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Michael Fitzsimmons  

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  • Are Energy Investors Rotating Out Of Shale Producers And Into Big Oil? [View article]
    I only wish XOM had moved with the S&P over the past 5 years....
    Dec 7, 2013. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Energy Investors Rotating Out Of Shale Producers And Into Big Oil? [View article]
    Well, overbought is debatable. While I agree there was a nice rise in the shale stocks, remember, many had not done much at all for quite some time. Also, I believe the rise was justified based on the production results of the new completion technique. Companies like WLL and KOG have ratcheted production up a notch from what was already a pretty nice growth rate.
    Dec 7, 2013. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Natural Gas Transportation Portfolio: November Update [View article]
    Why will shale oil production decline? Well, first off when I say decline, I am not talking about next year or the year after. I am talking about projections out to 2020 or 2030. After all, you can't expect a field like the Eagle Ford to increase production year after year forever can you?

    The natural gas in the Bakken is being flared because the infrastructure doesn't exists to capture it. Big problem in my opinion and if I had anything to say about it I would regulate against it.

    As for nat gas "subsidies" we are talking about an Energy Policy to start putting a priority on natural gas (the cleanest, cheapest, and most domestic energy source) instead of on the dirtiest, most expensive, and foreign energy sources (coal and oil). Those who always rail about "free markets" simply don't understand that we haven't had "free energy markets" ever in the US. As evidence, just look at the billions the US gov has blown on "clean coal", the ethanol mandates, biofuels, and EV and battery manufacturers all of which were designed by the special interests (i.e. Congress) to keep the US addicted to the status quo: coal and oil (gasoline). Why not do what China, Brazil, the EU, and Russia have done and incentivize and prioritize natural gas transportation: cheaper and cleaner and we don't have to import it at the costs of billions every month. And, we don't have to print money out of thin air to "pay" for it. All that is doing is giving ownership of the future of the US to China.
    Dec 6, 2013. 04:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips 66: Best Play On Domestic Shale? [View article]
    Yes it is. Hopefully this is prelude to a very solid Q4 earnings report.
    Dec 6, 2013. 12:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips 66: Best Play On Domestic Shale? [View article]
    PSX does it again - announcing a new $2 billion to share buyback program:
    Dec 6, 2013. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips 66 announces new $2B share repurchase program [View news story]
    As I wrote recently, PSX is quite possibly the best play on shale U.S.A.:
    Dec 6, 2013. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Best Bet On Booming Worldwide Demand For LNG [View article]
    Well, the BR takeover was one reason COP's stock took a beating some years ago as it led to some huge writeoffs. It was analogous (in some ways) to XOM's purchase of XTO, although XOM's motives also included XTO's technology. The huge increase in nat gas production and supply overhang and the resulting low natural gas prices hit both companies pretty hard. But the point is, once LNG exports start, COP will be sitting pretty good. Heck, they're sitting pretty good now ;)
    Dec 6, 2013. 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache: Fracking Without Fresh Water To Cut Costs [View article]
    lockeptrv - Scooter pointed out one problem, and I think cost would be another, keeping gas a liquid is not cheap. Regardless of what the problems are, the fact that none of the top companies are using LPG for fracking is probably proof enough the concept is lacking.
    Dec 6, 2013. 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dresser-Rand's small-scale unit successfully produces LNG [View news story]
    Good action. Between GE's "MicroLNG" and DRC's "LNGo", the natural gas transportation market has some more cost effective smaller scale solutions.
    Dec 5, 2013. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Best Bet On Booming Worldwide Demand For LNG [View article]
    That is a good question jayhawk and it is hard to quantify. But consider that the Burlington Resources takeover was mostly about buying natural gas production and reserves. In 2012, COP shut-in 100 Mcf/day:

    or about 15-20,000 boe/day. And COP was one of the first to shut-in production in 2010:

    another 20-30,000 boe/day. So COP has huge domestic natural gas production capability, and reserves. Remember, after the takeover of BR, COP was actually the #1 producer of natural gas in the US for awhile.
    Dec 5, 2013. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cummins' New 12-Liter Natural Gas Engine Is A Game Changer For Clean Energy [View article]
    I can elaborate: the US has a fairly conservative estimate of a 100 year supply of natural gas, and that (imho) includes a very expanded use of the fuel in the transportation and electric pwr generation sectors. Those doubting this kind of supply are, in my opinion, simply not looking at the data from the Marcellus, Barnett, and Haynesville shales and are not taking into consideration the large amount of associated natural gas produced by those companies (EOG, WLL, CLR, etc.) who have a priority on oil production.

    But even if there isn't enough natural gas for 100 years (there is...), the point is that natural gas is found in abundance all over the world: Iran, Qatar, Australia, the US, Russia, Australia etc. etc. So to quibble about US natural gas reserve estimates is simply missing the much bigger picture: the worldwide abundance of relatively cheap and clean natural gas in comparison to oil. Such a mistake means this people are, in effect, supporting the status quo: coal and oil. And that is a very bad mistake to make. In my opinion.
    Dec 5, 2013. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYT: Big companies prepared to pay a price for carbon [View news story]
    This bodes well for big natural gas projects like Chevron's Gorgon LNG:
    Dec 5, 2013. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enerplus: Out Of The Woods And Yielding 6% [View article]
    Yes, as I mentioned in the article I believe the plug-n-perf technique was perfected by EOG, most likely in the Eagle Ford first. Whiting has said they got the idea from EOG.
    Dec 5, 2013. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Best Bet On Booming Worldwide Demand For LNG [View article]
    Carbon tax issues will favor LNG over oil/gasoline/diesel:
    Dec 5, 2013. 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Best Bet On Booming Worldwide Demand For LNG [View article]
    Good question Mike and my answer is twofold. First off, if you can believe the natural gas and LNG demand forecasts I showed from the EIA and Chevron, demand in 2025 will outstrip supply by about 30%. In such a scenario, it is more likely that any supply from Mozambique will be sold at prices competitive with existing LNG prices rather than under-cutting the price. Secondly, as reported Chevron has already booked long-term capacity commitments for the large majority of its LNG supply. The most recent contract:

    was typical: Tokyo Electric Power contracted for 0.9 MTPA of LNG for up to 20 years. So it there is price risk, it would appear to be on the 25% of capacity that CVX is holding for spot prices. Yet most of this risk would appear to go back to simple supply/demand forecasts for natural gas, which appear to be extremely bullish. The EU, China, Russia, and Brazil have all passed long-term energy policies prioritizing natural gas transportation. Meanwhile, China is suffering terrible pollution problems by burning so much coal. So to me, the long-term demand outlook for natural gas appears to be excellent.
    Dec 5, 2013. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment