Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Michael Fitzsimmons  

View Michael Fitzsimmons' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • What Company Found The Most Oil And Gas In 2013? [View article]
    englishlab: Yes, and meantime I hope STO makes the move to quarterly dividend payout from once yearly. That will enhance the appeal of the ADR to US dividend income oriented investors. Of course I already like it.
    Jan 17, 2014. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Statoil upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank, but shares slip [View news story]
    What company found more oil and gas in 2013 than any other? You guessed it - StatOil (STO):

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 17, 2014. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Company Found The Most Oil And Gas In 2013? [View article]
    Deutsche Bank moments ago upgraded STO to BUY:

    DB sees scope for a 65% value uplift (40% NAV accretion, 25% yield) within five years, which seems underappreciated as shares trade at a 7% discount to peers, and STO Statoil offers investors twice the leverage to exploration as its major peers:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 17, 2014. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Company Found The Most Oil And Gas In 2013? [View article]
    Hi Rafa - No doubt smaller E&Ps have more risk/reward, but I am not sure I would want all my eggs in that basket. As I said in the article, STO is attractive for income oriented investors looking for a safe, stable and significant dividend yield with an oil kicker on the side. STO is not the company to invest in if you are looking for significant capital gains...at least not in the next year or so. On the other hand, it sure beats having your money in a 1% 3 year CD. In addition, odds are STO will start increasing production soon and that should lead to higher dividends and some capital appreciation.
    Jan 17, 2014. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Company Found The Most Oil And Gas In 2013? [View article]
    Thanks Palladium and yes, I remember reading that GEOS was doing some seismic studies for STO on the NCS (Snore). Not sure if GEOS was involved with Tanzania and Bay du Nord, but you have me curious now, so I will look into it...
    Jan 17, 2014. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips 66 Unpredictably Supports Crude Oil Exports - Why? [View article]
    Actually, November petroleum deliveries increased 4.9% year-over-year. Gasoline demand was up 5.4%:

    http://www.api.org~/media/Files/News/201...

    Unemployment in the US is falling, and for the first time since the financial crisis the world is poised to see positive growth in all four of the biggest economies (US, the EU, China, and Japan). So I am not sure why you are so bearish on demand. US refineries continue to capture international market share because they can't compete with the low prices of oil and natural gas feedstocks US domestic refiners pay. While I think you are correct that there will be ample supplies of light-sweet crude in the US, and why that may not be good for domestic oil producers, it is very bullish for PSX as their input costs will likely drop.
    Jan 17, 2014. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips 66 Unpredictably Supports Crude Oil Exports - Why? [View article]
    ousaouparis: Thanks for the comment. It's hard to predict if and when new rail car regulations could come into affect. Certainly it is being looked at. However, the inability to retrofit the large number of rail cars would essentially, as you said, take a large number out of service practically over night. Not sure the government would do that. But I suppose it is possible. If WTI does go to the low $80's as you suggest, PSX will have no trouble making profits. They will export gasoline and diesel to Latin America and Europe and make a mint.
    Jan 17, 2014. 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Own ConocoPhillips For The Long Haul [View article]
    financeminister: It's funny - when I bought my first few shares in Phillips Petroleum, I had very little money and I used to watch that stock like a hawk and thought about selling it all the time. Lucky for me I got really busy with my career and pretty much forgot about it for years and years - I actually had the stock certificate, so it wasn't in an account. When I finally looked at what it was worth, I was like damn, why didn't I buy more shares?!
    Jan 16, 2014. 08:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas Storage Glut Is Over [View article]
    I agree auto44 - natural gas transportation, especially in the US, is the big wildcard. Imagine if the US got serious about it and decided to lop 2-3 million barrels of oil a day out by using natural gas in our cars and trucks. Wow....
    Jan 16, 2014. 08:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas Storage Glut Is Over [View article]
    Ha - another comment from Bill (please see my earlier comment just above). Thx for the link to the EOG presentation. When I look at that slide (page 25), the first thing I notice is the black curve for 2012 wells in the same geology. As far as I know, that black curve is based on actual data, right? No arps equation, just plotting daily production. Now if those wells were profitable (they were), and you know the 2013 wells are better due to the new completion technique, you just drill-baby-drill right? As for EUR estimates, the conference calls I have listened to (EOG, WLL, and KOG for instance), they are all pretty hesitant about predicting EURs saying it is just too early for these newest completion technique wells (at least as of Q3 concalls). However, I will take your word on it that when it comes time to predict EURs that they will use Arps equation (I honestly have no idea). But you know there are some really hot shot mathematicians that are all over this stuff. Me I peaked in math at like age 20 (seriously). But considering the amount of money at stake here, you would think there are some MIT of CalTech nerds engaged on this issue. Regardless, for an investment go-ahead point of view, some of these wells are just no-brainers they are so good - I mean given a realistic oil price and no worldwide economic meltdown in oil prices.
    Jan 16, 2014. 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas Storage Glut Is Over [View article]
    Hey Bill - oops I apologize - I mistakenly thought you were talking about oil decline curves when I see now this particular article is on natural gas. Sorry about that!

