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Michael Fitzsimmons  

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  • Foster Wheeler Will Prosper Off New EU Nat Gas Transportation Strategy [View article]
    Geaux Tigers!
    Aug 17, 2013. 08:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buffet And Pickens Are Buying Suncor Energy [View article]
    That's a good point Scott. The oil market is certainly tough to predict. But just to take the opposite side of your argument, one could say that 2009 was an anomaly (though one we are more likely to see again today than in the past) which has as much to do with an overall financial system breakdown than simply a speculative oil price crash. Also, prior to August 2009, Suncor did not own PetroCanada. The lack of these refining assets left SU extremely vulnerable to the price of the raw commodity. This is no longer the case - SU has an integrated model, and we saw how well refining performed when WCS prices dropped over the last year or so due to exit capacity constraints. Lastly, we continue to see off-shore drilling costs escalate while the high depletion rates of shale wells put a floor under their costs. SU's oil sands costs are for the most part "fixed" and there are no exploration risks - the resource is there, it's simply a matter of exploiting it. So the future for SU looks quite bright to me, especially considering production will have a nice bump up in the 2nd half and the company has gone from a large cap-ex spender to a more pragmatic shareholder return focused company. Time will tell, but I think SU is still under-valued here, even after the recent "Buffet Bounce".
    Aug 17, 2013. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buffet And Pickens Are Buying Suncor Energy [View article]
    Thanks Bill - I am familiar with all the names except MEG, which I am about to look into right. I appreciate your contribution - have a great weekend!
    Aug 16, 2013. 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buffet And Pickens Are Buying Suncor Energy [View article]
    Rock: You've probably seen it, but if you haven't, there is a new kid on the block (Seeking Alpha handle "Polar Prosepecting") and his first article is called "Clash Of The Canadian Titans: Suncor, Imperial, And Cenovus". It's excellent and along the lines of your valuation comment:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I highly recommend this article to anyone owning an oil sands stock.
    Aug 16, 2013. 03:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Digital Corp: I Spy An Opportunity [View article]
    Yes - it all comes down to the typical trade offs common to all electronic components and systems: capacity, cost, performance, power consumption, reliability, maintainability, and scalability. As a result, most research (and I agree with it in the big picture), is that the majority of big data storage requirements will be satisfied by HDDs at least out to 2020, and probably much longer than that.
    Aug 16, 2013. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buffet And Pickens Are Buying Suncor Energy [View article]
    Yes, technically you are correct Stephen. That said, it's been generally accepted in the media to report BRK transactions as those of Buffet himself. Not saying I agree with that, it's just the way it is. However, considering the size of the initial purchase (over half a billion $), I'd be surprised if Buffet wasn't directly involved in the decision to take such a substantial stake in SU.
    Aug 16, 2013. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buffet And Pickens Are Buying Suncor Energy [View article]
    Buffet usually establishes a big position, and I would consider $524,021,000 a big initial position, when he feels a company is under-valued compared to its near and long-term prospects. From that standpoint, his timing was very good.as he got in around $29.49. The stock is now trading at $34.28, so he's already got an ~$85 million gain. But I think he's in SU for the long-term as the synergy with BNSF was too good to pass up.
    Aug 16, 2013. 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buffet And Pickens Are Buying Suncor Energy [View article]
    Yup, and XOM just spent ~$720 million to buy COP's Clyden asset:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    ~875,000 acres of top-tier oil sands.
    Aug 16, 2013. 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clash Of The Canadian Titans: Suncor, Imperial, And Cenovus [View article]
    Excellent article Polar. I really enjoyed the company comparison metrics you presented and your ability to cut to the chase on the most important investment factors with respect to these companies. I follow SU fairly close, so it was very interesting to see the company compared to its peers. I am going to "follow" you in hopes of seeing more articles in the near future. Good work!
    Aug 16, 2013. 02:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    I like to see critics start with the personal attacks - it usually means they have lost the real debate.
    Aug 16, 2013. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobile LNG Delivery Fueling Chart Industries' Growth In China [View article]
    Thanks James - I should have pointed that out. The contract is for providing ~100,000 gallons of LNG/day in Weld County, Colorado. The LNG will be used for Noble's DJ Basin activities. Here's the press release:

    http://bit.ly/1dd9Ncu
    Aug 16, 2013. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Time To Break It Up And Slim It Down [View article]
    If Exxon Mobil isn't bogged down in Iraq, then why have they threatened to leave and go to Kurdistan? If XOM is doing so well in Iraq, then why are they looking to cut their stake? You obviously don't agree with what I am saying, but it's hard for me to understand why you don't believe what the company itself is saying and doing.

    With respect to the on-going ROCE debate, if you look at the CVX slide in the article, it refers you to the Appendix of their presentation to see what was "adjusted", and you can see that the main adjustment was for asset dispositions and impairments, and for most quarters, no adjustment was needed. You know, it's OK to disagree. At this point, it's pretty clear that no matter how many msg's we exchange on the subject, I am not going to change your mind on the matter any more than you are going to change mine. So why don't we just sit back for 6-12 months, and then we can let the stock market show us which stock will perform better.
    Aug 16, 2013. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buffet And Pickens Are Buying Suncor Energy [View article]
    Make that billions of barrels:

    6.9 Billion Barrels Proved and Probable Reserves
    23.5 Billion Contingent Resources
    Aug 16, 2013. 08:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Foster Wheeler Will Prosper Off New EU Nat Gas Transportation Strategy [View article]
    Thanks jpm - I didn't know about the contact. I see that FWLT has been a disappointing stock. It hasn't really been capitalizing on the natural gas revolution as I predicted. I think Chart Industries (GTLS) is a better play. It is richly priced right now, but man do they have a good business going in China with their mobile LNG delivery trucks.
    Aug 16, 2013. 07:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buffet And Pickens Are Buying Suncor Energy [View article]
    Good point rjj - after all, it was the PetroCanada refining assets that really saved SU during the mid-continent exit capacity constriction and subsequent drop in the price of WCS. The integrated capability SU has with refining is probably one reason management was confident enough to significantly boost the dividend and increase share buyback by another $2 billion. They probably believe they can weather any storm now.
    Aug 15, 2013. 08:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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