Seeking Alpha

Michael Fitzsimmons

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Michael Fitzsimmons' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 5 Natural Gas Transportation Stocks For 2013: July Update [View article]
    Yeah, but what I would like to see is Ford and GM pull in WPRT's technology to their plants so that their NGVs can be OEM built from the ground up. If that happened, there is no reason for the huge $8-10k cost premium on a truck like the F-150. It should be more in the range of $2k. I'd also like to see the auto manufactures bundle a home nat gas refueling appliance with the sale of an NGV, so the customer could finance both at once, and have assistance with installation and warranty issues, reducing overall costs and risks for the customer. Once a significant number of home refueling stations and NGVs are sold, it would be just a matter of time before more public refueling stations would follow. Personally, I cannot wait to afford and refuel my own NGV at home!
    Aug 2, 2013. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Shale Oil Names Leading Us Higher, Coal Disappoints Again [View article]
    Hey Matt, don't you think COP should be on your list considering their awesome performance in the Eagle Ford, their margin expansion, and their Q2 earnings beat?
    Aug 2, 2013. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Natural Gas Transportation Stocks For 2013: July Update [View article]
    Fuels Systems Solutions (FSYS) is one, and there are some other minor players. Of course CMI, GE, and CAT are players in engines, but I believe most of their products rely on WPRT for the nat gas technology.
    Aug 2, 2013. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Natural Gas Transportation Stocks For 2013: July Update [View article]
    Heh heh. Yeah, I was in WPRT early and sold too early. I'd like to get back into the stock, and am watching it closely.
    Aug 2, 2013. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Natural Gas Transportation Stocks For 2013: July Update [View article]
    I didn't miss the news - the earnings were released too late for this article which was submitted 2 days ago. I'll cover the earnings in next month's update.

    WPRT is much like CLNE: early movers in the natural gas transportation revolution. Both companies are challenged by quarterly earnings, but at some point, both are going to thrive in what is a multi-decade long worldwide trend: natural gas transportation. But like any emerging growth market, the question is when do you invest and when will earnings take off?
    Aug 2, 2013. 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Natural Gas Transportation Stocks For 2013: July Update [View article]
    Note that Westport added the Ford F-150 to its product portfolio:

    http://bit.ly/16oMWaZ
    Aug 2, 2013. 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Whiting Petroleum, Buy ConocoPhillips [View article]
    The stock is starting to move (finally). $60 is not out of the question. It will be interesting to look back in a year and see which stock has the bigger return: COP or WLL.
    Aug 2, 2013. 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon shares fall after big earnings miss [View news story]
    Sure am glad shareholders are paying XOM execs so much....alos, it really makes you wonder about the $20 billion they sunk into share buybacks in 2012: Exxon: Buyback Heavy, Dividend Light:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Exxon used to be a great performer. It's a shame long-term shareholders have such big cap gains tax exposure - otherwise they would probably shift into COP or CVX. Both pay significantly higher dividends and are performing much better.
    Aug 1, 2013. 01:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Whiting Petroleum, Buy ConocoPhillips [View article]
    COP's Q2 earnings is a beat:

    http://bit.ly/18TZXgz

    Raises full-year 2013 production guidance. Stock currently up 2%.
    Whiting having a good day too, currently up 1.5%
    Aug 1, 2013. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips raises production forecast; more on Q2 results [View news story]
    Good Action! COP is executing flawlessly on its multi-year strategic plan. The company is cashing in on its Eagle Ford acreage:

    http://bit.ly/17VFHq6
    Aug 1, 2013. 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Heavy Crude Prices Are Rising: Suncor Rakes In The Dough [View article]
    Bill, please see my earlier article on SU:

    http://bit.ly/13y3sRB

    and please note the section "Saved By The Refineries". You have the opinion that I don't understand the integrated model, yet I have written about it and have covered it in the past with Exxon, Chevron, etc. etc. It is a fundamental and basic fact of all integrated oil companies and not a big "revelation" to me. So I hope we can move on from this issue, as my earlier words are a matter of record, and specifically so on SU.

    What we disagree on is the effect of rising WCS: I think it is good for SU and you don't seem to agree, and that's OK. But let's keep it to that issue and not expand it as a reason to "teach" me about what an integrated model is. I assure you: I "understand".

    With respect to Q2 earnings, production was reduced by approximately 36,000 bbls/d due to third-party outages: electric power generation and pipeline closures for floods. Note the company said:

    "The impacts of these events were offset by an increase in price realizations in Oil Sands due to narrowing price differentials on western Canadian crude oil and an increase in refined product margins."

    So they obviously think higher WCS is "good", and that is what this article was about. Indeed, WCS @ Hardesty was $75.05 vs $70.60 in the year ago period, and this again is what this article alluded to.

    Bottom line here: the earnings were down YOY because production was down 42,000 bpd YOY due to outages and Upgrader 1 maintenance, not because WCS rose. WCS rising is a good thing for SU, and next quarter I imagine you will see this.

    In the long run, SU obviously has a huge resource base. At some point SU could have significantly more production capacity than refining capacity, and they will do this once there is significant takeaway capacity and realized prices for WCS offer a good return on the raw commodity. At that point, perhaps some will see that WCS rising is clearly good for the company.
    Aug 1, 2013. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips 66's Q2 A Miss, But Stock Is Worth Considering [View article]
    You're welcome Braeburn and thanks for reading.
    Jul 31, 2013. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips 66's Q2 A Miss, But Stock Is Worth Considering [View article]
    I'll take a stab at the valuation. For the first 6 months of 2013, PSX has earned $3.76. If we assume the downtime suffered this quarter doesn't happen again, and everything else is equal, they would earn $1.82 in Q3 (see my earlier comment that the downtown came to ~$0.29/share which I added to this quarters $1.53) and let's say they earn $1.90 in Q4 due to growth in chemicals capacity. So we have:

    EPS (2013) = first 6 months + Q3 + Q4
    = $3.76 (announced already) + $1.82 +$1.90
    = $7.48

    With a P/E =8, that gets us to $60. However, share buybacks under the $2 billion plan out another 11.5 million shares out of circulation (they have $700 million left in that plan) and then they announced another $1 billion authorized today, or say another 16.5 million shares @~60/share. They said they would do all the previous $2 billion plan buyback this year, and start the $1 billion plan this year. So, let's just say they'll take out 16 million shares by year end. The reduced shares will save the company ~$20 million in dividend payouts over the next 12 months.

    So, basically, the stock is being valued to at 8 times earnings and the assumption seems for no growth in the company's businesses (earnings) over the next 6 months. But we know they are focused on growing their very profitable chemicals business, and we know they plan to drop-down assets to PSXP and to grow midstream. Plus we have the first full quarter of Sand Hills and Souther Hills pipelines. It would appear there is little downside and much room for upside. If they get a break on WTI and/or WCS, it will be off to the races. If the economy keeps putting along, and there are no big market shocks, I wouldn't be surprised to see PSX back at $70 before year end. I know they'll be trying really hard to make up for the Q2 "lost opportunity" as management put it.
    Jul 31, 2013. 03:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Phillips 66's Q2 results [View news story]
    Yeah, I'll take a "slip" like this anyday :)
    Jul 31, 2013. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips 66's Q2 A Miss, But Stock Is Worth Considering [View article]
    Yes, I listened to the conference call and you could tell the CEO was pretty upset power outages in both Q1 and Q2. The "lost opportunity" cost between Sweeny and Port A was quoted to be $175 million, so with 611 million shares outstanding, you're right, that's about $0.29/share.
    Jul 31, 2013. 01:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
9,064 Comments
11,426 Likes