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Michael Fitzsimmons

 
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  • Chevron: The Best Integrated Oil Company In The World [View article]
    Hi Papa - I just read your article and enjoyed it as well. I really liked your reserve depletion analysis. However, I was a bit confused by your conclusion - you like XOM because of the stock buybacks? I'll rather a dividend and stock price appreciation...but I guess that is what makes markets. That said, I own them both.
    Feb 18 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Shale Oil Production Affect Oil Stocks? [View article]
    Isn't asking "Will Shale Oil Affect Oil Stocks?" kinda like asking if weather is going to affect farmers?
    Feb 18 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips (COP) will gradually restart China's biggest offshore oilfield, Penglai 19-3, after receiving approval for a development plan and an analysis of its environmental effect. The 168K bpd field, in which ConocoPhillips owns 49% and CNOOC 51%, has been shut since September 2011 following an oil spill. [View news story]
    Well guys, 49% of 168k barrels/day is 82,320 barrels. That's not much less than COP's Q4 Eagle Ford production - and it's sold at Brent prices. Penglai was big bucks for COP before the spill, and it is going to be big bucks for COP after the spill. You don't sell 82,320 barrels/day of Brent when you are the operator. At least imho.
    Feb 18 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Wars To Feed The Gold Bull [View article]
    Hi Steve35 - why beryllium and how do you invest in it?
    Feb 18 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips (COP) will gradually restart China's biggest offshore oilfield, Penglai 19-3, after receiving approval for a development plan and an analysis of its environmental effect. The 168K bpd field, in which ConocoPhillips owns 49% and CNOOC 51%, has been shut since September 2011 following an oil spill. [View news story]
    Good Action!! Get 'er done boys!
    Feb 17 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Statoil Undervalued? [View article]
    Thank you 8549521 - it certainly seems as though both the government and STO understand the reasons to change the current dividend policy, so it seems like that would be something relatively easy to pass through. Since you seem knowledgeable about the issue, perhaps you could tell us when the next general election is in Norway? Thanks!
    Feb 17 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
    Well, made in volume, I am not sure a CNG Prius would cost much more than a gasoline Prius. But I would agree the limited fuel availability is a problem, which is why I suggested bundling the home refueling appliance with the car. We need to start somewhere getting on to CNG. China and the EU have both outlined their nat gas transportation strategy in policy papers which they are now working on. What is the U.S. doing other than CLNE? Not much. Both China and the EU are going to build a nat gas refueling infrastructure at strategic locations on their main highways, why isn't the U.S. doing this on the interstate hwy system? Heck, for all the money Obama and Chu wasted on "battery research", Solyndra, the oxymoronic "clean coal", and the EV manufacturers - we'd have it now! No new technology, no new research, just *build it*.
    Feb 15 07:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio - Q4 2012 Update [View article]
    I still think Buffet should buy Phillips 66:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I mean candies and ketchup and DQ blizzards, I mean Warren, step it up and get into companies that power the economy...at least you kept your COP and PSX stakes steady. COP is gonna make you some serious money in 2014.
    Feb 15 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Producers: Will Q4 Earnings Finally Juice Their Stock Prices? [View article]
    I'm jealous of the both of you...I have poured over their quarterly earnings for a couple years now and always think I can get in at a better price...and it (mostly) just goes up on me.
    Feb 15 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
    That's what I can't understand Tom - Toyota came out with this CNG/electric hybrid way back in 2008:

    http://bit.ly/GWXP3E

    and everyone just yawned. I was like, man that's ***IT***!! That is the car architecture the U.S. needs: basically a Prius that runs on natural gas instead of gasoline.

    I am still waiting for everyone else to get excited about it. Mainly the numbskulls in Washington that, from what I understand, persuaded Toyota NOT to introduce the car in the U.S. Can you imagine the game-changer it would be if Toyota shipped that hybrid Camry bundled with a nat gas home refueling appliance made by GE? Lord have mercy, we could clean up the air, reduce foreign oil imports, and reduce the fuel costs of middle class Americans. Now that would be some "GOOD ACTION".
    Feb 15 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
    Alex - nice work : thanks for the info and analysis.
    Feb 15 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
    Thank you Tom. While writing this article, I came across of couple of yours and was impressed with them and your large number of followers. Good point about the smoothness of hybrids!
    Feb 15 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Producers: Will Q4 Earnings Finally Juice Their Stock Prices? [View article]
    Perhaps that is where I inherited my love of fly-fishing. Golf too.
    Feb 15 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
    Sorry, that was my bad Alex, but no I don't have any data on that. I suppose the payback period would depend largely on the daily miles driven. Also, emissions are a big factor - I increasingly read about school and metro passengers complaining about breathing fumes of gasoline or diesel based buses, in addition to the GW issues. Note NFI also make diesel buses too, but most of the big contracts I have seen lately are for the nat gas versions. I would think nat gas is at least 1/3 cheaper than diesel of gasoline, perhaps even less depending on the location. The Xcelsior bus has a 100 gal gas tank, so every fill-up would save roughly $100 if the nat gas discount was $1/GGE (for example). I don't have the mpg spec, but let's say it's 7.5 mpg, so a fillup would be 750 miles and let's assume that is one day's operation and the bus is refueling once a day. So that's $3k/month or $36k/year. If the bus has a 10 year lifespan, that's $360,000 in fuel savings.
    Feb 15 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
    Alex: this is hard to read, but I cut-n-pasted this from a Reuters report on NFI

    Profitability
    12 Mo Jan 10 ** 12 Mo Jan 11 ** 12 Mo Jan 12 ** 3 Year Average
    Gross Margin (%) 13.34 12.05 12.41 12.60
    Operating Margin (%) 7.05 6.56 7.95 7.19
    Net Profit Margin (%) (2.76) 0.24 2.07 (0.15)
    Feb 14 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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