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Michael Filloon  

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  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    Qniform,

    Thanks, Hopefully things improve soon.
    Jan 7, 2015. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    freed0m,

    I would guess the reason is they probably dont think they should have to quit producing anymore than OPEC does, plus the oil revenues are much more profitable for the operator than the hedges are. I would have to do some digging to find out the number of locations, but there are still are fairly large number. Plenty left to drill in the short term.
    Jan 7, 2015. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    Thanks Pablo,

    That would depend on specific areas with the good areas around 90% and fringe areas 65% to 70% maybe more.
    Jan 6, 2015. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    bikerron1,

    I would say you are right, but it is possible we see $80/bbl again by year end. We definately arent done with the move down in the price of oil, but the second half of the year should be better.
    Jan 6, 2015. 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    freed0m,

    First, well 20156 isnt necessarily in what we would consider one of EOG's best areas. It is located in western williams county and by our estimate will not be developed this year, by anyone after they are done drilling the winter wells. This area needs $80 oil for anyone to drill here and even with WTI at these levels most operators would not be motivated to drill this leasehold as payback times would be too great. Keep in mind, payback times also involve other costs and not just D&C. If you move just one table down where EOG is drilling in NE McKenzie County, you will most of these wells produce about 160K bbls in the first year. If you move to the bottom of the list where the last three wells all produce more than 350K+ bbls in the first year. All three of these wells are examples of its sand heavy frac design, and all provide good economics at today's oil price. This isnt the norm obviously, but the best operator on its best acreage can survive oil prices this low. For how long, thats anyones guess but he operators with fringe acreage will get killed whether in the Bakken, Permian, or Eagle Ford. Given the differentials, the Bakken may have more issues.
    Why will production increase year over year? The main reason is all of the operators are saying they will increase production year over year. At the same time they are cutting cap ex and still increasing production. To do this they move rigs from the area that well 20156 is located to a an area that well 22485 is located. The difference in production from a 360 day standpoint is 95K bbls to 413K bbls.
    The hedges are the biggest part of the story as most operators will be able to produce $90 bbls for the entire 1st quarter of this year and part of the second. I wouldn't say they are out of their minds, since they make pretty good money at $90 WTI. We will probably see more production cuts at that time if prices do not improve which I would guess they wont, but if demand does improve in the second half of the year like they estimate then we may see a fairly rapid increase in the price of oil.
    Jan 6, 2015. 04:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    Agreed. Even if AMZG can get well costs down below $7 (which they may have already), the very low production over the first 90 days makes it difficult to drill this area.
    Jan 2, 2015. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: American Eagle's Well Results Spell Significant Issues If Oil Prices Don't Rebound Soon [View article]
    Borrowing base of $60 million reduced to $0.
    http://yhoo.it/14i1koD
    AMZG has issues going forward.
    Jan 2, 2015. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic [View article]
    GHOST4REAL,

    I use that word for any well that is well above the curve for locations in the area. That specific well is for the northern Nesson Anticline, but wouldn't
    be in the south. If you are looking for some of the best wells in the history of the bakken check this out:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Its a list of the top 20 producers of all time (at that time) and here are a few more links to some articles I have done on well results
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    n-in-under-18-months
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 1, 2015. 12:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic [View article]
    joysrus,

    That's always an option.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Dec 31, 2014. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic [View article]
    OXBORO,

    EOG controls much of it (Parshall Field and Antelope). WLL is in the Sanish Field and Tarpon. QEP bought Grail Field a while back and this is considered to be the best by some. Its a tough one to list them all because most of the bigger names have positions on and around these areas.
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic [View article]
    brucesemi,

    Thanks and Happy New Year to you as well
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic [View article]
    boylan,

    We will see some production decreases, I would guess as operators temper some production. But many of the fringe areas will be put on hold until oil prices improve. Costs are improving everyday along with technology to improve production. We think the long term oil price is going to be around $80/bbl, but will be later next year before we think this price will be seen again.
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic [View article]
    GHOST4REAL,

    IP 24 has little to nothing to do with how we decide a great or poor well is. All a operator has to do is open the choke up and they can skew this rate as much as they want as all the pressure is released from the well early. This creates higher depletion rates and we see all this does is make for a very high initial number with no benefit to longer term production. We need at least 90 days of production to make a determination on whether a well is good or not. For this area, that well is a monster. It produced 137610 barrels of oil in the first 360 days, which isn't typical and very good for the northern Nesson Anticline.
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic [View article]
    boylan,

    We are only figuring payback times here, nothing else. Just taking revenues produced and backing out the costs to get there. There are always different ways to look at things, but payback times are very important to the oil and gas industry in deciding whether and area is good enough to develop at current oil prices. It doesn't mean the operator will not develop the specific area, only that it may want to look to better areas if it can until oil prices improve.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Dec 29, 2014. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic [View article]
    Pablomike,

    Agreed. 21516 is a monster well for the area. Not sure how many other wells they could have like this one, but it was definitely on a good spot.
    Dec 29, 2014. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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