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Michael Filloon  

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  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects, Part III [View article]
    dkwilk,
    I did a three part series a little while ago. Here are the links. Let me know what you think and if there any companies you are aware of that I missed.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Sep 5, 2011. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects, Part II [View article]
    I hope OAS can turn things around.
    Sep 5, 2011. 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects, Part II [View article]
    Kolzy,

    It is hard to believe that KOG could even trade at this level. This stock is a big buy below $6. I am real interested in BEXP and how it will cut costs this year with all the new technology. Both are dirt cheap.
    Sep 5, 2011. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects, Part II [View article]
    Burnski,
    I really like NOG at this level. I think the non-operator model is quite good, but operators will begin to see a large decrease in costs over the next year which NOG will not benefit from. But if oil service costs continue to increase, it may even things out. I like NOG less than BEXP and KOG, but like them better than OAS, and would say it is a definate buy at this level. Thanks for the comment.
    Sep 5, 2011. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects, Part III [View article]
    ChuckXX,
    (N)et (A)sset (V)alue is the worth of a companies assets minus its liablilities or debt. So the best way I could define it, is if the company takes the value of all of its stuff and then subtracts everything it owes against that value.
    Sep 5, 2011. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects, Part III [View article]
    Thanks Bob,
    The info is appreciated. There has been so much talk about the Eagle Ford and its 20 to 40 spacing, the Bakken has been forgotten for a time, even now where it is very possible that much of this play will have 4 Bakken and 4 Three Forks per 1280 acre spacing. That is without the other possible Three Forks benchs, and other resource areas such as the Red and Scallion.
    Sep 5, 2011. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects, Part III [View article]
    I completely agree. I think every investor (especially the retired) should own at least one MLP/LLC.
    Sep 5, 2011. 03:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects [View article]
    jjmc2001,
    The nice thing about the small E & P companies is how cheap they are. When these take off, even if we have to wait 6 or 12 months, it will be fast and a sizeable market cap increase.
    Sep 2, 2011. 11:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects [View article]
    ChuckXX,

    Im not trying to jump in on your conversation with Bill, but I wanted to add a little something. Bill knows oil companies better than anyone I know, and it is great he takes the time to help (He has helped me to understand many of the facets of the oil production companies). The reason I am coming in towards the high end of BEXP estimates has to do with a couple of variables. The first thing is I believe is that I believe the markets could pull back to 1120 on the S&P500 then bounce up and not look back. I think this bounce will happen in October. I think the dollar will continue to have weakness and the US economy will experience slow growth. The oil price will remain strong and I think we will see WTI prices moving hanging around the $100/barrel range. I also think Brigham's ability to cut costs further is possible. We are unsure how much money is saved by pad drilling. If Brigham drill four wells per pad they could possibly zipper frac all four at once. I only had estimates of zipper fracs on three wells at a time so I am unsure how much time it will save but it is possible a four well zipper frac could take under three days per well. This would cut frac costs by one third. Someone correct me if I am wrong but I think a frac cost is $1 million on a 38 stage well. This could mean a savings of $700000/well or $2.8 million total for all four wells. This doesnt even include the saved times from drilling multiple wells on a pad. These cost savings should be quite large and get more wells up and running. This is even more important as the majority of these wells produce a very large amount of oil in the first 12 months. So basically I think we could significant cost and time decreases in well service. I also don't think we are in a long term bear market. I think the world's growth is slowing, but ours should be quite good. This should support the price of oil in the long term. Keep in mind that Bill knows alot more than I do about this, and he has been right alot more than I have been on these companies so I wouldn't dismiss his estimates.
    Sep 2, 2011. 11:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects [View article]
    luvsilver,
    $6 has been a difficult area of resistance for KOG, and if you are trading the stock this is a very difficult environment to do so. Most of us invested in KOG, are waiting on well results in its Koala area. I would venture to guess we will get the pop you are looking for then, but as I said, until the economy starts to paint a better picture, we may be stuck here for a while. That said you can own KOG down here based on what I believe to be a value play on Kodiak's assets. Have a good weekend.
    Sep 2, 2011. 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects [View article]
    ash52,
    No bad news other than the jobs report. This report was expected to a certain extent, but since it turned out to be a flat month, the market will sell off names to price in a higher chance of recession. TPLM will always sell off harder than other names as they are not hedged.
    Sep 2, 2011. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects [View article]
    Hi Bill,
    I get quite a few questions about Brigham's stock price going forward and I am probably not the best one to ask as it is not my forte. Where do you see Brigham at the end of 2012 with respect to EBITDA, Cash Flow, and Earnings and how would this translate to its stock price. Thanks for the help Bill.
    Sep 2, 2011. 12:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects [View article]
    I just finished an article that include OAS, along with WLL and SM. I am unsure about MRO because of the cost of acreage additions, but it is hard to argue that the stock is really cheap. I like EOG a little better here base on the ability to grow its oil production (got in real early in all of its plays).
    Sep 2, 2011. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects [View article]
    ChuckXX,
    Thank you. There have been 13 downward revisions for the third quarter of this year and one for the full year of 2011 and one for full year of 2012. This could have affected earnings estimates. Even so, I don't think it matters alot in the long term. I think we will start to see more upgrades in the near term as long as the price of oil can continue to find support.
    Sep 2, 2011. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken/Three Forks Mid Caps Find Promising Prospects [View article]
    cynic2011,

    ICPAX is a fund that follows the Williston Basin.
    Sep 2, 2011. 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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