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Michael Filloon

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  • 7 Oil and Gas Stocks with Continued Upside: Part IV [View article]
    Im still in love and still own it. Its my largest position (wish I would have taken profits at $4.75 so I could buy it back here). I promise Aceman I would tell everyone if I sold it. But let me explain my answer. I look at every name out in stock land that is listed in the US. In doing so, I even check out names like BDCO with a 15 million dollar market cap. So when I am asked of a junior, I only include names that have upside based on assets that are not considered legit, or large to this point. I know people will not agree with this, but it is the way I grade these names. I don't consider Samson to be a junior anymore because they own approximately 14000 acres in what I a top notch shale (Marathon just paid 10000 an acre to be neighbors). They also have about 74 million dollars, and a small acreage in the Bakken( forgive all of the approximations, I am shooting from the hip here). After they put their money to work they should have a very large acreage in a prime location. Sorry Aceman for not being clear, but Samson is a much bigger player then the companies I listed. But you should check out LEI, they just partnered with Marathon in the Eagle Ford, and I think there may be more oil there then given credit. Please let me know if you need anything, and to answer your question I am not duping anyone.
    Apr 16 09:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brigham Exploration: The Next Leg Up for Energy Company [View article]
    Brigham is hard not to like. Very impressive stats.
    Apr 13 10:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Oil Stocks With Low PEG Ratios [View article]
    I believe that VOG has been unjustly punished for the rumors surrounding NOG, plus many of these names are trading on fear that oil will retrace at some point. I dont know if this will happen or not, but believe that $100 per barrel of oil is the new normal. I do not own VOG, but would think 15 times forward earnings is an interesting area for this name.
    Mar 25 10:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Oil Stocks With Low PEG Ratios [View article]
    Yahoo Finance offers a five year expect PEG. I have given EOG's one year PEG. Have a great day.
    Mar 25 09:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Oil Stocks With Low PEG Ratios [View article]
    Thank you, I appreciate it.
    Mar 24 11:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium: Sustained Run Makes It a Buy [View article]
    Thank it seems the government has sanctioned much of this but im gonna ride it until its over. I think the current situation will be here for a while. Gotta love inflation. Reagan years may be back.
    Feb 18 04:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodiak Oil and Gas: Exponential Production Growth [View article]
    I agree, management has pulled of some real nice numbers in the short term. It will be more interesting what happens in the long term. I would like to see this name find some way of accelerating growth through the next couple of years.
    Feb 12 11:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources: Lots of Bakken Upside [View article]
    I couldn't have said it better myself Jeep. Thanks for the input. One thing I would add for Professor Banks:

    Although recovery has increased a little, it means alot to companies like BEXP, NOG, and OAS. I began trading in and out of BEXP back in mid 2009. Since then I have made quite a bit of money on this stock. Maybe we are looking at this from different view points. I see the opportunity in the Bakken, Niobrara and Eagle Ford as a very specific way to make money. Although , in general, these areas will only affect a small portion of worldwide oil production, it can provide a very large position in someone's trading account.
    Feb 1 11:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CF Buyout Bid Grossly Undervalues Terra Industries [View article]
    Tim, good insite into the subject. I believe there is a misunderstanding with respect to TRA's business. They were bid down like any other nitrogen business, when theirs is worth much more do to higher margins. Either way you are right and these companies were good apart, but now they look fantastic together. CF has well positioned themselves for this takeover.
    Jan 21 08:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Recent Kodiak Completions Model 1000+ MBoe [View article]
    lol wut,

    No one tries to drill the lower Bakken silt (unless they want to spend most of their days trying to fish out the bit). Operators are fraccing into it, which increases the number of wells per section.

    There is no doubt that drilling 6 to 8 wells in an interval will reduce recoveries per well, but overall more resource is garnered and IRR% improve. I think you are a little confused as to what an operator is looking for when pad drilling. There will be some communication between wells, but operators are ok with that as long as increased profits are made per well. The tighter the spacing the more resource one well robs from another, but still an operator will increase profits. We tend to focus on such small things that we forget to step back and take a look at the big picture. The Polar/Koala prospects have wells that on average produce EURs of 1000 MBoe.

    The Three Forks wells will do just fine where the lower Bakken silt is present just like it has in other areas. As will pads that produce 32 wells/section. The second bench of the Three Forks will produce just as well as the first, as all the cores throughout have shown the second bench is much like the first. The third bench is where some drop off will be seen but this is present throughout the play as well. The fourth bench on the other hand is good around the Nesson Anticline but it isn't present throughout. You may want to see if you can talk to one of the geologists on the site. Most of the things you are talking about aren't even close to what operators/geologists in the Bakken speak of as fact.
    May 13 11:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KOG Reports Weather Related Miss; Guides Lower; Long-Term Story Strong [View article]

    I think WLL has found that the new completion design works better in lower areas of pressure. When EOG used this in western Williams County it improved the production profile of those wells more than in Parshall Field or Antelope.
    May 3 03:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KOG Reports Weather Related Miss; Guides Lower; Long-Term Story Strong [View article]
    Thanks for the info Z, great as always. A must read.
    May 2 09:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken Update's 2014 Stock Picks: Small Operator's Well Design Outperforms In North Dakota [View article]

    Management has done a good job of controlling costs, but more importantly it's well results have been excellent. Looking at the area, it has been well above the average model in ND. I think AXAS will continue to outperform, but I think the smaller names need to be followed a little closer. What will matter the most is when they get their completions done. Production will be very clumpy, so we should see some big moves this year.
    Feb 18 12:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken Update's 2014 Stock Picks: Small Operator's Well Design Outperforms In North Dakota [View article]
    Caiman Valores,

    I agree Whiting has not been the most consistent operator around, but I think much of it's under performance had more to do with a lack of spending on good well design. I had reported on several occasions on how good Whiting's acreage is, but it's lack of spending on water and proppant and poor source rock stimulation provided for lackluster results (higher rate of depletion). I am hoping it's adoption of the EOG style completion will provide a 30% or so increase in production with about the same costs. I really hope they take this opportunity to become a better company.
    Feb 18 12:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update's 2014 Bakken Stock Picks: The Bakken Operators [View article]

    That's a very good question, and maybe the better question is Will Kodiak have positive cash flows before it is bought? The stock is cheap at these levels in my opinion, but I wasn't real excited about the Liberty purchase. That's not to say I didn't like the acreage and/or company because both were great and I liked the price paid as well. My problem is it creates uncertainty for investors as to when the purchases will stop.
    Jan 15 06:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment