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Michael Fitzsimmons  

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  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    Yes, and I would also ask how the invasion of Iraq that took millions of barrels of crude off the market at the same time the Chinese were ramping up consumption helped the US. Seems to me all it did was take oil up to $150/barrel and helped to exacerbate inflation and the financial crisis. Not to mention Iraq is still a war zone after the US dumped trillions into it - what a complete waste of lives and treasure. And now Chinese companies are producing more oil (and receiving it...) than are US companies. Also, I would remind nvg that the ethanol mandates were instituted during the Bush administration. I am no Obama supporter, but we have to look at things objectively regardless of the party in power. In my opinion, both parties have proved themselves totally incompetent.
    Jan 10, 2014. 10:46 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron's Q4 production slips slightly, comparable earnings seen vs. Q3 [View news story]
    Well, the weak production update was a disappointment. That said, I think the refining segment could surprise on the upside. Still bullish on 2014 due to new projects coming online... if it dips below $120, it could be a steal. Meanwhile, you gotta like that $1/share dividend coming in every quarter.
    Jan 10, 2014. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: $1.3 Trillion In U.S. Treasuries But Very Little Clean Water [View article]
    takeone1: I was shocked by CWCO's last quarterly results. You have to wonder how they could be so impacted by rainfall in the Caribbean. That said, I think I missed a good opportunity to pick up some shares when it dropped like a rock after the report. Heard any news on the Mexico project?
    Jan 10, 2014. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: $1.3 Trillion In U.S. Treasuries But Very Little Clean Water [View article]
    I believe ERII will be solidly profitable in 2014.
    Jan 10, 2014. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    Hello NUNAY and thank you for the compliments. Yes, my earlier comment to Watermellons' ultra-deep methane question was a bit off base as my googling of "Davy Jones methane" somehow led me to an article on COP's work on methane hydrates. But I just read this article on Blackbeard which lead me to agree with your comments:

    http://bit.ly/1adMZWx

    Note Exxon is the operator of this well.
    Jan 10, 2014. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    NYTEX: thank you and WTI could fall below $80 if the export ban remains in place. If not for the extreme weather affecting production some of the shale plays, and the trains wrecks, WTI would likely be lower than it trades today. That said, I am about to write an article on why I think the export ban will be lifted, or significantly eased, in 2014.
    Jan 10, 2014. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    TreyT - let me clarify: the EIA does useup-to-date well results - and they are reflected in their spreadsheets. But my point is that the newest wells, with higher production and lower decline rates, have not been online long enough to affect the EIA's legacy production decline curve which is based on wells going back as far as 2007. Many of the newest and best wells didn't come online until 2013. I am not sure, but I would even bet a majority of them came online in the 2H of 2013. So they simply haven't been online long enough to affect the EIA's legacy production decline curve.
    Jan 10, 2014. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    Hi Bill - I had someone send me a personal email on this subject. I did not mean to infer the EIA was not including new wells, they get excellent monthly well data and their Excell spreadsheets are updated accordingly. What I meant to point out was that these new and much more productive wells have simply not be online long enough to have meaningfully affected the legacy production decline curve, the majority of wells which have been on for years now - some since 2007. And yes, obviously they are showing up in the monthly productivity report, but that doesn't directly affect the legacy production decline curve which from my understanding is based solely on well production data.

    I understood what you said. But let me simplify my main point: the EIA's peak production prediction is based largely on the legacy production decline curve, which simply has too much "legacy" built in and not enough "newness" build in. The newest wells are much more productive and most of them didn't come online until 2013, many in the 2nd half (which is why I mentioned 180 day IPs). As a result, the existing legacy production decline curve the EIA is using to forecast peak production does not yet reflect the shallower decline rates of the newest most productive wells.

    As for your argument, you might be mixing two issues as your argument implies what I have been saying (a 40% decline rate is less than a 50% decline rate, right?). If you are talking about the overall production growth of your example, it too will be higher because even though the absolute value of the decline on the more productive well is higher (800 bbls vs 500 bbls) you still have higher production because the more productive well started at 2x the older well (2,000 vs 1,000). So in a way, your example seems to support my opinion in two ways: the decline rates of the newest wells are shallower and overall production growth will be higher.
    Jan 10, 2014. 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    I stand corrected and should have scanned my google results more carefully. Here is an article on Gulf's ultra-deep Blackbeard convential well:

    http://bit.ly/1adMZWx
    Jan 10, 2014. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    Actually I have and wrote an article devoted to the subject of crude exports:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    In a nutshell, I think the crude export ban should be lifted, but only if a the same time the government also adopts some strategic natural gas transportation initiatives.
    Jan 10, 2014. 07:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For 2014: 2 Small Cap Doubles, 2 Mid-Cap 50%ers [View article]
    Wow - HPJ was up 12.9% today (1/9/2014) on more than 6x normal volume. Somebody must have been impressed by the advance lithium-ion battery solutions the company is displaying at CES this week.
    Jan 9, 2014. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    Hi Bill - interesting perspective, but how do you square that with what the the EOG slide shown in the article shows on EF results and with this quote from EOG's CEO Bill Thomas at the BofA conference last November:

    "We brought the technology that we've learned from these other shale plays from the Bakken, from the Eagle Ford and from the other places and we're doing a lot better job at completing these new wells, a lot more sand, a lot more stages, a lot better distribution in the frac along the laterals and the IPs of the wells are excellent and more importantly the decline rates on these newer wells are much shallower. So we're now generating 100% rates of return on our Bakken drilling."

    I think I remember hearing the guys at WLL say similar things about the decline rate on new wells. So if the new wells are "much shallower", and there were a whole bunch of new wells drilled in 2013, many of which the EIA does not yet have even 180-day data on, how can these new wells, once they are included over time, not affect the legacy production decline curve in a positive way (i.e. reduce the slope of decline)? And add to that the fact that, in general, the volumes on the new wells are even higher than the legacy wells. So we have higher production wells falling off at a slower pace. Sounds to me like, net-net, the effect of the new wells will be to reduce the slope of the overall legacy production decline curve.
    Jan 9, 2014. 05:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    Watermellon - thank you and I wish I could help you out with ultra-deep methane but I am somewhat unfamiliar with the economics of lifting methane hydrates. I do know that COP and the DOE performed some work in Alaska and here is one article on the subject.

    http://bit.ly/19VQkyP

    As you can see, there are some unanswered questions that need to be resolved, but my gut tells me there are probably some very large deposits of methane hydrates at the bottom of the world's oceans. I would like to look into this issue more, and if I do, I will leave any worthwhile comments here.
    Jan 9, 2014. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Total U.S. Oil Production Peaks In 2016? [View article]
    TreyT - yes, the printing of easy money effects were counter-intuitive. As you point, it helped enable millions of new barrels of oil and Bcf of natural gas. So, instead of the "easy money creates inflation" scenario, we actually experienced a fall in gasoline and consumer energy prices, which has kept inflation somewhat at bay. I think it is this new oil and gas that has gold wondering what to do at $1220...I have always thought gold prices follow oil, not the other way around.

    All that said, Uncle Sam still under-reports inflation data for its own reasons (COL increases, payments on inflation bonds, etc. etc).
    Jan 9, 2014. 04:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cummins' 12-Liter Nat Gas Engine Will Power Clean Energy Fuels 20% Higher In 2014 [View article]
    Yup, that was pretty much expected with the introduction of the 12-L and was reported back in September:

    http://bit.ly/1acIUSz
    Jan 9, 2014. 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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