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Michael Fitzsimmons

 
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  • Record Oil Sands Production Should Propel Suncor To $40 By Year-End [View article]
    Val Halla - I take exception to your characterization of the article as "deceptive"., especially since you provided no specific instance in which proves the accusation. Imports have "collapsed"? You call $1 billion a day a "collapse"? That is a ridiculous assertion. As for Mayan - it is not top-of-the-line crude - Bakken is. You say oil sands are not in demand, yet I provided proof in the article that Canada is the largest exporter to the US and the large majority of the crude exported is from the oil sands. As for Nigeria, it exports mostly light sweet, and it is the Bakken and Eagle Ford that have knocked it for a loop, not exports from Canada. With respect to your NGV/"electrics" comment, that is a matter of opinion. If you are talking pure EVs (and not hybrids), the number of NGVs in the US dwarfs the total number EVs. Lastly, I suggest before you call any SA contributor's article "deceptive", that you do a little research and work on your own "facts".
    Sep 7 04:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nat Gas Transportation: China Is Trouncing The U.S. At Its Own Game [View article]
    MightyYar: while I will concede a natural gas pressure vessel (tank) cost more than a standard gasoline tank, your "generous" assumption that an NGV (like a Civic GX) will still cost $5,000 more is, well, not generous. I believe you are underestimating the efficiencies of volume production. How about the Fiat natural gas vehicles - they aren't $5,000 more. People in the US have been brainwashed into thinking there is this huge extra cost associated with NGVs. That is primarily because nearly all NGVs in the US (other than the Civic) are ***conversions*** by aftermarket service providers rather than OEM built at the factory. This is the primary reason for the extra costs of NGVs in America and why conversions run in the $5-7k range. Add in all the regulatory hurdles the EPA mandates and re-certification costs, and you have a totally ridiculous scenario for the country that leads the world in production of natural gas and also has the lowest price.
    Sep 7 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • StatOil: How Big Is The Bay Du Nord Discovery? [View article]
    That's a great question englishlab. From my perspective, the government of Norway reducing its stake would be a good thing as gov. ownership is often used by American investors as a reason to avoid the stock. At the same time, the government stake has enabled it to get involved in order to prevent oil worker strikes that could impact production. I would assume a government sale of any significant stake would be tendered to large institutional in blocks big enough not to affect the day-to-day trading of the stock in a negative way by flooding the market with shares to be sold.

    I'm not sure if you read my previous comments on the dividend, but the government has recently passed legislation which will enable STO to pay a quarterly dividend as opposed to once a year. This is a positive and my source at STO tells me STO is busy looking at exactly how to implement a new plan.
    Sep 7 10:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Oil Sands Production Should Propel Suncor To $40 By Year-End [View article]
    Hi churn: I can understand your concern. The overall market has been strong in 2013 and we are entering a seasonally risky time with memories of 9/11 and previous October plunges still fresh in investors' minds. And, as you pointed out, the Syria issue is stoking geopolitical fears. However, as I pointed out in a recent article, the physical oil market has been much more impacted by production interruptions in Libya. All that said, Suncor and WCS suppliers in general seems to be quite insulated from worldwide oil supply demand issues since their primary market is the US and they have little or no export capability beyond the US. US refiners, after decades of infrastructure expenditures to process Canadian heavy still demand the product and is a factor in me putting a BUY rating on Suncor. Look for a great Q3 from the company. That said, befoer you buy more shares, you may want to solicit other opinions. S&P's latest report also has a BUY on the shares. Good luck whatever you decide.
    Sep 7 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Oil Sands Production Should Propel Suncor To $40 By Year-End [View article]
    That's exactly right Polar - I should have mentioned the fact that the growth shown in August was primarily due to the low-CAPEX barrels CEO Steve Williams discussed on the last conference call:

