Seeking Alpha

Michael Filloon

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Michael Filloon's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Bakken Update: Halcon Well Results Improve While Kodiak Buys The Best In West Williams County [View article]
    lol wat,

    You may be missing the point of the article. This is a real general idea of revenues/costs/etc. Anyone is free to figure this out anyway they would like. I didn't forget any of those variables, just thought others would figure that out themselves if they wanted to. As for well costs, they are correct. Thanks for commenting.
    Jun 24, 2013. 10:06 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Well In Western Williams County Produces 6-Month Payback [View article]
    bhanes,

    Thanks for the comments they are appreciated. If you have any specific issues with this data I would love to hear it. Sounds like you have a lot of experience in oil and gas, so if there is anything specific you would like to address so we can all learn something it would be great. Have a great weekend, and thanks for reading.
    Jun 21, 2013. 08:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Whiting's Sanish Well Models To 2 Million Barrels Of Oil [View article]
    Hi Marc,

    These wells are representative of Whiting wells in Sanish Field completed in 2007 and the first half of 2008.
    Jan 11, 2013. 06:25 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: EOG Wells Model EURs Over 2 Million Barrels Of Oil [View article]
    Mark,

    Thanks again for the info Mark. I appreciate all the time you spend as well as your criticisms. If you believe these numbers are incorrect feel free to model them for the other readers, as I am sure they would like to see your results. I believe I was fairly specific as to how I believe these wells will continue to produce. Have a great night.
    Jan 9, 2013. 03:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: EOG Has Several Catalysts For 2013 [View article]
    Aricool,

    That is the tough thing about figuring out a true realized price/barrel needed to keep programs going, as there are so many different estimations. Not long ago some of the companies with higher costs did need close to $80/bbl, but costs have really pulled back. Back when Newfield pulled Bakken dollars and put them to work in the Uinta, it probably needed $80/bbl (Long laterals cost $12.5 million for them specifically), but Newfield has always used the best stuff and lots of it. $80 might even be stretching it. This is why they had some real nice results. Also, this number changes a lot from an area like the Sanish Field to Brigham's Roughrider area. Right now the middle of the line number is $60/barrel, where areas like Mondak are higher as the results have not been good at all in that area in my opinion. The realized price needed is probably heading lower (in my opinion) as there is still room for further cost decreases. 2013 should see better Bakken results, but the story will continue to be getting the oil on the rails and to areas that are importing Brent. This in concert with continued decreases in costs should provide for better bottom line numbers. I think the bigger operators will benefit more from this, but would love to see companies like KOG and TPLM get oil to the east and west and not the south. This is just a guess on my part, but if we get enough oil to the east and west coasts (and Canada) it could affect the price of Brent some. Historically, OPEC has opened up production to push down the price of oil when US production increases, but I don't think OPEC has the ability to do this given it is already pumping pretty close to capacity. One thing to remember is that the Bakken is around $60/bbl, but the oil window of the Eagle Ford is much less. Look for prices needed in the Granite Wash, Wolfcamp, Barnett Combo, Mississippi Lime, and Niobrara to head upward as the price of NGLs continues to pull back. It would be nice if the administration would support an export plan.
    Dec 9, 2012. 06:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Q1 2012 Reported Earnings [View article]
    Stockdoc96,

    Im not trying to beat Kodiak's stock price down, thats up to the company and the economy.
    May 4, 2012. 10:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: The Three Forks Has Huge Potential [View article]
    Cynicoren,

    The abbreviations used most in this article are:
    IP=Initial Production
    This is a term for the amount of resource that is produced over a given time. In general IP rate means the first day or 24 hours, but is not always included. You may see 30-day IP rates which is an average per day of the amount of resource over the first 30 days. 60-day and 90-day are also common, with 90-day being much more important from a total resource standpoint.
    Boe/d=Barrels of oil equivalent per day. This may be written in Bo/d or just barrels of oil per day. The first seems to give a better idea of total production as natural gas and liquified natural gas are also in the formula.
    The last you might want to know about is EURs=estimated ultimate recovery, which is the total amount of resource garnered through the life of the well. So 500 MBoe=500000 barrels of oil equivalent.
    Apr 10, 2012. 03:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Frac Facts [View article]
    I would agree with you and believe if this technology was embraced, we would see some very positive things. Its too bad this stock has been pulled down with other oil services, I don't think the market trully understands this company.
    Feb 10, 2012. 05:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Eagle Ford Compares To The Bakken [View article]
    Mobywhite,

