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Michael Fitzsimmons

 
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  • Keystone-XL Pipeline: Delayed So Long It No Longer Matters? [View article]
    Thank you jjmc - we seem to agree. I would only add that politics in the US is now only about money too. As Bill Gross of Pimco said "We have the best government money can buy." Policy making in the US is all about money. That's it. No policies are passed for the benefit of the vast majority of Americans, it is just which lobbyist can pay our elected officials the most money. Perhaps I am a cynic, but on -XL, I think the question is: who can pay the politicians more: the railroad & Saudi interests (not to build it) or the pipeline company(s) and unions that want to build it? If that question is indeed the pertinent one, we certainly know who is winning as of today. The delay in -XL gave the railroads time to build up takeaway capacity and it now appears energy companies are reporting exit capacity to be a non-issue now, and for the foreseeable future. Chalk one up for Butter, BNSF, and the rest of the railroads...and the Saudis have to be smiling too because -XL would have done serious damage to their heavy exports to the US.
    Aug 6, 2013. 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron's Duvernay Acquisition Is Bullish For Enerplus [View article]
    Thanks for all the links TnT....may not get to all those ;)
    But I agree with you and Bill, RBN Energy LLC has some nice research!
    Aug 6, 2013. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone-XL Pipeline: Delayed So Long It No Longer Matters? [View article]
    But getting back to -XL, I don't think the approval is being held up on environmental issues since the re-route around the aquifer...and I doubt the environment ever was the issue. I mean Obama was for "clean coal", which we all know is an oxymoron if ever there was one. And Obama has not supported nat gas transportation while supporting EVs recharged from coal. So he has no environmental history whatsoever. The real reason is power: US railroad interest over Canadian pipeline interests. And the House of Saud over the House of Canada. Because that is what is happening: not building -XL means the railroads will thrive and the US will keep importing (more expensive...) Saudi crude as opposed to drastically increasing Canadian oil sands imports.
    Aug 6, 2013. 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone-XL Pipeline: Delayed So Long It No Longer Matters? [View article]
    Yes, it's ironic to me that the home state of George Bush is ground zero for global warming in the US, yet it seems most of the people (including many of my friends in Austin) are Republicans who think it's all some kind of conspiracy or something. I have fishing buddies in Austin who now can't fish most of the places they used to because there is simply no water. I have friends whose wells have gone dry. And it's all happening pretty much as the predictors of global warming laid out over a decade ago: the SW U.S. would be hit hard. And that has happened: TX, New Mexico, Colorado - it's awful. I drove over Independence Pass in CO in early July. There was *no* snow at all up there - over 12,000 feet in elevation and usually big snow driffs sometimes even into August. Nota. Mt Conejos, over 13,000 feet, which I have hiked many times - same thing, very little snow and sometimes none in July. The state is actually thinking about draining a major reservoir (and prime fishery) into another reservoir because it is so low they are losing water to evaporation. But the big problem in CO is the winters are getting cold enough to kill the beetle larvae deep inside the pine trees. I talked to a biologist this summer at Trapper's Lake. She said it takes about 30 days worth of -25F temperatures during the winter to kill larvae deep in the trees. Haven't had that in years. Combine that with the lack of moisture, and the pine trees cannot push the larvae out with sap either. It's a 1-2 punch. As a result, we've got a massive dead tree problem resulting in abundant wildfires. It's a damn shame. I fear it is going to get much worse before it gets better...meantime, the US - the first country to put a man on the moon and split the atom, apparently doesn't believe in man's ability to read thermometers and rain gauges. Unfortunately, the Rep. have made it a political issue into a scientific one and you can tell from some of the comments on here they are very successful in their efforts to sway opinion on that matter. I had to laugh when Rick Perry ran for President and a bunch of his constituents in Galveston asked him to do a study on why the city was getting racked year after year with storm damage and what they should do to protect their investments down there. Of course the study came back and said the cause was global warming, in which case the Gov's staff immediately flushed the study so it would not come up during the campaign. Can you imagine being the governor of the state of Texas during this day and age and not acknowledging man-made global warming? Funny thing is, I doubt the state would elect someone who did believe in MMGW! Ha!
    Aug 6, 2013. 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron's Duvernay Acquisition Is Bullish For Enerplus [View article]
    You welcome and thanks for the additional info and links. No doubt about it: EOG and COP are in the sweet spot of Eagle Ford and are cashing in on the play as the two biggest producers there. I remember you writing to me about the Canol, jeez, it must have been a year ago. I have noticed a couple articles mentioning it. Perhaps I should find the time to write something on it. The Duvernay kind of caught me by surprise, I mean I knew it was there but XOM then CVX diving in like they did made me take a closer look. Especially CVX - they are ROCE centric. The demand for condensate from the oil sands producers is really making it synergistic double-play for the "Loonies".
    Aug 6, 2013. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron's Duvernay Acquisition Is Bullish For Enerplus [View article]
    tewright2012: In this Sonde Resources presentation:

    http://bit.ly/17vUVAf

    page 3 says shows the company;s Duvernay assets as ~94,500 net acres, Ante Creek N., Bezanson, Sturgeon Lake, Windfall

