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Michael Fitzsimmons  

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  • Highpower International: Lithium-Ion Battery Sales Will Power Stock Higher In 2014 [View article]
    Ari - I cannot tell you that HPJ will have an indefinite "sustainable cost advantage". What I can tell you is that their new automated production facility is likely to be state-of-the-art and as good of a Li-ion manufacturing plant as there is in China. I can also say that HPJ is growing Li-ion (and Ni-NH) sales at a faster pace than the overall market and growing market share. I can also say HPJ makes only batteries while Sanyo, Panasonic, Sony and the other "big boys" have many other businesses that vie for attention and cap-ex. I don't have a crystal ball on the future, all I can say is what I see now, look at how HPJ has been performing recently, and noting that their biggest problem in 2012 is a lack of capacity for growth. That problem has been fixed with the new facility, so 2014 will very likely see a big growth in sales - and earnings. If so, the stock should follow. Q2 will be the quarter to watch.
    Dec 24, 2013. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Like Exxon Mobil Here, You're Gonna Love Chevron [View article]
    And Buffet sold a big slug of COP before it went on big run as well. You want me to believe what you say, or what Buffet does, but why not just look at real data? I mean if Exxon truly is "above the rest" (as you say), then why has it not proven it over the past 5 and 10 years? How long should shareholders wait for a stock that is "above the rest" to actually *prove it*? If 10 years isn't enough for you...how long is - 15 years? 20? 25 years?? If one has to wait that long for a stock that is "above the rest" to prove it, then by definition it should not be characterized as "above the rest". You can have the last word on it now cause I'm worn out on this subject - but the facts speak for themselves.
    Dec 23, 2013. 09:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Export Ban Pits Shale Producers Vs. Refiners [View article]
    Thanks bbob68 - I learn enjoy the comment sections and learn from them and it's much easier than writing another article ;) I prefer to have a balanced approach from a total portfolio perspective. Favorite natural gas play? Don't feel qualified to offer an opinion here since I haven't really thought about it. I would not that Cabot O&G may be a good place to start due to their prolific Marcellous wells, but I haven't looked closely at the company in quite awhile.
    Dec 23, 2013. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Like Exxon Mobil Here, You're Gonna Love Chevron [View article]
    It's interesting that you would characterize 5 & 10 year returns as "meaningless". Nearly every analyst out there views 5 and 10 year returns on stocks, funds, and investment vehicles as very important indicators of performance. So this isn't some "random time frame", it is probably the most common way to view the long-term performance of two large cap DJIA components.

    I understand you like Exxon. I own it too. But I also own Chevron. I and very well aware of the performance of each stock, as well as their historical performance. The difference between you and I is that I am willing to look at the company with an objective eye, and note that it has under-performed since T. Rex has taken over. I don't care to live so much in the past, but more toward the future. If it was a one or two year thing, then yeah, your argument might hold some water. But we are talking about 5 and 10 years here. That is not an insignificant period of time, at least not to most investors.
    Dec 23, 2013. 04:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Export Ban Pits Shale Producers Vs. Refiners [View article]
    Sorry Frac, your comment got listed directly under one of my comments so I though you aimed it at me and thought it deserved a reply. And yes, on the EU green subsidies: German imports of coal are way up since the bottom fell out of coal prices in the US.
    Dec 23, 2013. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Export Ban Pits Shale Producers Vs. Refiners [View article]
    UTA: yes, as you say, 2014 (like seemingly every year lately) is shaping up to be a very interesting year on the energy front. It's fascinating to me because the oil market really is a worldwide economic & geopolitical influenced market. That is because oil is still the most strategic of all commodities, although some would argue water is. And they might even win that debate.
    Dec 23, 2013. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Export Ban Pits Shale Producers Vs. Refiners [View article]
    Hi TT: Exports to Canada and out of Cook Inlet of Alaska are two exceptions to the US crude export ban.

