Michael Fitzsimmons

It's Going to Get Ugly

anarchist: i agree with you. note SA never publishes this type of article, and i have submitted several. the reason, of course, is that advertisers don't want to see this kind of talk (other than the precious metals dealers!). but yeah, the great majority of americans are completely ignorant of what is going on, but i suppose it's easier for them to be happy existing in life's day-to-day routines without worrying about such things...

doubleguns: yup, i came to the same conclusion - it will be up to the states to drive fixing the US government. if enough states go bankrupt to the point bond sales can't be floated, things will have to change. we're not too far from that point now. the next big oil spike will probably see that happen, and i certainly think that will be within 3 years. i mean, if oil is at $80 during the "great recession", what will it go to when the world economy starts growing again?

MarkBern: you ask a good question "how does it get started". well, you can of course ask your state's governors and congressional members, but don't expect them to support it because guess what? they are living high on the hog. i don't think it will happen until civil disobedience gets much greater than you see today. gasoline rationing and hunger and crime will most likely make it happen (unfortunately). btw, i had to laugh at the more strategic energy dept comment...that implies there is anything strategic about it currently (and there obviously isn't). energy secretary chu is exactly the WRONG guy at the WRONG time. to be "agnostic" about America's greatest domestic energy resource (natural gas) is, quite simply, criminal.

HTLove: and that is why the US gov doesn't support natural gas transportation - because they can't control it!! i mean once an american can refuel their vehicle in their garage off the natural gas feed, they lose all control over that person's ability to be mobile, and they WANT control of everyone's mobility. that is why i always say a Civic GX and a "Phill" in every garage is REAL freedom...certainly not the kind of "freedom" bush used to wax poetically about at every opportunity.

doubleguns: yup, keep the constitution and bill of rights. pretty much start over after that. outlaw lobbyists on the grounds of congress, term limits up front, balanced budget amendments, real money backed by gold and silver reserves, and campaign finance reforms. all good places to start.

Recycling U.S. Coins into Silver

rosco1776: i missed your post earlier. yes, the U.S. does import natural gas, but most of that is legacy canadian imports back when the U.S. though they were out of nat gas and canadian had very cheap and accessible supply. they shale plays have changed everything! even the LNG terminals are not receiving imports and the foreign supply that was supposed to come to the U.S. are now going to europe and asia. unfortunately, our policymakers don't understand the strategic importance of the new shale production and are simply not taking advantage of it. that's because the US government is run by lawyers. china's is run by engineers, and they would be all over that natural gas like bees to honey (especially if they had the 2.1 million mile natural gas pipeline distribution system we have in this country!).

Recycling U.S. Coins into Silver

blacksilver: the barter question you hit on was exactly the reason why i think investors should own both gold and silver. i think gold will probably be the best store of wealth, but like you said, when it comes to bartering, would you rather barter with a one ounce silver eagle or a one ounce gold eagle? so in the future the silver will be better for bartering, the gold as a mechanism to store wealth (and for bartering for big ticket items - like maybe a cow 100 (10?) gallons of gasoline ;)

babysdaddy: yeah, and another reason is seperating out the real silver - that's time and expense. who knows, in the future they might be a reason to just melt down a silver eagle for the actual silver. although this is against the law and i personally would never do such a thing.

joe silver: thanks for the info and i'll take your word that you know what you are talking about simply because you had better with a handle like "joe silver". that said, i'll stick with the .999 and .9999 pure silver eagles and maples (respectively).

dannyfurman: you bring up an interesting point...i guess it depends on how much you trust the seller and how good you are at spotting fakes. i have a hard time believing one of the bigger and more reputable dealers would trade silver eagles because one report of that would put them out of business. of course, it may have already happened and i just don't know about it. please let me know if you know of cases where that has happened and which dealer it was. thanks.

