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Michael Filloon

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  • Bakken Update: EOG Wells Model EURs Over 2 Million Barrels Of Oil [View article]
    Mark,

    Thanks again for the info Mark. I appreciate all the time you spend as well as your criticisms. If you believe these numbers are incorrect feel free to model them for the other readers, as I am sure they would like to see your results. I believe I was fairly specific as to how I believe these wells will continue to produce. Have a great night.
    Jan 9 03:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: EOG Has Several Catalysts For 2013 [View article]
    Aricool,

    That is the tough thing about figuring out a true realized price/barrel needed to keep programs going, as there are so many different estimations. Not long ago some of the companies with higher costs did need close to $80/bbl, but costs have really pulled back. Back when Newfield pulled Bakken dollars and put them to work in the Uinta, it probably needed $80/bbl (Long laterals cost $12.5 million for them specifically), but Newfield has always used the best stuff and lots of it. $80 might even be stretching it. This is why they had some real nice results. Also, this number changes a lot from an area like the Sanish Field to Brigham's Roughrider area. Right now the middle of the line number is $60/barrel, where areas like Mondak are higher as the results have not been good at all in that area in my opinion. The realized price needed is probably heading lower (in my opinion) as there is still room for further cost decreases. 2013 should see better Bakken results, but the story will continue to be getting the oil on the rails and to areas that are importing Brent. This in concert with continued decreases in costs should provide for better bottom line numbers. I think the bigger operators will benefit more from this, but would love to see companies like KOG and TPLM get oil to the east and west and not the south. This is just a guess on my part, but if we get enough oil to the east and west coasts (and Canada) it could affect the price of Brent some. Historically, OPEC has opened up production to push down the price of oil when US production increases, but I don't think OPEC has the ability to do this given it is already pumping pretty close to capacity. One thing to remember is that the Bakken is around $60/bbl, but the oil window of the Eagle Ford is much less. Look for prices needed in the Granite Wash, Wolfcamp, Barnett Combo, Mississippi Lime, and Niobrara to head upward as the price of NGLs continues to pull back. It would be nice if the administration would support an export plan.
    Dec 9 06:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Q1 2012 Reported Earnings [View article]
    Stockdoc96,

    Im not trying to beat Kodiak's stock price down, thats up to the company and the economy.
    May 4 10:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: The Three Forks Has Huge Potential [View article]
    Cynicoren,

    The abbreviations used most in this article are:
    IP=Initial Production
    This is a term for the amount of resource that is produced over a given time. In general IP rate means the first day or 24 hours, but is not always included. You may see 30-day IP rates which is an average per day of the amount of resource over the first 30 days. 60-day and 90-day are also common, with 90-day being much more important from a total resource standpoint.
    Boe/d=Barrels of oil equivalent per day. This may be written in Bo/d or just barrels of oil per day. The first seems to give a better idea of total production as natural gas and liquified natural gas are also in the formula.
    The last you might want to know about is EURs=estimated ultimate recovery, which is the total amount of resource garnered through the life of the well. So 500 MBoe=500000 barrels of oil equivalent.
    Apr 10 03:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Frac Facts [View article]
    I would agree with you and believe if this technology was embraced, we would see some very positive things. Its too bad this stock has been pulled down with other oil services, I don't think the market trully understands this company.
    Feb 10 05:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Eagle Ford Compares To The Bakken [View article]
    Mobywhite,

    I do believe that the condensate window is a little better than the Bakken based on these Eagle Ford wells being short laterals and generally cost in the $7 million range. If some of these company estimates are correct and EURs are in the 600-1000 Mboe range, then these wells could very well be more profitable than the best Bakken wells. These companies will have to prove these numbers are possible first, and it could take a while to see what longer term production numbers tell us. Have a great night.
    Jan 21 12:40 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: What To Buy In 2012 [View article]
    Hi Scott,
    I think the downgrade has more to do with reaching Northland securities price target than anything else. I still own an average size position in my portfolio, and would add to it around $8.50/share, but I don't think I will see that as I think WTI pricing is headed up. If Kodiak continues to execute and sees big improvements from 30 stage fracs, then the stock could double this year (but I think they will get bought before year end). I will be real interested to see what fourth quarter earnings brings. God bless you and your family also.
    Jan 1 02:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore Oil: Companies With the Largest Increase From 52 Week Lows [View article]
    Mr. Banks,
    Please elaborate, which lies about the oil sector?
    Jul 13 10:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Oil Stocks With Low PEG Ratios [View article]
    I am sorry, It looks as though I was a bit simplistic in my explanation, of this company's management. You are totally correct with respect to its locations. These are all exciting areas that have huge upside. Thank you for the info on why their missed estimates, I appreciate it.
    Mar 24 09:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Mines in Wyoming Coming Closer to Production in 2011 [View article]
    Its interesting the Russia is currently buying up uranium, since they are pulling 65% of current usage in 2013. Great job Jeb, I really enjoyed the article.
    Jan 15 03:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Recent Kodiak Completions Model 1000+ MBoe [View article]
    Just to let everyone know, I have excepted a position at Split Rock Trading http://bit.ly/1hccnUh

    We don't have everything up and running yet, but take a minute to check out our site. We have some additional info on KOG as well.
    Apr 4 10:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    I have spoken to several operators out that direction, and we must be talking to different people because your story is completely different than what have been told on a best and worst case scenario. We must be looking at different maps as well, because Whiting's new acreage overlaps SYRG's acreage in the NE. BBG has also said that its acreage has a similar geology throughout its acreage as well (much like what WLL has said) and it overlaps SYRG's acreage at the eastern portion. If we look at its most southwestern acreage it has some working interest right on the edge of BCEI's Hog Farm purchase at over $10000+/acre. Going forward there are some very important catalysts for SYRG like the long lateral they are doing with NBL and 4 they are participating in at the most northwestern point of their acreage. There is already a NBL well out that direction that seemed to be in line with estimates. The most important is the J-Sand well they will be doing in Q1 of next year. The beauty of SYRG going forward is it doesn't have to test this acreage right away due to the proven Wattenberg Field it can develop while other operators work closer to its acreage in the NE extension. If you look at its NE extension it has working interest in the north all the way around to the west. Some of this acreage will be developed first, and if SYRG gets only an average result from the JSand, we could see a very nice pop to the stock price. Since the JSand has seen so much vertical work in the past, SYRG can try what it thinks is he best area and go from there. Given the depth of the JSand it is possible these locations will have higher well pressures and could produce very well, but we will have to wait on the result. I really like these operators with fringe acreage. I remember when Bill was telling me about a little company called GeoResources in western Williams County. In all honesty, I only knew a little about them. They had acreage that wasn't be developed very hard, and at the time that was a fringe Bakken play. The first few wells were terrible, and when worked the production up it seemed like the wells may not be economic. Operators were saying the area was too shallow, the middle Bakken may only provide two locations per section and the Three Forks wasnt even that good. Companies started to dump cash into the area and we started to see a few wells, which got better with time. We came to find out that this area was interesting for the same reason Parshall Field was which has to do with traps. Anyways, HK swooped in and bought the company. Now this is a core area for some and although it is not as good as Mountrail or NE McKenzie, EOG has wells that payback in less than a year. This has some to do with its completion style, but still these operators kept hammering at it and now the acreage is worth much more. Obviously this doesn't mean the SYRG's extension acreage will be that good, but its greatest value is in its Wattenberg core acreage. I think this acreage is as good as LPI, FANG or ATHL's in the Wolfcamp. I know there has been a lot more interest there, and the Permian still caries a higher valuation. Thanks for the compliment on the SLCA piece. But I can't take all the credit. Bill was way ahead of the game on SLCA and saw something big around the corner, my only worry is its valuation is getting a little crazy at these levels. Have a great night. Always nice hearing from you.
    Nov 15 03:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic As EOG Resources' Well Design Revolutionizes Unconventional Oil Production [View article]
    Machiavelli,

    No dinner needed. I am just glad you did well. Have a great night!
    Oct 21 12:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halc√≥n - Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    AR,

    As usual great article.
    Aug 13 12:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Well In Western Williams County Produces 6-Month Payback [View article]
    Pablomike,

    Sorry, I was thinking in general with the last comment. There have been quite a few re-fracs to date. I havent looked over those numbers but do remember EOG saying that they had some very good results. Kodiak recently re-fracced two of its worst wells. A while back, Kodiak had first started using sliding sleeves and had some awful results. The wells were re-fracced and one produced 60000 bbls of oil in the first two months. There have been some refracs done, but there isnt enough data to date to formulate any estimates. This is just a guess, but EOG will probably be the first to do a large number of refracs, and I am sure this will be in Parshall Field. Could be interesting........
    Jun 25 10:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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