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Michael Fitzsimmons

 
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  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    Thanks Alvin...I hope you are right about the next 5 years. I obviously have my doubts that much will change unless some of the advice offered in this article is adopted.
    Aug 12, 2013. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    Alexander - yes, I understand I am looking at past performance. But the past is often indicative of the future - is it not? I believe you meant CVX (Chevron), but do I think it will outperform CVX going forward? Yes, I do. I think Chevron is the best integrated international oil company in the world. Take a look at the slide offered in the article on the important earnings/boe and ROCE metrics. I mean wow, who is even close to this? Note that CVX has been #1 in profit/barrel for 14 consecutive quarters - 3.5 years. We'll have to wait for a few years to see if nat gas "takes off", from what I have read, it's going to take 4-5 years to build the LNG plants. Is it possible XOM could still be under $100 5 years from now?
    Aug 12, 2013. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    @neophyte - Well said. You make the case as good (or better) than I. Thanks for your contribution.
    Aug 12, 2013. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    Thanks aces - yes, I think CVX is the best of the international integrated oil companies.
    Aug 12, 2013. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Conoco's Asset Sale To Exxon Highlights Value Of Its Oil Sands Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks Bill: This quote was interesting:

    "...He said the NWT government’s optimism is further strengthened by a changed “mindset” among northern aboriginal leaders. They are “tired of seeing unemployment rates of 30 percent to 40 percent in their communities” and are open to negotiating equity stakes in major projects along the lines of a deal they have in place for a possible one-third ownership position in the Mackenzie Gas Project pipeline, Ramsay said."

    The last time I read an article about pipelines in the Canadian northwest, I think it was in the WSJ or The Economist, it said the native populations were against the pipelines and had the ability to prevent them from being built since their lands were on the most desirable (i.e. economic) routes. So a change in their perspective would be huge.
    Aug 12, 2013. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone-XL Pipeline: Delayed So Long It No Longer Matters? [View article]
    So, you seem to agree with me that water vapor is the #1 leading greenhouse gas, but you still disagree about CO2 being #2?

    Climate models are very very complex - among the hardest modeling problems that exist. There are serious problems with every one I have looked at - whether they predict MMGW or not. I put no faith in them whatsoever.

    What I do have faith in is man's ability to read thermometers, rain gauges, sea level, and man's ability to analyze time-dated photographs of vanishing and quickly receding glaciers. I also believe in man's ability to put 2-and-2 together.

    I also believe in man's ability to complicate the heck out of a rather simple concept in order to make the data comply to a pre-ordained outcome based on political considerations instead of truth.
    Aug 12, 2013. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone-XL Pipeline: Delayed So Long It No Longer Matters? [View article]
    No worries bandit...I thought that estimate was a little high - at $30-40,000 an acre, I was ready to call him up and see if he needed some help harvesting :) Either way, it is an interesting way to use undeveloped land. If I remember right, I think he even found an organization to give him the seedlings for free.
    Aug 12, 2013. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    geologist: Thank you for the comment and I appreciate your ability to see both sides of the issue. I should have been a bit clearer in the article - I am not advocating that XOM spin off its entire refining operations as did COP. But based on a comparison with CVX's cash margin/boe, there are obviously pieces of XOM's business which are not performing as market leaders. These I would like to see XOM divest in order to slim-down the company, allow it to focus on what it is doing best, and (hopefully) enable the company to raise its dividend a full 1% to within the neighborhood of 3.75% (or so). I would also like to see the company divest some of its 25 billion barrels of reserves and pay special dividends to shareholders who have been stuck with a non-performing asset for the last 5 years. Both moves, I believe, would generate a lot of interest in the market and raise XOM's P/E as well. They have a wealth of excellent assets...its time management uses them for the benefit of shareholders.
    Aug 12, 2013. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    Thanks Parker and I share your enthusiasm for COP.
    Aug 12, 2013. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    sheetL sounds like you are describing a company like Phillips 66 (PSX), which in addition to substantial refinery assets also has 50/50 ownership in CPChem - arguably the best chemical company around (the other 50% is owned by Chevron). In addition, as the recent MLP offering for Phillips 66 Partners (PSXP) shows, PSX has substantial midstream assets and a good strategy to drop-down these assets to the MLP, which should lead to increased tax-advantaged distributions for the company.
    Aug 12, 2013. 09:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    Buffalo Bell: if you have held XOM for a long time, please, please check your capital gains exposure before you sell. I would hate for you to face an unexpected surprise at tax time!

    Alternatives that will likely outperform XOM are Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP). Both of these stocks have substantially higher yields than XOM and both have better cash margin/boe metrics.
    Aug 12, 2013. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone-XL Pipeline: Delayed So Long It No Longer Matters? [View article]
    Sorry Robert, I am not buying the explanation. Most of the data I have read on atmospheric warming puts CO2 second in line, after water vapor, in terms of the biggest impact. If you then look at the exponential growth in CO2 emissions in the last 100 years, it is not hard at all to understand why the Earth is warming and the North Pole melting. But of course we disagree on this to - you think an ice age is coming. So, it's OK to disagree, and I know we won't persuade each other to change our views. I think it is best we just check back every 5 years or so and ask ourselves the simple question: are we closer to an ice age, or not, than we were 5 years earlier. I think over time, we won't even need to go hunt down data or articles to answer the question, just step outside and travel a bit and simply be open to common sense observations of our surroundings.
    Aug 12, 2013. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    It's true - XOM does outperform in down markets. Now if we could only get it to move in UP markets...
    Aug 12, 2013. 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    cheese: If you're looking for a large international integrated oil company, I'd go with Chevron, for the reasons stated in the article. COP is also on the rise - it is just an E&P company now. For shale, EOG and CLR are top performers. But as Chubby says, much has to do with the risk you are comfortable with. Also, XOM does seem to outperform in down markets.
    Aug 12, 2013. 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    Hopefully much later rather than sooner...
    Aug 12, 2013. 07:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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