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Michael Filloon

 
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  • Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
    Aricool,

    I am unsure if I am remembering this correctly, but didn't Valero say they could ship crude to the east coast for $2/bbl? I could be way off but thought it was said at the quarterly earnings.
    May 4, 2013. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: An Overview Of World Refining And How To Invest In 2013 [View article]
    Aricool,

    I don't believe your trade is exotic, I was just speaking of exotic options in general.
    May 4, 2013. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: PBF Energy Misses, But Continues To Increase Bakken And Canadian Feedstocks [View article]
    Aricool,

    Could be why JP Morgan has an 11.1% passive stake in the company. Could be some growth even if we don't see differentials widen again like I assume they will.
    May 4, 2013. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: PBF Energy Misses, But Continues To Increase Bakken And Canadian Feedstocks [View article]
    shawnaraghi,

    I like the entire sector. A sell off was needed but it is really overdone now. As for NTI and CVRR, there is an interesting dynamic. CVRR has access to Cushing. NTI is a play on both Bakken and WCS. Bakken differentials to WTI have really tightened up and so has WCS/WTI differentials. Right now NTI is not benefitting from the wide differentials it has enjoyed, and although I think those will widen again as the year goes forward, NTI may underperform. This is an assumption and I could be wrong, but from what I have heard on differentials Bakken crude has gotten a little more expensive.
    May 4, 2013. 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: An Overview Of World Refining And How To Invest In 2013 [View article]
    Aricool,

    From what I understand of the first quarter, WCS differentials tightened significantly while WTI/Brent did the same. Many of the refiners would lose money running the cokers so they decided to stick with light/sweet crudes.
    May 4, 2013. 01:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Triangle's Accounting Issue Is A Non-Factor [View article]
    jebgeo,

    Sorry I didnt get back to you sooner, was pushing out an article on PBF last night and it got late. I will be writing something up on KOG this weekend, but I am dissappointed with the EPS. KOG had done a better job on the bottom line recently and I had them missing but not this bad.
    May 3, 2013. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Triangle's Accounting Issue Is A Non-Factor [View article]
    rlp,

    Sorry I didnt get back to you sooner. I will check out the numbers and maybe put together something on their depletion. Its a good point as to the current production and how many wells that have been drilled. I do know their wells have produced very well in comparison to other operators in that area in the short term, but I have not modelled out anything with respect to longer term production. I will get back to you soon.
    May 3, 2013. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: An Overview Of World Refining And How To Invest In 2013 [View article]
    roes,

    I have to look at it closer but it sounds like there were an additional $10 in RIN costs for the quarter than anticipated. The $10 million equates to about $2.36/share. Sounds like the costs will be passed on to the consumer so I am not real concerned about this miss. I added to the position this morning when the stock was down 7%, wish I would have jumped in a little sooner when it was down 11%.
    May 3, 2013. 12:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
    GOOBIE,

    That's correct. The idea is to bypass the issues at Cushing and rail the oil to the east and west. The question is how much, or at least that is what the analysts are trying to figure out. Depending on where you look there are all sorts of estimates on the cost to rail oil to the northeast and southwest. For arguments sake, Bakken crude railed to New Jersey is currently costing about $16/bbl to transport. Keep in mind this number is high and it will probably get cheaper with time. So whatever the transportation cost is minus the price of Brent would be a good starting point for pricing. When I spoke to the CEO at MRO, he put it pretty plainly and said the US crudes would always sell at a discount to WTI. He said that Bakken crude would probably sell for $6 less per barrel than WTI in a best case scenario because it costs roughly that much to pipe it to Cushing. As we find new ways to send the crude we will see differentials tighten.
    May 2, 2013. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: An Overview Of World Refining And How To Invest In 2013 [View article]
    Thanks Mike,

    I appreciate you adding some clarity to the ethanol business.
    May 1, 2013. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: An Overview Of World Refining And How To Invest In 2013 [View article]
    yanas girl,

    The Keystone XL will affect heavy Canadian crude prices more than anything else. The gulf refineries are very complex and would benefit from this as would Canadian oil producers. NTI's refinery does use Canadian crudes so this will probably increase costs. It should tighten differentials between WTI/WCS.
    Apr 30, 2013. 02:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: An Overview Of World Refining And How To Invest In 2013 [View article]
    DividendInvestorLA,

    You make very good points. Im looking shorter term. Will add some if it continues to pull back.
    Apr 29, 2013. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: An Overview Of World Refining And How To Invest In 2013 [View article]
    Phillip,

    Thanks for the info. Its appreciated.
    Apr 28, 2013. 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Small Oil And Gas Stock Picks On The Pullback [View article]
    rlp2451,

    I need to dig a little deeper, but I wonder how much of the total revenue is deferred on the leased railcars. That would add clarity, In my opinion.
    Apr 28, 2013. 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Small Oil And Gas Stock Picks On The Pullback [View article]
    rlp2451,

    I like ARII due to the big recent pullback. I think the selloff was a little overdone, and they missed numbers mostly due to revenues generated from leased rail cars (which is realized over a period of time as opposed to selling one). Take a look at the earnings transcript and let me know what you think, I am interested to see if you come away with the same impression.
    Apr 26, 2013. 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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