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Michael Fitzsimmons

 
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  • StatOil: How Big Is The Bay Du Nord Discovery? [View article]
    Yes, and you would never tell by the reaction in the stock...little movement on half the normal volume.
    Sep 9 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips Investor Update: Kashagan, Venezuela, Bone Spring, The Gulf And Drones [View article]
    Hi stuart: hmmm...not sure...I know COP operates some properties for the Permian Basin Royalty trust (PBT), but I am not aware of that assets could revert to COP...let me know if you have anything else to go on.
    Sep 9 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips Investor Update: Kashagan, Venezuela, Bone Spring, The Gulf And Drones [View article]
    Thanks auto44 - I appreciate you reading.
    Sep 9 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips Investor Update: Kashagan, Venezuela, Bone Spring, The Gulf And Drones [View article]
    Okie: well, 2008 was a special case: we had a financial meltdown and a precipitous drop in the price of oil. That was followed by a collapse of domestic natural gas prices. Both the company and the environment today is much different. COP is not overly leveraged in my opinion due to a combination of asset sales and excellent operational execution. I say enjoy the ride!
    Sep 9 07:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips Investor Update: Kashagan, Venezuela, Bone Spring, The Gulf And Drones [View article]
    okie: The current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 18.87, so I'm not sure COP=11.3 necessarily qualifies as "a bit high", especially considering the 4% dividend. While it is higher than most of its peer group, that is because COP has been running rings around them. After all, XOM's PE is 11, and how CVX trades at a multiple below XOM (9.9) I will never understand.

    What does stutter-step mean? Why do you want the stock to go down and a lower PE? A lower PE usually means the market expects less growth going forward. EOG has a PE close to 60 - why? Because it is kicking butt and taking names. COP should be valued higher than XOM because COP management is running rings around XOM and has a low-risk plan to organically raise production and margins. As a stockholder, you may just want to enjoy the gains and the market's acknowledgment of what this company has done and is doing. It's ok to be successful.
    Sep 9 06:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips Investor Update: Kashagan, Venezuela, Bone Spring, The Gulf And Drones [View article]
    Thanks Bahamas - $80 would be nice and is not a stretch.
    Sep 9 06:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Vision: A Solar Powered Desalination Plant With CAES Backup [View article]
    All desalination plants are built because there is a need for the product (drinkable water). If people don't have drinkable water, what sense does it make to delay building a desalination plant because there will be some cost savings down the road? All the people will be dead by then.
    Sep 9 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: GE may target Dresser-Rand, Dril-Quip in energy push [View news story]
    I don't know bb....Jack Welch was the one that almost destroyed GE with his foray into the financial world. Immelt, on the other hand, has been returning GE to its original industrial roots. Selling of NBC stake, buying companies like Dresser and Lufkin. GE is a much much stronger company today than when Jack Welch was CEO. I laugh every time Welch gets on CNBC and is hailed as some kind of management guru with his own "college". What a joke. Immelt inherited a mess from Welch. He has played a very good hand considering the cards he was dealt!
    Sep 9 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips Investor Update: Kashagan, Venezuela, Bone Spring, The Gulf And Drones [View article]
    Hi User: I think the first stage was a bit more than simply "deintegration" (i.e. the PSX spin-off): it was also focused exploitation (Eagle Ford, Bakken, Permian, & oil sands) and non-core asset sales.

    Also, I am not sure it makes sense to spin off international and LNG assets as you suggest. I am glad COP has not announced such a move. In Q2, the company posted significant international earnings:

    Asia Pac & Middle East (APME): $871 million
    Europe: $261 million

    and that was a low quarter for Europe due to lift timing and planned downtime for maintenance. That's over $1.1. billion in net income that you want them to spin off? Nooo. Now that COP is the biggest independent exploration and production company, I think it is very important they keep an international footprint, both to maintain current operations (and net income) as well as a platform for growth opportunities. After all, the Eagle Ford and Bakken are not inexhaustible. Where prudent, COP has sold stakes in big LNG projects to reduce risk, but why give up on Asia LNG when it fetches ~$14/MMBtu?

    All that said, there does seems to be a conscious effort by the powers that be to destabilize all Middle Eastern countries: Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, Syria...it's a dangerous world over there.
    Sep 9 04:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips Investor Update: Kashagan, Venezuela, Bone Spring, The Gulf And Drones [View article]
    Thanks guys!
    Sep 9 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport LNG signs deal with Asian firms for gas exports [View news story]
    As I reported earlier, COP has no equity stake in the Freeport LNG export terminal:

    http://bit.ly/1e9gijN

    That said, I do think it is very likely COP will sell natural gas feedstock into the plant:
    Sep 9 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are These 2 Companies In General Electric's Sights? [View article]
    Hi Bret, I agree with you and I hope you don't mind if I direct your readers to an article published yesterday on DRQ:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 9 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dril-Quip: Subsea Equipment Provider On Track To Grow Earnings By 40% [View article]
    I followed my own advice and scaled in...with only 1,249 page views on this article, buying the stock appears to be the only way to make any money on the time I spent on research and writing!

    Long DRQ.
    Sep 9 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Oil Sands Production Should Propel Suncor To $40 By Year-End [View article]
    Hi Ryan - that's a good point about holding versus trading. Certainly over the last few years you have probably done much better than the buy and hold investor. That said, I obviously think things are changing for SU. I think it would take a significant slowing of the global economy for WTI to sink back into the $80's. Besides, with significant production problems in Libya and Nigeria, and the very uncertainly geopolitical risks in the Middle East with Syria and Iraq's incessant unrest, I think they'll be a nice bid under both Brent and WTI for some time to come. In fact, if the world economy continues to improve, I could make a case for even higher oil prices. Long-term, I agree with Charlie Munger: I am absolutely certain oil prices are going to rise. The only thing that would dampen my outlook on oil prices would be if the US adopted natural gas transportation. And, as I have written, that's not really happening except in the long-haul trucking, bus, refuse and fleet sectors. While that is good progress, the US needs to get ordinary Americans refueling their everyday cars and trucks on natural gas. That would be a significant game changer imho.
    Sep 9 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dril-Quip: Subsea Equipment Provider On Track To Grow Earnings By 40% [View article]
    Sorry - forgot to answer your question on a GE takeover. I would never buy a stock based solely on takeover speculation. So if you buy DRQ, buy it because you like the company. That said, I do believe GE's next target will likely be DRQ or DRC. There has been too much chatter on the subject and both would be perfect bolt-on branded names for GE's oil and gas business.
    Sep 9 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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