Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Michael Fitzsimmons  

View Michael Fitzsimmons' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Energy Recovery: Fresh Water Is Being Taken For Granted [View article]
    I have better luck in the past calling them directly.
    May 26, 2015. 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Fresh Perspective [View article]
    Hi again Fred - for COP's onshore domestic shale production from the Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Permian, I haven't seen one analyst predict that WTI would fall if the US lifted the export ban. Currently WTI is trading at a $5.50/bbl discount to Brent and it has recently been trading closer to a $7/bbl discount. Considering that much of the shale oil is very high quality (Bakken crude is perhaps one of the highest quality crudes on the planet), most analyst see a quick pop in WTI were the export ban lifted. As I said in the article, if the US became a major exporter of high quality shale, I would not be surprised to see it trade at a premium to Brent. I don't agree with that lifting the export ban would cause lower crude oil prices. It may cause Brent to decline a bit because of the higher competition, but for share oil producers it would absolutely be bullish development.
    May 26, 2015. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Fresh Perspective [View article]
    Hi Fred - I appreciate your perspective and yes, anything is possible, especially if oil goes back into the 40's and stays there.
    May 26, 2015. 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Fresh Perspective [View article]
    Hi Hank890: In retrospect I wish I had DRIP'd the divs, but I was worried about the tax complications if I sold - but I have never sold any COP. I retired earlier than I expected to, and I can tell you that those COP dividends have been really nice these last few years. PSX too!
    May 26, 2015. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Fresh Perspective [View article]
    Hi Random - as I said, I follow your logic. I agree also with points 2 & 3 above, although I might quibble with (1) if the implication is that oil demand is slowing - because it isn't, it is growing.

    It's kind of ironic though, especially if you look at COP closely, the Saudi "price discovery" strategy was supposed to knock out shale production. It hasn't really done that (at least not yet) and may not to any significant degree as COP obviously plans to exploit the Eagle Ford quite heavily. Meantime, it is the large cap-ex long-lead time projects that are going to be hit the hardest going forward: off-shore deep-water, large capacity LNG plants, etc. etc. And the lack of those large projects that have relatively low decline will end up affecting oil prices again in the future. So as they say, the solution to high oil prices is high oil prices. And I believe the opposite is true as well: the solution to low oil prices is low oil prices.
    May 26, 2015. 05:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Fresh Perspective [View article]
    Hello Random Logic - follow your logic which was anything but random. Note that this article did not pound the table to BUY COP now, or to sell, for that matter. It was simply a different perspective than those that are lighting their hair on fire because the company will likely outspend cap-ex+dividends this year. Those who read my work consistently know that I am now, and have been for quite some time, much fonder of selected midstream operators, MLPs, and refiners in the current environment. And on that front, I think COP's spin-off, Phillips66 (PSX), represents excellent value today.
    May 26, 2015. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Fresh Perspective [View article]
    As I shareholder, I do thank you! Keep up the good work at APME.
    May 26, 2015. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Fresh Perspective [View article]
    Yup, 1.245 billion shares (fully diluted) at the end of Q1. So for $5/share we'd need to see a $6.2 billion judgement out of the $30 billion in total claims.
    May 26, 2015. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Recovery: Fresh Water Is Being Taken For Granted [View article]
    Oh - haha, thought that was directed at me, my mistake. I do believe Conoco bailed because the cost of these systems are not recovered quickly, they are long-term investments to increase efficiencies. At present, COP is being criticized for out-spending cap-ex+dividends, so I can certainly see them taking a pass on a long-term efficiency investment. As for the legal and severance issues, I agree there should have been more transparency there. While some of those settlements were likely confidential, Gay's lack of details is troublesome. With respect to your verticle integration, can you share more details on that idea? I think the company's future (as was its past) will be pretty much dictated by PX contracts to large desal megaprojects, and to a lessor extent turbos and pumps. I am sure the sales team attempts to sell as many pumps and turbos as it can when it makes a PX sale. In my opinion, small scale desal plants simply don't have the efficiencies of large scale plants, which is why you seldom see small-sized SWRO plants. It's taking an quite expensive solution and making it even more expensive.
    May 26, 2015. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Fresh Perspective [View article]
    Hi liongterm and thanks for reading and for your comments. With respect to foreign investing for oil companies, it's obviously a critical piece of the puzzle. COP has excellent producing assets in many parts of the world. Consider that the company's Jasmine wells in the North Sea are the most prolific wells in the portfolio:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    And that is a good place to be considering European gas prices are very favorable. Also, for those who think COP is a US domestic centric O&G producer, I like to point out the importance of the APME segment (Asia and Middle East), which contributed $396 million of adjusted earnings in Q1, by far the most profitable operating segment in the company. See slide 5 of this presentation:

