in Q4, so we should see a significant hit at year end. Most operators will be in for a rough year either way as most were caught off guard with the price drop. Hopefully it holds at $74/bbl.

    Hamm may have been a little ahead of himself with his hedges, but its hard to say right now. If the price improves significantly he will look like a hero, and he has always been black or white about things. So hopefully he is right.
    Nov 21, 2014. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    GHOST4REAL,

    You dont have to answer this question if you dont want to, but I am guessing from your comment that EOG is the operator of your leases? Just asking because you are probably in some of the best areas we have. As for being well hedged, EOG is hedged at 192000 bbl/d through year end at $96.15/bbl. Those hedges decrease significantly to $91.22/bbl in 1H15, 47000 bbl/d. 2H15 gets pretty lean for them at 10000 bbl/d at $89.98/bbl. Its average 2014 estimated full year production is 288000 bbl/d. I would have to look up where average production per day is right now, but this gives you an idea.

    Hamm may have been a little ahead of the game on selling his hedges, but he has always been an all or nothing guy and likes the head lines if anything. We wont know for a while if this was a dumb move or not, but I will hand it to him as its a gutsy call.

    As for Renville, looks like Samson (SSN) is planning some work directed at the Mission Canyon interval. I dont have much info on this area specifically, but I would guess these are going to be vertical fracs.
    Nov 21, 2014. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    nutjob,

    Thanks. Concise and to the point as usual.
    Nov 21, 2014. 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Steve,

    These are excellent points, but OPEC learned from the last time we saw a surge in North Sea production. OPEC made the proper cuts to support oil prices but in the process lost customers. This time around I believe the Saudis would be willing to cut some production, but not all as it still wants to keep its customer base.

    Our take is that OPEC knows they will have to have a show down with other producers at some point, and before things get too far out of hand it would like to slow down some of that production. I think this has more to do with a bigger picture of things to come. Every year, it gets cheaper to produce oil by unconventional means and the longer OPEC waits the more difficult it will be to slow some of it down. Hope this helps.
    Nov 21, 2014. 12:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    yapank,

    Nothing new on BAS. They are in a better area than some of the other completions businesses since the Permian seems to be relatively cheap to operate in compared to other US plays. We are waiting to see what type of cap ex reductions we see going into the new year before doing too much work on the name.
    Nov 20, 2014. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    dlk502,

    Thanks, and you keep warm as well.
    Nov 20, 2014. 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Sundowner,

    This is the first time in a long time I don't own any. Longer term there are still some good names to own, but until we have a bottom in oil prices there could be some issues. Goldman seemed to put a bottom in oil prices around the $74/bbl area but we think that could get re-tested after we get news back from OPEC on the 27th.
    Nov 20, 2014. 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    iosum,

    I would agree the oil window in the Eagle Ford is a better overall play, with Gonzales County's sweet spot being what may be the best area in the country. Your point on location is very important, as some of these operators would do well below $50/bbl, but the Antelope Field area is pretty special. The best way to play some of these names is knowing how good their assets are, and that may be one of the toughest things to know.
    Nov 20, 2014. 11:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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