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Michael Fitzsimmons

 
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  • ConocoPhillips Offers An Industry Leading Dividend, Backed By Earnings [View article]
    The dividend is certainly one reason to buy COP. Another reason is their production growth in the shale play with the best economics in the U.S.: the Eagle Ford shale in TX. Go to COP's website and check out their recent presentation at the Jeffries conference. Slide 13 shows EF production growing to over 110,000 boe/day in 2013. that is some serious profit considering its $37/barrel break even price. The company expects a 50% return on EF investments. Awesome. I think COP's earnings will surprise the street on the upside in 2013.
    Dec 4 01:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Crude: Buffett's Railroad Beats ONEOK's Pipeline [View article]
    Thanks jbbson. The refinery being built on the Fort Berthold reservation will be initially be 13,000 barrels/day with an eventual planned capacity of 20,000 barrels/day. Considering oil production in North Dakota is over 700,000 boe/day, I don't think it is much of a game changer. By the time construction is completed (some 18 months from now), incremental Bakken production alone will swamp the 20,000 b/d capacity.
    Dec 4 12:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Crude: Buffett's Railroad Beats ONEOK's Pipeline [View article]
    @Larry - I totally agree. And that is why the Keystone XL pipeline, when approved (and I think it will be) will benefit oil sands producer Suncor more so than Bakken producers. The heavy investments refiners made on the Gulf coast to support heavy crude from Venezuela and Canadian oil sands profit more if they can get their hands on lower cost heavy and I expect future pipelines to focus on the heavy. I see rail dominating Bakken sweet transport for quite some time.
    Dec 4 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Significant Impact Of U.S. Oil Production [View article]
    Nice article Frank. I clicked on your funds' top-10 holdings but I didn't see any stocks that would benefit from increased oil production from the Bakken and/or Eagle Ford shales. I was surprised considering the tone of this article. Why the omission?
    Dec 4 08:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Crude: Buffett's Railroad Beats ONEOK's Pipeline [View article]
    @Alex: Yup, I agree. As long as rail capacity exceeds production in the Bakken, it will be difficult for the pipeliner to get the long-term producer commitments it needs in order to go forward with the project. I see rail dominating Bakken crude transport for quite some time to come (thus the article).
    Dec 3 10:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Occidental Petroleum Oversold? [View article]
    You're welcome - and thank you for reading. I am glad you found the article useful.
    Dec 3 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Occidental Petroleum Oversold? [View article]
    @Casey: I am still waiting for sub $70...
    Dec 3 09:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Crude: Buffett's Railroad Beats ONEOK's Pipeline [View article]
    @transparent_Tom: Thanks, I found the article you referred to:

    http://bit.ly/RxGWIg

    Very interesting but I would rather not comment on that issue here....
    Dec 3 08:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Crude: Buffett's Railroad Beats ONEOK's Pipeline [View article]
    @Adam, you may be correct about this pipeline being resurrected in a year or so. That said, I have read that railcar margins for Bakken crude are almost double that of coal, and coal is shrinking. Point being, after all the investment BNSF, other rail companies, and even producer STO and refiner PSX have made in rail, I think they'll fight to make it work for sometime into the future. As long as rail capacity stays ahead of Bakken production (as it today), the rails are going to be the primary mover of Bakken crude for quite sometime to come. I do agree with you, as the spread narrows with Cushing outflow capacity, the chances of the pipeline go up as it is cheaper by the barrel than is rail.
    Dec 3 08:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Whiting Petroleum Worth $15 Billion? [View article]
    Thank you Stan. As we saw from the announcement from CLR today:

    http://bloom.bg/Vh8Yn6

    boosting Bakken estimates by 57% (!) after hitting a deeper 3-Forks zone, things can change fast. This news should affect WLL's valuation as well. I guess it is good the company held out for their price. Maybe WLL knew this news was coming...
    Dec 3 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Crude: Buffett's Railroad Beats ONEOK's Pipeline [View article]
    DRich - I can't corroborate the 8 day pipeline transit time (I assume you meant Bakken to Cushing). Regardless, the rail capacity is here today while the pipeline takes long-term producer commitments before being built and then wouldn't be online until 2015. Meantime, the rails are more flexible in terms of delivery destination while the pipeline just goes to Cushing and then you've got to move it from there (already brimming with oil there). The producers also claim that the refiners are getting quite aggressive in locking up deliveries via rail (PSX has its own railcars). Anyhow, here's an article on the issue and a quote from the article:

    http://bit.ly/RxE7XD

    “Rail is the fastest way to provide increased export capacity out of the Bakken, creating a near-term solution to transportation bottlenecks and the resulting crude oil pricing differentials,” said Stephen J. Wuori, President, Liquids Pipelines, Enbridge Inc.
    Dec 3 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Crude: Buffett's Railroad Beats ONEOK's Pipeline [View article]
    Thank you Ole. I think you are exactly correct - BNSF saw a great opportunity, invested, and executed very quickly. As for the pipelines, I think the lack of an agreement between the producers and ONEOK had two major factors:
    1) ONEOK wanted long-term commitments
    2) Cushing already is brimming with product
    3) Cushing still needs more pipeline capacity to the Gulf
    Since rail capacity is currently above production levels, the producers said hey, we'll stick with rail. But Long-term you've gotta believe some significant pipeline capacity for oil will have to be built from Bakken-to-Cushing. Once the Seaway pipeline (Cushing->Gulf) is increased to 400,000 boe/day (early 2013), and Cushing is drawn down, perhaps Bakken producers will be more willing to send some of their crude there. But for now, the rails have won the battle.
    Dec 3 07:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Whiting Petroleum Worth $15 Billion? [View article]
    yeah, the stock hasn't been performing well at all. too much takeover hype and not enough net income. plus, the management seems to spend all their time going to investor conferences - three more just this week. they sure don't seem to be worrying about expenses...
    Dec 3 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Whiting Petroleum Worth $15 Billion? [View article]
    @freeman - While $1.6 billion may seem like alot of debt, WLL's debt to capital ratio is around 32%, which is not bad. When you consider how cheap debt is today (in comparison to the not too distant past), and the margins achievable in the Bakken, I believe it makes some sense to carry that level of debt.
    Dec 3 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Whiting Petroleum Worth $15 Billion? [View article]
    Stan - thank you for clarifying SEC pricing as well as for your above response to Augustus' comment. both were very informative. I'd be very interested to know your thoughts on my valuation number for WLL vis-a-vis STO's purchase of BEXP. See my response to chazsf above for some particulars on the BEXP metrics at the time of the buyout.
    Dec 2 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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