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Michael Filloon  

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  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Ari,

    L/S producines (on Average) 3% refinery gases, 32% gasoline, 30% distillates, and 35% Heavy fuel oil, etc.
    H/Sour produces 1% refinery gases, 15% gasoline, 21% distillates, and 63% heavy fuel oil, etc.

    This is an average from a few years ago
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: High Grading And Its Effect On U.S. Oil Production [View article]
    Pablomike,

    Thats a great question and one I dont have the answer to. There was a big drop of producing days for 1/15, so I am guessing there was some service work done, but that is a guess. Production days increased in the months after that but production didnt pick up with the days.
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: High Grading And Its Effect On U.S. Oil Production [View article]
    Enno,

    Thanks for the comment, but we will have to agree to disagree on this one.
    Aug 18, 2015. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: High Grading And Its Effect On U.S. Oil Production [View article]
    Ari,

    They may be right about the exports of US oil, as its an uphill climb no matter how you look at it. The refiners have a lot of clout, and the administration has been anything but supportive of the oil industry. I think a Jones Act exemption is needed either way, but there is little transparency on that as well.
    Aug 18, 2015. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: High Grading And Its Effect On U.S. Oil Production [View article]
    Ari,

    You are right that this is not good for the Bakken. Although some of the best wells in the country are coming out of ND, the problems are taxes and differentials. The Permian and Eagle Ford may be in a better position because of this.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: High Grading And Its Effect On U.S. Oil Production [View article]
    Aricool,

    Great comment, thanks for that. Yes, very bearish crude in the short term. It is possible we see $34/bbl before this is all done. That doesnt mean we believe it will happen for sure as oil prices could bounce around a bit and we think any bottom we reach will probably bring about the capitulation we have been waiting for, but it will be a painful road getting there. On the flip side, this is probably an opportunity for those that are willing to wait as good operators with good balance sheets are well positioned when the oil markets correct themselves.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: High Grading And Its Effect On U.S. Oil Production [View article]
    Calculus,

    We continue to urge people to be very selective in the names they buy and own in this environment. Debt restructuring will occur, but the bit players you are talking about could be in for a very difficult time. We expect to see a large number of bankruptcies going forward. So we would exercize caution when investing in highly levered names, especially if one does not know how good the acreage is they have.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: High Grading And Its Effect On U.S. Oil Production [View article]
    TimmiesRegular,

    I think some leases will expire, but not a large number. Some of the marginal areas in this article will, with examples being western and southern McKenzie, Burke, Billings, western Williams, and there is a corridor in central to northern Williams that isnt very good at all that could also see some expiration. Obviously, there are more areas in other counties, but as a general rule these operators are really motivated to keep leases unless the acreage is on the fringe. If infrastructure is in place, they will probably just bite the bullet so to speak and take the loss waiting for prices to improve. There will be excellent opportunities for the big to get bigger through all of this as we could see some fire sales for operators that are willing to buy and wait on acreage that is already held but not that good.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: High Grading And Its Effect On U.S. Oil Production [View article]
    Joshua,

    Initially we didnt think there would need to be much of a decline, nor did we think there would be given the large number of core locations left to drill. The reason we believed this is historically there isnt a huge difference (as a percentage) between supply and demand (+3 million in supply vs total demand of 93 million bbls). We believed that the demand story would pick up significantly as oil prices decreased, but this hasnt happened especially in the diesel market. We think US supply will need to decrease by about 1MM bbls/d by mid 2016. We also believe this decline will be temporary as demand will pick up a little later next year and production will increase from there. We think we see $50 maybe $55 in 1Q16 with $60 by mid 2016.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: High Grading And Its Effect On U.S. Oil Production [View article]
    Thanks Brian,

    You are correct. We are still working a few things out with respect to the data on WellDataBase. Looks like those numbers arent coming through correctly on the BOE end of things. Thanks for letting us know!
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Divergence Of Rig Count, Oil Price And Production Explained [View article]
    Force,

    Interesting article. Thanks!
    Aug 17, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Ari,

    I agree, definitely a difficult trading vehicle. Much easier to short the commodity than be long, especially now. We are using it as more of a trade than an investment.

    We don't follow either GEOS or DXPE. Sorry I cant be of help.
    Aug 16, 2015. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    MedTechBio,

    Great question! Although oil prices may be headed lower in the short term, it has gotten a little oversold. So I am cost averaging in hoping for a short term pop (which I may not get) or hold out longer term for prices to adjust. Anything is possible with respect to oil prices but we don't think today's prices are sustainable. Whether its shale or higher cost producers around the world something may give. Keep in mind, this is not a buy recommendation on UWTI given the very high risk. We don't recommend levered ETFs or ETNs to any of our investors. We think we see $60 by the end of the year with WTI although it could take longer, like Q1. The last thing I would say is that we could really low oil prices for even longer than that as over supply based oil gluts usually take longer. The lower we go and the quicker it happens will help to influence its move back up. Have a great day!
    Aug 15, 2015. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Ari,
    agreed. I don't know how long oil will be at these levels, but high oil prices are a thing of the past for a while.
    Aug 15, 2015. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Bison,
    I think some of this was due to the tax trigger. I think some operators held back some completions.
    Aug 15, 2015. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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