    Sure, it rewards domestic energy users, but penalizes the shale oil producers, who have almost single handedly kept the American economy going over the past 5 years. Also, if the US were allowed to export that light-sweet, it would bring a premium to heavy/sour oil that the US imports, the price would go up, and the US trade deficit (which has been oil dominated for decades now, and the single biggest reason the Fed has to print money in my humble opinion), would drop. And that is good for all Americans in the long term.
    Dec 23, 2013. 11:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Like Exxon Mobil Here, You're Gonna Love Chevron [View article]
    kbphysicspe: I am surprised you did not specifically mention LNG exports, which is probably the biggest win for XOM on the nat gas front. As for XOM being one of the most shareholder friendly, I would certainly debate you on that. XOM, despite have one of the best balance sheets in the business and a higher credit rating than the US government, has, for years now, paid the absolute lowest dividend in its entire peer group. ConocoPhillips is much more shareholder friendly, as is Chevron. As for XOM's over-emphasis on stock buybacks (2:1 ratio in 2012), it's hard to see how that helped shareholders considering until just recently, the stock had done close to nothing for about 5 years. Thus, my observation is that XOM is very "management friendly", but not necessarily friendly to the ordinary shareholder. At least not how they used to be before T. Rex took over. You could even tell last year management didn't really like raising the dividend as much as they did, but they still aren't even close to getting off the bottom of the dividend yield list. My article: Exxon: Buyback Heavy, Dividend Light, which compares the company against CVX and COP. Done back in March, but still quite informative of the differences between XOM and some of its peers (even though COP is no longer integrated):

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 23, 2013. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Like Exxon Mobil Here, You're Gonna Love Chevron [View article]
    stabros: Not to be argumentative, but my statements on the 5 & 10 returns of the two company is a fact. It is your comment that XOM is "the best company to buy and hold..." that is an opinion. As an opinion, it is certainly debatable. My opinion is different, and it is ok to disagree. However, the 5 & 10 returns speak for themselves, and is factual.
    Dec 23, 2013. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Like Exxon Mobil Here, You're Gonna Love Chevron [View article]
    Wfmhaynes11: I appreciate that comment and it is one often remarked about XOM and there is no doubt it dropped less during the 2008 crisis than almost all others. That said, the XTO buyout seemed to make up for that and put it in the dumps for almost 5 years until just recently. But the argument that XOM is managed for the "long-term", and one that XOM management has repeated over-and-over and over again over the past 5 years...seems to imply other oil companies are *not* managed for the long-term, which is, obviously, ridiculous. All major oil companies are managed for the long-term, if for no other reason because they have to report reserve replacement rations and the life of those reserves at present production rates. When you throw in the fact that almost all big projects are multi-year large cap-ex endeavors, it's almost as though XOM's management is using that "managed for the long-term" mantra as an excuse for a lack of execution and returns over the last few years. I never hear COP or CVX management repeat it over and over like XOM's, yet their stocks have clearly outperformed XOM over the past 5 years, and in the case of CVX, over the last 10 years, and substantially so.
    Dec 22, 2013. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Like Exxon Mobil Here, You're Gonna Love Chevron [View article]
    galicianova: Then you might want to consider an international integrated oil company with a nice dividend, excellent growth prospects, and good management: CVX.
    Dec 22, 2013. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Like Exxon Mobil Here, You're Gonna Love Chevron [View article]
    Yes: I wrote about the 2012 reserve replacement ratios (RRR) for Exxon, Chevron, and Conoco in this article (see the chart):

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 22, 2013. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Export Ban Pits Shale Producers Vs. Refiners [View article]
    TFCAB - thanks and I think the country has seen some tangible benefits already: jobs and lower energy prices. And, if light-sweet fetched what it was worth on the open world market, you would see a big change in the trade deficit.

    But again, I cannot fault your strategy with refiners at this point as the shale oil producers have dropped, some substantially, despite the very rosy production outlook. I am long PSX and like you, I am watching event carefully and looking to get into some of the smaller shale players as opportunities arise (KOG, OAS, and even WLL).
    Dec 22, 2013. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Export Ban Pits Shale Producers Vs. Refiners [View article]
    Thanks Palm - I had no idea. So what does "duty free" mean?
    Dec 22, 2013. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Export Ban Pits Shale Producers Vs. Refiners [View article]
    profit-seeker: Heh heh, I knew you would ask and I tried to find out by googling but didn't get a definitive answer then got busy. I suspect it is languishing just like the "Nat Gas Act", too many powerful special interests lined up against it - and you know who those are. I will try to find out status on this and if I do, will report back right here. Thanks.
    Dec 22, 2013. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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