    I do believe that the condensate window is a little better than the Bakken based on these Eagle Ford wells being short laterals and generally cost in the $7 million range. If some of these company estimates are correct and EURs are in the 600-1000 Mboe range, then these wells could very well be more profitable than the best Bakken wells. These companies will have to prove these numbers are possible first, and it could take a while to see what longer term production numbers tell us. Have a great night.
    Jan 21, 2012. 12:40 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: What To Buy In 2012 [View article]
    Hi Scott,
    I think the downgrade has more to do with reaching Northland securities price target than anything else. I still own an average size position in my portfolio, and would add to it around $8.50/share, but I don't think I will see that as I think WTI pricing is headed up. If Kodiak continues to execute and sees big improvements from 30 stage fracs, then the stock could double this year (but I think they will get bought before year end). I will be real interested to see what fourth quarter earnings brings. God bless you and your family also.
    Jan 1, 2012. 02:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore Oil: Companies With the Largest Increase From 52 Week Lows [View article]
    Mr. Banks,
    Please elaborate, which lies about the oil sector?
    Jul 13, 2011. 10:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Oil Stocks With Low PEG Ratios [View article]
    I am sorry, It looks as though I was a bit simplistic in my explanation, of this company's management. You are totally correct with respect to its locations. These are all exciting areas that have huge upside. Thank you for the info on why their missed estimates, I appreciate it.
    Mar 24, 2011. 09:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Mines in Wyoming Coming Closer to Production in 2011 [View article]
    Its interesting the Russia is currently buying up uranium, since they are pulling 65% of current usage in 2013. Great job Jeb, I really enjoyed the article.
    Jan 15, 2011. 03:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: EOG Antelope Well Has One-Year Payback At $50/Bbl WTI [View article]
    TOT,

    Dan is probably the only guy I know that could do that may he rest in peace. Strongest hands I think I have ever seen. Some probably think he was an adreniline junky, but more importantly a guy who wanted to be the best at what he did Funny, I think you are the only one that I know that had seen that picture and knew it was a bandana. Most thought it was a swim cap. Picture was in Mexico with my wife and didnt want to burn the top of my head again. North Dakota skin doesnt do well with Mexico sun (as you would imagine).
    As for the picture, we have been getting exposure on Bloomberg, CNBC and started contributing on the news in eastern ND, so we are going with a little more conservative picture.
    Dec 12, 2014. 09:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Emerald Payback Times Point To A Long Winter In The Bakken [View article]
    TimeOnTarget,

    That would depend on area, but its acreage in the Sanish and Tarpon is about as good as it gets. Here are 3 IP rates from Tarpon wells:
    Flatland Federal 11‐4TFH IP: 7,824 BOE/d (10/11/14) Flatland Federal 11‐4HR IP: 7,120 BOE/d(10/10/14) Flatland Federal 11‐4TFHU IP: 5,930 BOE/d (10/12/14)

    It an area of very high pressure coupled with a large amount of natural fracturing. We modeled the first well of this group as a top five for total production. Much better than many of the Parshall Field wells that have been so good.

    Going through its prospects there are a few that may be in jeopardy. Starbuck, Missouri Breaks, Lewis & Clark and Pronghorn will have issues at today's oil price, but Cassandra, tarpon and Sanish are all excellent. Its addition of KOG acreage was a good one. It provides a very large 1st and 2nd tier area to develop if thes low prices linger on.
    Nov 13, 2014. 10:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
4,181 Comments
3,482 Likes