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Michael Fitzsimmons

 
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  • Record Oil Sands Production Should Propel Suncor To $40 By Year-End [View article]
    That's exactly right Polar - I should have mentioned the fact that the growth shown in August was primarily due to the low-CAPEX barrels CEO Steve Williams discussed on the last conference call:

    "That leads me to profitable growth. In our last call, I announced our plans to add 100,000 barrels per day of new Oil Sands production through de-bottlenecking and expansion of existing assets. Some people questioned our ability to deliver these new barrels. Today I want to reiterate my confidence in this growth plan. These new barrels are low risk, high return and very real. In fact we’ve already begun to unlock new production capacity. "
    Sep 7 05:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StatOil: How Big Is The Bay Du Nord Discovery? [View article]
    Hi Craig - yes, that apparently is the knock on STO, and it applies to some other big oil companies I can think of as well. That said, production interruptions in Libya have taken significant barrels off the market, and most of these barrels go to the EU which STO serves. As a result, Brent is up about 11.5% over the past 3 months and STO is actually down a half-a-percent. Just seems odd to me .... especially considering the recent divestiture STO made got high marks as being favorable for the company. Longer term, the issue you mentioned (cap-ex and lead times) is the over-riding factor, but recent action in the stock has surprised me. Regardless, I've got used to looking at STO as a relatively safe 4-5% CD.
    Sep 6 07:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Oil Sands Production Should Propel Suncor To $40 By Year-End [View article]
    Sarfaraz - Wow, 300 .... I had no idea - I need to get out more ;) But yes, Q3 is looking very strong and although the market was slow to react to the monthly oil sands production numbers yesterday, the stock was up almost 2% today in a relatively flat market. Have a great weekend.
    Sep 6 04:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StatOil: How Big Is The Bay Du Nord Discovery? [View article]
    TnT: thanks for the link to the excellent Bay du Nord slide - I wish I had found that for the article instead of the picture I used. Yes, the Norwegians appear to be slow to talk and quite methodical by I am not complaining - except I wish they'd change the dividend from once a year to quarterly. STO has certainly made some big discoveries the last few years, and I am quite surprised with the turmoil in the Middle East (especially production interruptions in Libya), that STO's stock hasn't benefited from being more since the company is a secure source of oil for the EU.
    Sep 6 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westport: Joint Ventures Hide Major Catalysts [View article]
    Excellent analysis on WPRT. Thanks for the reference link-up and keep up the good work!
    Sep 6 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A $200 Million Compressed Air Energy Storage Contract Boosts Dresser-Rand Group [View article]
    Bloomberg reports GE a possible suitor for Dresser-Rand:

    http://bloom.bg/14xUXqA

    What a jewel that would be for GE if they could pull it off. Siemens would be in big trouble.
    Sep 6 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Oil Sands Production Should Propel Suncor To $40 By Year-End [View article]
    Thanks Carl - have a great weekend.
    Sep 6 03:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nat Gas Transportation: China Is Trouncing The U.S. At Its Own Game [View article]
    Add the refiners too Steve. They don't want to have to compete with natural gas at $2/gallon (and even cheaper if you live in places like OK and UT) when they can sell gasoline at $3.60-$4.25/gallon.
    Sep 5 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nat Gas Transportation: China Is Trouncing The U.S. At Its Own Game [View article]
    Right on Yank! The US could easily have a natural gas refueling infrastructure on the entire interstate highway system just for the money wasted on "clean coal" and all the battery companies that went bankrupt (and were sold to the Chinese for pennies on the dollar). Add that to the ridiculous Bush ethanol mandates that have not only been continued under Obama, but expanded (!), and it's clear Congress is on the take when it comes to energy policy. It's a very sad state of affairs considering the US is still, despite the increase in domestic oil production, importing about $1 billion worth of foreign oil per day.
    Sep 5 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nat Gas Transportation: China Is Trouncing The U.S. At Its Own Game [View article]
    Hi timbo - actually, I don't remember a discussion about transporting LNG and the cooling/warming issue, so I am not sure a correction was needed. You are correct that LNG being transported in trucks is generally not cooled. But here is what happens to LNG in an insulated vessel (you're "giant thermos") while being transported:

    Sooner or later, the LNG will warm and vaporize. LNG is typically stored at its boiling point for where it is destined for use (usually atmospheric pressure). As the vapor boils off, heat for the phase change cools the remaining liquid. Because the insulation is typically used is very efficient, only a very small amount of boil off is necessary to maintain temperature. The phenomenon is called "auto-refrigeration."
    Sep 5 05:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nat Gas Transportation: China Is Trouncing The U.S. At Its Own Game [View article]
    And to think you guys might have been talking about me. Regardless, it's a nice pun :)
    Sep 5 05:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Australian Dollar Due For A Rally? [View article]
    Hi Ralph - thanks for the link-up to my article on China and natural gas transportation. I am not a currency expert by any means, but it seems to me that resource rich countries like Australia and Canada that don't have to police the world are good places to bet for long-term currency appreciation. I would also throw Norway into that camp. Thanks.
    Sep 5 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reap The Rewards Of Exxon's Dividend For The Long Run [View article]
    Why not buy COP instead if you want to reap a good dividend (4%) versus XOM's 2.9%? COP is also a much more vibrant company, is set for nice organic production growth in 2014, and is expanding margins too. Contrast that with XOM which is spending more money on stock buybacks that favor management over dividends directly to shareholders. Also, XOM's dividend is the absolute lowest in its peer group. Sorry to rain on your parade, but if dividends are what you are after, either COP or CVX offer much better dividend growth alternatives than does XOM.
    Sep 5 09:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nat Gas Transportation: China Is Trouncing The U.S. At Its Own Game [View article]
    That said, I will give Texas credit for its large build out of wind energy and for scuttling plans to build more coal plants in favor of natural gas. However, these were done for economic reasons and not due to any implicit acknowledgment of global warming by the state's policymakers. Most of the politicians still argue vehemently that man made global warming is a farce. Even now, when I talk to my Republican friends in Austin about the water problems, these are due more to the influx of people from California than from the years of drought.
    Sep 5 08:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nat Gas Transportation: China Is Trouncing The U.S. At Its Own Game [View article]
    I agree Hamilton - we need scientists, engineers, and technicians who are up to the task of dealing with 21st century problems. Not only is Congress full of lawyers, in many cases they don't even write the legislation: they let special interest lobbyists lawyers write it. The first thing I would do as President would be to pass an executive order to remove anyone not elected by the American people from the Capitol while legislation is being written.
    Sep 5 08:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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