ConocoPhilips: Time to Embrace Natural Gas Transportation

long_on_oil: the negative EPS you site is due to a huge one time write down. i don't think this charge should be forecasted forward as an indication of the future. COP has generated large positive net income for years and years, and even after the blistering it has taken in the market during this crisis, a look at its 5 and 10 year performance is not bad at all. yes the debt is more than i'd like to see. that said, it isn't exhorbitant, and i think with oil prices where they are today ($70's!), and the divestitures the company is planning to take to pare down that debt, you may be underestimating COP's earnings going forward. the company has some mature low cost oil producing fields which are cash cows. not only that, it is clear that mulva wants to shine up his reputation before leaving...a reputation that certainly has taken a hit with the developments of the past year or two. he could salvage it easily by simply joining pickens, mcclendon, hefner, and others and push for U.S. policymakers to adopt natural gas transportation. increased demand will take the yo-yo out of natural gas prices, and then mulva's strategy of natural gas assets will enable both his reputation (and the stock price) to appreciate. unfortunately, mulva is silent on the issue....which i for one simply cannot understand.

longoil: well, to each his own. i certainly like XOM, BP, and CVX as well, and have suggested those companies many times in my articles. certainly BP and CVX had the best earnings this quarter, and BP has the best dividend of the lot. that said, from a stock appreciation perspective, at these levels, i am not so sure COP might not have the best potential gain over the next year or two. if they announce some asset sales at decent prices, and people see how the debt is indeed being reduced, and i have no doubt that will be the case, i think the leaner-meaner COP might be looked at in a much different light then today's.

doublebogey: well, that might be a birdie of an idea. the distributers get paid no matter what the price. you probably know alot more about them than i do, so i'll just say you certainly could be right.

ConocoPhilips: Time to Embrace Natural Gas Transportation

long_on_oil: hey, i love BP and STO. of all the earnings released, i think you'd have to say that BP and CVX had the best quarters.

Mmarrk: i have sent emails to Conoco's BOD. no reply, and obviously no success. in light of all their investments in natural gas plays, i just don't undertand COP management's aversion to natural gas transportation. what jim cramer tonite, he's in OK interviewing some natural gas heavyweights. i am sure they'll be talking about it. the U.S. will have to migrate to natural gas transportation at some point - we'll have no choice. the question is, will the government wait until there is rioting in the streets, or will we do it before a crisis. of course, i think last year's $145/barrel oil was a crisis...

auto44: if you are compariing to the US dollar, it's a good question, but a better question maybe this: china, india, brazil, france, and germany have all said they are in favor of a new world reserve currency not based on a single country. so, the real long-term question is this: what will the U.S. dollar be valued to wrt a new world reserve currency based on a basket of currencies, gold, and silver? the answer to this question, i believe, is: "less than it is valued today".

Recycling U.S. Coins into Silver

bug in SA...i'll post again (sigh...)

GoldBarron: thanks for the good info

Dopamine: thank you.

sdavid: well, if i am gonna invest in silver, the silver eagles are .999 pure silver, and silver rounds or bars are usually the same (or .9999). the premium isn't that much (imho) and i think these would be great bartering chips.

blacksilver: i guess my question is, why buy these low percentage silver coins at all? if you're going to invest in silver as a precious metal, why not just buy pure silver coins? you can barter with them, and as an investment, i would also think they'd be easier to sell. to each his/her own i suppose.

speedspirit: sorry, but i don't agree. depsite all the clamor about water table damage, the track record of natural gas drilling over the past 25 years or so is actually excellent considering the huge number of wells drilled and the very low rate of ecological or water table damage. compare that against coal, where there are many well documented serious problems, our rivers, lakes and streams are full of mercury, and the fish in these waters are chock full of all kind of toxic metals. like i tell people who want to argue this with me, go down to the tennessee river, catch some fish and eat them. that is, if you can find any still alive that have the strength to bite your hook!

doubleguns: awesome post!! good one man.

SSALarry: two things: first, you should have known what the energy production of those installations would be prior to installing them so there shouldn't have been a big surprise. secondly, your discussion is missing the bigger point: transportation. transportation accounts for 70% of U.S. oil consumption. the only way we can signficantly reduce our addiction to foreign oil is to adopt natural gas in the transportation sector. i'm all for wind and solar, but they generate electricity and where are the affordable electric cars? meantime, we're sitting on abundant, clean, and cheap natural gas reserves, doing nothing, and continuing to import foreign oil. seriously stupid policy. btw, watch jim cramer's mad money tonite, he went to OK and is talking to some natural gas heavy weights. i am sure this subject will be broached.

BoxedMerlot: you said: "And I still find it amusing to call the trading of goods and services with silver rounds “bartering”." can you explain why you find it amusing?

Recycling U.S. Coins into Silver

GoldBarron: thanks for the good info!