    With respect to decline curves I may know why we are kinda going around on this. I am certainly no expert on shale oil type curves, but my perspective on them is somewhat different than yours (I think). You being an oil & gas engineer, you really want to know that curve all the way out to the tail end and you want to model it and be able to predict EURs accurately and lots of long-term trends and such. Me, I am looking at them more from an investment perspective. I mean if I have 2-4 years of real data on a well, and I can plot that out, and know I can drill a well right next to that one with a similar (or better) completion technique into similar geology and know with a high degree of confidence that I can get an acceptable rate of return on that well in a year or two with an $8 million dollar drilling cost (Pronghorn for instance), then I am probably gonna go ahead and drill that well regardless of what the model says about the tail-end of the curve and the ultimate EUR (although that certainly matters). Some of WLL's latest Pronghorn wells are have cumulative 60-day production of 40-50,000 boe. I'm gonna go ahead and drill those wells.

    However, the guys in finance are going to much prefer talking to you, because they need to model long-term revenue, cap-ex requirements, and risk assessment for different cases where the price of oil falls for such-n-such a time and to model different hedging strategies. Me, I am onto the next well haha.

    As for gas, I think that is the case with Marcellus right now. They know some these wells are so prolific they're gonna make money at $4.50 or even $3.50 so they are drilling the hell out of them. Haynesville? Not so much.

    But I am curious - do you find that the work Arps did 40 years ago is still relevant to shale oil & gas decline curves since they modeled conventional reservoirs? I would think they'd be quite different - not just in the various factors and constants, but in over all mathematical structure. Am I in the weeds? Btw, haven't read your links yet (busy day).
    Jan 16, 2014. 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas Storage Glut Is Over [View article]
    Hey Craig - yeah, remember when Shell announced they were gonna build a $20 billion gas-to-liquids plant in Louisiana? Was I the only one scratching my head on that one? Seemed a bit desperate to me given the environment in the US these days. Of course I wasn't shocked to see them come back and cancel it:

    http://bloom.bg/19xOFPA

    But I guess Sasol is going ahead with one.
    Jan 16, 2014. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas Storage Glut Is Over [View article]
    heh heh, no worries okoil - sorry for your troubles but at least I am not the only one having computer issues today. As for Marcellus, I'd hate to underestimate it. It's a monster, and WV and northwest PA haven't even come online to a large extent.
    Jan 16, 2014. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas Storage Glut Is Over [View article]
    Hi Douglas - what you say is true and an interesting point. Of course 2008 was just before domestic natural gas production really took off. All things being equal (i.e. weather), one could alternatively say that the storage range from 2009-today should have been higher than historical averages because production was so much higher. But it is what it is: storage today is down 20% over last year, and ~15% below the 5-year average. I read your profile, so I am curious, do you think this is all because of the "polar vortex" or because there is a lot of supply being head off the market or that dry gas drilling has really slowed down (or stopped) in almost all the shale plays except the Marcellus, or all three? Obviously the weather has had a big impact, but the other two are much more interesting to me.
    Jan 16, 2014. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas Storage Glut Is Over [View article]
    Bill, ok so let me put it this way. Hypothetically speaking: Whiting is going to drill a well in Pronghorn. It's going to drill this well right next to a well it drilled 9 months ago, into geology that is more or less exactly the same, and it is going to use the same completion technique, drill to the same depth, etc. etc. Which would you put more stock in: the UT physics based model, or the type curve on the well next door used in conjunction with other wells WLL has drilled in Pronghorn in the past?

    Also, why do you say that the type curves for shale wells are based on conventional reservoirs? Aren't the decline curves being used in the Bakken (or EF or wherever) based on a wealth of actual shale well data from the same play and same geology? After all, many conventional reservoirs have decline rates of 6-7%/year - the shale operators dream of that slow a decline.
    Jan 16, 2014. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
9,725 Comments
12,226 Likes