Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Michael Filloon  

View Michael Filloon's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Bison,
    I think some of this was due to the tax trigger as operators did wait on some completions. I would guess July was also good.
    Aug 15, 2015. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    There are some new pipeline maps up and http://bit.ly/1IRtZy2
    The Bakken and Eagle Ford maps are already there as well
    Aug 14, 2015. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    kirbyzz,

    Im not sure if I missed your first question or not, and sorry if I did. Its tough to know in this comments section which has really taken off. Hope I don't double up a comment and say it twice for you. These Mega-fracs have been used across all of the major, and even some of the speculative areas with good results. From what I have seen the decline starts later. This is because so much resource is produced that it takes longer for well pressures and production to decline. We believe (this is only off of what I have seen to date and someone else may have a better explanation like Petro or Craig) that the decline curve is the same, just later. These numbers could be a little different and if we were to see a change I would guess the later decline curve could be a little less with Mega-fracs, but this isn't for sure and each area and source rock would produce a little differently so its difficult to know. The Bakken was actually (from what we understand) the last of the big three to use Mega-fracs as it was used in the Eagle Ford and the Permian before the first wells were done Parshall field.
    Aug 14, 2015. 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    158,

    Playing the commodity is a really tough way to play the oil recovery given the chance of losses. There are also issues with contango, which is where oil prices are higher in later futures contracts (oil prices higher in the upcoming months than they are now). ETFs like the USO buy forward contracts (which are now more expensive) and sell those contracts in the near term which causes some erosions of gains. Approximately 1% per month now but if contango worsens, then the so would the erosion. Commodity ETFs are generally traded so Aricool is right about looking for ETFs that hold a bundle of names. If you would like some help with this, we can at our membership site.
    http://bit.ly/1si3hbl
    Hope this helps!
    Aug 14, 2015. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Thanks Ari
    Aug 14, 2015. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Pablo,

    Thanks for asking the question, I didn't even know it was in there. I haven't heard of any wells, but I don't think this will occur until 2016.
    Aug 14, 2015. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Ultrabase,

    I would just let it go at this point. No one calls it "fracking" but environmental groups.
    Aug 14, 2015. 12:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Here's a link to the Three Affiliates possible pull out from the ND oil tax changes.
    http://reut.rs/1h9jeAt
    The biggest sticking point to the tax change is an allotment of money that is supposed to go to oversight and roads.
    Aug 14, 2015. 05:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Pablomike,

    This isn't the case on the reservation from what I understand. They decided to keep the old tax laws in place. Not sure if anyone else has info to the contrary, but from what I heard, when we passed the changes Fort Berthold wasn't going to do the same.
    Aug 14, 2015. 05:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    lol wut,

    I think they are including all of the source rock in their figures. You are exactly right about Billings as that's a Pronghorn Sands play. McLean only has the middle Bakken in a very small portion of the county in the northwest. This has to be the case as they even included Golden Valley which is a vertical Red River play.
    Aug 13, 2015. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Pablomike,

    The big move in McLean probably has to do with the VanHook Field area in the upper northwest part of the county. Now QEP had done some work to the east which probably isn't as good, but more recently WPX completed some wells. I would guess since there are very few wells in that area and the older wells are quite a bit older and not on as good of acreage that it caused a fairly large swing in the numbers. Doesn't mean McLean is a new "find", but more about only a very few number of sections on very good acreage. I don't get the Billings number, that is a head scratcher. Those are all Pronghorn sands wells which have a much lower cost to D&C (about $2MM less) but Billings wells imo are not as good as those in Stark. So not sure...
    Aug 13, 2015. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    lol wut,

    Great points. The idea behind their math is good, but the numbers they use make these breakeven numbers not necessarily "break even" for oil companies. The average numbers look very low even with including wells in say central Dunn or western McKenzie which doesn't really tell us a whole lot either. I like they take the time to do it, just think they could break it down further.
    Aug 13, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    rlp2451,

    I don't think anyone has brought this up yet, which is kind of surprising. Here is how the DMR states they come up with their numbers:

    "DMR developed these prices by tracking economic data submitted by operators during our monthly hearings. We have an economic dataset that includes monthly well operating costs, yearly drilling costs and IP rates for each county for the past 12 months and type curves to model average well production by county. Based on those figures, we were able to develop the breakeven oil prices at a 10% rate of return."

    I'm sure you saw that at the end of the document, but thought I would post. I think there data is accurate and useful, but some of these numbers may be a little on the low side. This is my opinion, but I think these figures are not just influenced by well costs but also where the wells are being drilled. Since the numbers are clumped together, it would depend on what operators are in those specific areas being drilled because some of the bigger names have much lower costs. I wish the State would break this down a little better. I would prefer each county broke into east/west or nw/ne/sw/se, etc. This would be a much better way to do this.

    I don't know of any other state that does this, but wish they would.
    Aug 13, 2015. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    buck000,

    Good luck to you as well! When working on investments that deal directly with shale our team doesnt have a lot of leeway with respect to the names we own. In a down market like this one hopefully the shorts work and we can find the right names that still have success at lower oil prices. Along the way we hope to find the names that work when oil prices recover. Being bigger firm (probably small by Wall Street standards) we definately keep busy. Thank you for your comments and have a great day!
    Aug 12, 2015. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Aricool,

    Awesome comments, and you are right that would be pretty cool......
    Aug 12, 2015. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
4,520 Comments
3,756 Likes