Dopamine: thank you.

sdavid: well, if i am gonna invest in silver, the silver eagles are .999 pure silver, and silver rounds or bars are usually the same (or .9999). the premium isn

Recycling U.S. Coins into Silver

brianr: actually, i bought some silver bars that were only $0.59 over spot, and the silver eagles were $1.79 over spot. i don't mind paying that premium for minted coins that are .999% pure silver. Additionally, if we do have a currency crisis and devolve into a barter system, what would you rather barter with - junk silver or a US mint silver dollar?

GoldBarron: yeah, but what percent silver and copper??

yellowhoard: well, hopefully you could securely hide both. i'd hate to place all my precious metals bets in either gold or silver, why not own some of both?

jimbo: yeah, same as the last administration. we've had two terrible presidents in a row just when we needed the best presidents. very sad, and makes one wonder just who is behind the curtain turning the knobs....

options: yeah, i just worry about bartering with palladium.

speedspirit: you overpaid bud.

anarchist: the american public are sheep. they don't get riled about stupid wars, $145/barrel oil, or fascists in control of the gov giving their tax money away to rich executives. americans are asleep at the switch, and we deserve the disfunctional government we had. i mean look, the american public gave bush a second term after witnessing his first term! i rest my case.

brianr: i just don't see the logic in junk silver when you can buy .999 (or canadian .9999) pure silver for a slight premium and have some quality silver. i dunno, am i missing something here?

taxpro: if you are referring to silver eagles, they are .999% silver. if you are talking about dimes, there is no way dimes are 90% silver. so, i'm not sure what coinage you are referring to...could you clarify?

bill: you can do much better than ebay, even kitco is better than ebay. greenspan supported the gold standard?? i don't think so...greenspan was the start of the big problem!! and bernanke is just another goon following in his sloppy footsteps. wrt to the minting values, you're correct, but i think the amount on the coins is irrelevant at this point. it's only ounces that matter.

Recycling U.S. Coins into Silver

MellowGuy: yup - and not only should we be getting people off fuel oil for home heating, but we should also be using natural gas for electricity generation (shut down the coal plants) and for transportation. Natural gas, not coal, should be "America

Conoco Philips and Natural Gas Transportation

options: wow! top 10, congradualtions ;)

Conoco Philips and Natural Gas Transportation

hey options: yeah, the lukoil coments weren't surprising...it would be a very easy way to pay down debt, but it certainly doesn't make strategic long-term sense. i mentioned it in the article because i recently got in a big debate with someone the other day about the issue - i told him there was no way COP would bail on the lukoil relationship. wrt oil sands, did you read this recent SA post:

seekingalpha.com/artic...

i don't know about this analysis...what do you think? i believe they're in the oil sands for the long term. otherwise, why the refinery upgrade to handle its heavy crude? it would only make sense to sell the oil sands stake if the refinery was included in the deal, and perhaps it does make sense to shrink the refinery side of the business, i dunno. certainly COP has suffered from an above average percent in its refining business as compared to peers. that said, i still think COP is a steal at $50/share. i'll just hold mine and collect the dividend. i sure wish XOM would take a fresh look at their paltry dividend!!

BP Income Statement Analysis for September 2009 Quarter

is not to like about BP? in an era of when worldwide oil supply won't keep up with worldwide oil demand, and with a currency on the fritz, American investors should own stocks like BP and StatOil (STO).

BP Income Statement Analysis for September 2009 Quarter

Great dividend, significant production increases, what

Green Investors: Stop Hating Coal; Carbon Capture and Storage Here to Stay

correction: "....than does??" should be "...than does natural gas??" point being, if sequestration is so expensive and works (i would agree with the expense, not the "works"), then natural gas is 50% more efficient without spending a dime (as compared to coal)!!

Green Investors: Stop Hating Coal; Carbon Capture and Storage Here to Stay

as i was saying... CCS is a myth except in those cases where CO2 can be pumped into the Earth in order to get something out (like natural gas). since the vast majority of existing coal plants are not near natural gas reserves, they will continue to spew pollutants into the air and water. even if sequestration works (it doesn't), what are you going to do with the cocktail of toxic remnants (mercury, lead, etc. etc.) leftover from burning coal? if you don't think this is a problem, go catch some fish in the Tennessee River and eat them. further, even if sequestration did work (it doesn't) wouldn't it be idiotic to start with a fuel (coal) that has 50% more CO2 emissions than does coal?? coal is a failed 20th century fuel. natural gas is abundant, clean, and cheap! make way for the 21st century clean gaseous fuels: solar, wind, natural gas, and hydrogen.