Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Michael Fitzsimmons  

View Michael Fitzsimmons' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    Hi Veritas - I hope it doesn't come to fruition either as I like my COP shares. But I think you might agree XOM taking over COP is more likely than the latest rumor (again) that XOM will take over BP.

    As for regulatory hurdles, I really don't see the big difference in Washington that most seem to see. If anything, Washington might be more corporate friendly now that at any time in history. As Senator Warren pointed out, Supreme Court rulings are recently 70% in favor of corporates over the public, and of course the Citizens United verdict pretty much guarantees corporate control of Congress and energy companies are obviously big players when it comes to campaign donations. But when it comes specifically to anti-trust issues in the US, we must remember that both XOM and COP are big international companies. Where they compete in the US (primarily the GoM, Bakken, and Permian) there are many other competitors in those regions as well: CVX, BP, Shell etc. etc. So< i really don't think the regulatory hurdle would be that big. However, the #1 (XOM) US natural gas producers swallowing the #7 US natural gas producer (COP) as reported here:

    http://bit.ly/16CF7f5

    would be a huge anti-trust issue, and thus my opinion that any combination of XOM & COP would be contingent on a big natural gas divestiture.
    Sep 23, 2013. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    Hi Chic - I'm happy with my COP too :)
    Sep 23, 2013. 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    If the price was right, yes I do. But I don't think it is likely to happen because I don't see anyone making a serious bid for BP.
    Sep 23, 2013. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    I agree Specialist. Funny how these XOM takeover of BP rumors so often seem to come from the UK....it's as though if they repeat it enough they thing it will happen. XOM would be nutz to buy BP, which is one reason I wrote this article.
    Sep 23, 2013. 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    Hi Mike: yes, I thought 2012 was the year XOM or CVX may have made a run at WLL or CLR or EOG. Money was (and still is) fairly easy to obtain and the Bakken companies were struggling with the WTI discount and valuations were quite a bit lower than today. EOG has been out-performing so much so that its mkt cap is now much more than HES and about half that of COP. That said, EOG's valuation is very high and COP dwarfs it in terms of total reserves and resource base.
    Sep 23, 2013. 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    Hi Eric: Not sure where you got the 250k Eagle Ford number from, COP's slide have been showing ~130,000 boe/day by 2017 for quite some time. Check out slide 16 of the presentation I linked too. While COP could exploit EF faster, the company is going to take its time and maximize the resource. It's a jewel of an asset.
    Sep 23, 2013. 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    As owners of both COP and XOM, I would much rather see XOM raise the dividend too (and *decrease* share buybacks). But I doubt regulators would stand in the way of a XOM/COP deal. Stand Oil was a long time ago - things have changed dramatically since those times.
    Sep 23, 2013. 05:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    Exactly Sally....plus Chevron scooped up Unocal...and BP was allowed to buy both Atlantic Richfield and Amoco.

    Standard Oil was a long time ago..things have changed dramatically. Do you think the US gov would stand in the way of an American oil company big enough to compete with the Chinese state run oil companies? I doubt it.
    Sep 23, 2013. 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    My thoughts are I should have held my HES shares longer! Along with Marathon, I had bought HES with the thought of a restructuring. I held HES for quite some time, got tired of it doing nothing, and sold it in February right before it popped like 10 points! Ugh...the pain. I doubt either XOM or CVX wants additional US refining capacity, so any deal with HES would likely be a post restructuring play. HES, as a pure E&P play, would certainly be easier to swallow than COP...
    Sep 23, 2013. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    007: I concur. Just saying that COP makes much more sense as an acquisition for XOM than does BP. I think all COP shareholders would like COP to remain independent...odds are it will. Even COP would be quite a big fish for XOM to catch.
    Sep 23, 2013. 05:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    Good point Sally - the US courts and regulators are very friendly to corporations these days.
    Sep 23, 2013. 05:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    Albert A. - I hope XOM doesn't buy COP, but you must admit, it makes a whole lot more sense than the BP rumor that keeps popping up every so often.
    Sep 23, 2013. 04:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Won't Buy BP; ConocoPhillips Makes Much More Sense [View article]
    David: I also own COP and I agree with you - I would much rather the company stay independent. As I said in the article, COP will likely be higher two years from now than a buyout by XOM today, plus the nice dividend. As for the anti-trust issue, other than substantially increasing its US natural gas position - I don't see a problem. COP no longer has midstream, refining, or gas stations. So, I think any deal would be contingent on COP/XOM having to sell down some natural gas production, but other than that, I think US regulators would pass it for two reasons:

    1) both companies get a substantial portion of their revenue from international markets
    2) size is a factor when competing against state run oil companies (China, Brazil, etc.
    Sep 23, 2013. 04:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Oil Sands Production Should Propel Suncor To $40 By Year-End [View article]
    AO: My prediction was it would hit $40 by the end of the year, and it was based on a big increase in production. Although you are correct WCS has been under pressure, gasoline prices are still quite strong and SU's integrated model should be performing well. Time will tell.
    Sep 23, 2013. 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Permian Basin Royalty Trust Looks Enticing With 9% Yield And Increased Production [View article]
    Well you beat me to the punch with this article as I had planned to write essentially the same while having my morning Sunday coffee. With respect to reserves, as I pointed out in my earlier article on PBT:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The trust has seen a 13% net increase in proven oil reserves from 2009-2013. Not bad for a "depleting trust." Plus, the operator is COP, and Conoco knows what they are doing. The increase in cap-ex spending has been worth it in two ways: higher production into higher prices, and the expectation for another jump in proven reserves when it comes time to report the yearly figure.
    Sep 22, 2013. 10:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
9,770 Comments
12,272 Likes