    http://bit.ly/1cgmdnj

    Going forward, it will be interesting to see COP's strategy with respect to the opening up of Mexico's O&G industry.
    May 26, 2015. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bellatrix Successfully Completes Construction and is Currently Commissioning its Deep Cut Gas Plant at Alder Flats [View article]
    Alder Flats is an important and critical milestone for BXE. Bullish for Keyera as well.
    May 26, 2015. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Recovery: Fresh Water Is Being Taken For Granted [View article]
    bkayoc: While you may not want to see it, there was much objective criteria shown in the article, as well as criticism of the company. The recent lousy earnings report is there for all to see in the piece, as is mention of the increased G&A costs due to legal and severance costs that you mentioned in your comment. As for the turnaround, yes, I got back into the stock and as the article mentioned that move was based on a seemingly more transparent reporting of increased order flows as well as a very strong fundamental: as the title says, the world is taking fresh water for granted and unless you can show me a way to solve this problem other than desal plants, that is not only an "objective criteria", but one that I don't see changing. The O&G market is a potential long-term kicker, but as I noted in the article, ERII is and likely will continue to be a story based on the PX product line for the SWRO market. A market they own worldwide. So I think your criticism of the piece was a bit overblown. As for "derriere covering" I have no covering to do. If investors had gotten into ERII when I wrote my first article, they had a chance to make a substantial profits if they took advantage of the price increase as I did. I am simply hoping to repeat that scenario again. And at $3/share, a buyout is not out of the question.
    May 26, 2015. 08:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inter Pipeline: On Track For A 25% Total Return In 2015 [View article]
    Agreed. And as the energy CEOs have been pointing out, the NDP simply can't deliver its objectives of increased education and health care benefits if it runs off energy investment, which is already way down due to the collapse in oil and gas prices. You could actually make a decent case for reducing taxes and royalties on energy companies if you want to increase social spending.
    May 26, 2015. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Fresh Perspective [View article]
    Frac - yes, Venezuela will pay in cash or, as I pointed out in the piece, in heavy crude shipments (more likely). Either way, COP will get compensated once the court hands down their judgement, which seems way overdue. Regardless, a $4-5 billion award would be a very significant event, perhaps as much as $5/share.
    May 26, 2015. 08:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Fresh Perspective [View article]
    go-4-it: Yes, I have heard much skepticism about Venezuela paying every time I mention it. But the facts to really support that view. Exxon got paid on their settlement. Once the international courts issue their verdict, Venezuela will pay. As I pointed out in the piece, COP's leverage to receive payment is the large amount of oil the US still imports from Venezuela. If they don't get the payment in cash, it will be taken in heavy crude. Either way, I have no doubt COP will get paid.

    I hope you did not take this article as "pumping" COP. All I was doing was giving a perspective that is somewhat different from many of the people predicted doom-n-gloom for COP because it no longer has downstream operations. Good luck at $50...at that price COP would yield nearly 5.8%, or more than 2.7x the current US 10-year Treasury note.
    May 26, 2015. 08:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
9,710 Comments
12,203 Likes