    You may want to take a look at the Wood Mackenzie link I provided up above and see if you can find out if any of those acres fall in the wet gas sweet spot window they identified in that research paper. Looking at the map, I can't see any locations that match, but perhaps it needs more granularity.
    Aug 6, 2013. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone-XL Pipeline: Delayed So Long It No Longer Matters? [View article]
    A small electric car, with limited range, can make sense for many urban populations. And as a 2nd vehicle for many other people. This is why BMW recently announced their first all electric vehicle:

    http://bit.ly/16xNSK2
    Aug 6, 2013. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone-XL Pipeline: Delayed So Long It No Longer Matters? [View article]
    The over-whelming majority of climatologists the world over are in consensus on the matter. So our most governments (accepting of course the US). If your position is that higher levels of CO2 do not cause the atmosphere to warm (a commonly accepted scientific fact as far back as the 1800's), and that the oceans are falling (which your comment insinuates), then there is no sense in us even having a debate on the matter. I learned long ago there is no sense trying to change someone's perspective on the matter if common sense observations and the ability to read a thermometer and rain gauge cannot do it.
    Aug 6, 2013. 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone-XL Pipeline: Delayed So Long It No Longer Matters? [View article]
    Why are the glaciers in the Rocky Mountains, the Alps, and now the third biggest ice formation on Earth, the Tibetan Plateau disappearing and/or dramatically shrinking? Oh I know... "it's cyclical" the magical explanation for everything that is happening...as though cyclicality cannot happen around a rising temperature trendline.....I used to fly-fish in the Hill Country of Texas every spring....haven't gone in 5 years now...know why? There is no river there any more. The Colorado River upstream of Lake Buchanan just ain't what it used to be. Let alone all the highland lakes...which last I knew, were still near record lows. Lakes are so low and hot the fish are just dying. Such a shame. Such a great and fun tradition gone...perhaps forever. All I can do is cross my fingers and hope Texas gets some hurricane action to fill the lakes back up so that someday soon me and my buddies can go back up there and do what people have been doing in that neck of the woods for decades. Anecdotal? Of course...the problem is, I have hundreds of anecdotal stories like that. Many from fly-fishing in the high mtns of Colorado, which has also dramatically changed in the last decade. Even the Republican owners of the ski lodges up there have, finally, admitted global warming is real and here today and that we had better take action. I guess it has to hit some peoples' wallet before they will open their eyes to what is clearly happening all around them every day.
    Aug 6, 2013. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy Issues A Very Bullish 2nd Half Outlook [View article]
    Oh OK, hopefully you (and I) will look back in 6 months and see some significant appreciation in the stock. I think the odds are, for the first time in a couple years, now in our favour.
    Aug 6, 2013. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron's Duvernay Acquisition Is Bullish For Enerplus [View article]
    Well it certainly makes a lot sense to me, and the reason I queried you about it was because I have a feeling COP/PSX may be providing the condensate. COP is really pumping the Eagle Ford and PSX just opened up two new big nat gas pipelines (Sand Hills and Southern Hills) last quarter. I'll do some snooping around on this one....
    Aug 6, 2013. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy Issues A Very Bullish 2nd Half Outlook [View article]
    Agreed. That said, I believe current EPS estimates are low for the 2nd half of the year, especially considering the July production results (see below) released today. I'm hanging onto my shares.
    Aug 6, 2013. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron's Duvernay Acquisition Is Bullish For Enerplus [View article]
    Energex: you comment about condensate being railed back to Canada is very interesting...do you point me to a source on that? Thanks!
    Aug 6, 2013. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone-XL Pipeline: Delayed So Long It No Longer Matters? [View article]
    Hmm...not sure what data you are looking at, the last time I checked EIA data, they said natural gas was the fastest growing transportation fuel in the US and the coming growth is going to go exponential. See the EIA provided graph in my May article on the subject:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I also don't see how nat gas demand could be flat when there are so many refuse, buses, and long-haul trucking NGVs being sold and while more and more nat gas refueling stations are being built. Can you point me to the EIA data you are looking at? Also, if you take worldwide data into account, the rest of the world is adopting nat gas transportation much faster than is the US (>15 million NGVs worldwide).
    Aug 6, 2013. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron's Duvernay Acquisition Is Bullish For Enerplus [View article]
    Heh heh - tewright, I am not familiar with Sonde's acreage - do you know what part of the play there are in or near?
    Aug 6, 2013. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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