    "That leads me to profitable growth. In our last call, I announced our plans to add 100,000 barrels per day of new Oil Sands production through de-bottlenecking and expansion of existing assets. Some people questioned our ability to deliver these new barrels. Today I want to reiterate my confidence in this growth plan. These new barrels are low risk, high return and very real. In fact we’ve already begun to unlock new production capacity. "
    Sep 7 05:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StatOil: How Big Is The Bay Du Nord Discovery? [View article]
    Hi Craig - yes, that apparently is the knock on STO, and it applies to some other big oil companies I can think of as well. That said, production interruptions in Libya have taken significant barrels off the market, and most of these barrels go to the EU which STO serves. As a result, Brent is up about 11.5% over the past 3 months and STO is actually down a half-a-percent. Just seems odd to me .... especially considering the recent divestiture STO made got high marks as being favorable for the company. Longer term, the issue you mentioned (cap-ex and lead times) is the over-riding factor, but recent action in the stock has surprised me. Regardless, I've got used to looking at STO as a relatively safe 4-5% CD.
    Sep 6 07:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Oil Sands Production Should Propel Suncor To $40 By Year-End [View article]
    Sarfaraz - Wow, 300 .... I had no idea - I need to get out more ;) But yes, Q3 is looking very strong and although the market was slow to react to the monthly oil sands production numbers yesterday, the stock was up almost 2% today in a relatively flat market. Have a great weekend.
    Sep 6 04:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StatOil: How Big Is The Bay Du Nord Discovery? [View article]
    TnT: thanks for the link to the excellent Bay du Nord slide - I wish I had found that for the article instead of the picture I used. Yes, the Norwegians appear to be slow to talk and quite methodical by I am not complaining - except I wish they'd change the dividend from once a year to quarterly. STO has certainly made some big discoveries the last few years, and I am quite surprised with the turmoil in the Middle East (especially production interruptions in Libya), that STO's stock hasn't benefited from being more since the company is a secure source of oil for the EU.
    Sep 6 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westport: Joint Ventures Hide Major Catalysts [View article]
    Excellent analysis on WPRT. Thanks for the reference link-up and keep up the good work!
    Sep 6 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A $200 Million Compressed Air Energy Storage Contract Boosts Dresser-Rand Group [View article]
    Bloomberg reports GE a possible suitor for Dresser-Rand:

    http://bloom.bg/14xUXqA

    What a jewel that would be for GE if they could pull it off. Siemens would be in big trouble.
    Sep 6 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Oil Sands Production Should Propel Suncor To $40 By Year-End [View article]
    Thanks Carl - have a great weekend.
    Sep 6 03:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nat Gas Transportation: China Is Trouncing The U.S. At Its Own Game [View article]
    Add the refiners too Steve. They don't want to have to compete with natural gas at $2/gallon (and even cheaper if you live in places like OK and UT) when they can sell gasoline at $3.60-$4.25/gallon.
    Sep 5 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nat Gas Transportation: China Is Trouncing The U.S. At Its Own Game [View article]
    Right on Yank! The US could easily have a natural gas refueling infrastructure on the entire interstate highway system just for the money wasted on "clean coal" and all the battery companies that went bankrupt (and were sold to the Chinese for pennies on the dollar). Add that to the ridiculous Bush ethanol mandates that have not only been continued under Obama, but expanded (!), and it's clear Congress is on the take when it comes to energy policy. It's a very sad state of affairs considering the US is still, despite the increase in domestic oil production, importing about $1 billion worth of foreign oil per day.
    Sep 5 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nat Gas Transportation: China Is Trouncing The U.S. At Its Own Game [View article]
    Hi timbo - actually, I don't remember a discussion about transporting LNG and the cooling/warming issue, so I am not sure a correction was needed. You are correct that LNG being transported in trucks is generally not cooled. But here is what happens to LNG in an insulated vessel (you're "giant thermos") while being transported:

    Sooner or later, the LNG will warm and vaporize. LNG is typically stored at its boiling point for where it is destined for use (usually atmospheric pressure). As the vapor boils off, heat for the phase change cools the remaining liquid. Because the insulation is typically used is very efficient, only a very small amount of boil off is necessary to maintain temperature. The phenomenon is called "auto-refrigeration."
    Sep 5 05:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nat Gas Transportation: China Is Trouncing The U.S. At Its Own Game [View article]
    And to think you guys might have been talking about me. Regardless, it's a nice pun :)
    Sep 5 05:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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