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Michael Fitzsimmons  

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  • Inter Pipeline Delivers A 44% Total Return In 2014; Look For 25-30% In 2015 On Back Of Transport Mega Projects And Contango In Bulk Storage [View article]
    Hi scrouge - thanks for pointing that out to me. I will contact SA editors about that right now. Good eye!
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inter Pipeline Delivers A 44% Total Return In 2014; Look For 25-30% In 2015 On Back Of Transport Mega Projects And Contango In Bulk Storage [View article]
    Hi Patrick - you bring up an interesting point because there could be some pressure put on IPL to modify existing contracts. However, considering the size and volumes IPL is moving, who else could do it? Answer: no one. And we are dealing with big companies here (COP, CVE, XOM, etc.), so I feel pretty good that the EBITDA estimates we are seeing will happen, and that distributions will continue to show impressive growth. Time will tell. Also realize that existing oil sands projects that are in production are going to continue to produce, and add marginal barrels as they can be done cheaply and efficiently. It makes no sense to reduce production once the cap-ex to build the project has been spent. Where low prices does hurt is the production growth trajectory from here, and how long the pause button will pressed.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inter Pipeline Delivers A 44% Total Return In 2014; Look For 25-30% In 2015 On Back Of Transport Mega Projects And Contango In Bulk Storage [View article]
    Hi shotgunn99 - yes, the Loonie has weakened substantially against the dollar (what hasn't?) and I am sure the hurt put on the Canadian economy by low oil (and gas...) prices hasn't helped. And of course it's important to recognize that US investors owning IPPLF get their dividends translated into US$.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inter Pipeline Delivers A 44% Total Return In 2014; Look For 25-30% In 2015 On Back Of Transport Mega Projects And Contango In Bulk Storage [View article]
    Thanks Matthew!
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inter Pipeline Delivers A 44% Total Return In 2014; Look For 25-30% In 2015 On Back Of Transport Mega Projects And Contango In Bulk Storage [View article]
    Many firms like Schwab will be more than happy to do the currency translation for you and invest in IPL (as opposed to IPPLF). My understanding is that IPPLF gets traded (and linked) to the IPL price on the TSX, and that was true of my transactions. So it's not like there isn't liquidty there (even though IPPLF share count is much lower than IPL every day), it's just that there is more demand for IPL than IPPLF. But you will never have a liquidty problem selling IPPLF unless there is a liquidity problem selling IPL.

    One thing to remember - IPL issues a dividend paid in C$, and IPPLF investors get that dividend translated to US$. And, as I have pointed out in previous article, IPL is a dividend paying Canadian corp. that falls under the C/US treaty which means if US investors hold IPPLF (or IPL) in a qualified retirement account, no foreign taxes (i.e. Canadian tax) are paid on the dividends.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inter Pipeline Delivers A 44% Total Return In 2014; Look For 25-30% In 2015 On Back Of Transport Mega Projects And Contango In Bulk Storage [View article]
    fairguy - yes, I like the midstream sector here, very much so. This is one reason I have thought for years now that PSX was such a good bet on "Shale USA" due to the company's exposure not only to the Brent/WTI spread, but also midstream transport. Many MLPs sold off last year have little or no commodity price exposure and seem very attractive today - which is why I have been writing a lot of articles on MLPs. There is some interest rate risk that could affect valuations, but if the partnership is growing volumes and distributions they should do well.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inter Pipeline Delivers A 44% Total Return In 2014; Look For 25-30% In 2015 On Back Of Transport Mega Projects And Contango In Bulk Storage [View article]
    Interesting question Timmie, but IPL is more leveraged to the price of NGLs than to oil. In the EU, the storage business is not so much related to the price of oil, but to the futures price of oil.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inter Pipeline Delivers A 44% Total Return In 2014; Look For 25-30% In 2015 On Back Of Transport Mega Projects And Contango In Bulk Storage [View article]
    Hello Timmie - sorry for the late reply, big ice-storm had me off grid for 4-days. Wrt valuation, I think IPL has such a clear line-of-sight to long-term EBITDA growth via take-or-pay contracts that a P/E=33 is very reasonable considering FY15 EBITDA estimates. In fact, IPL seemed to sell-off with lower oil prices even though the primary EBITDA growth engine (long-term oil sands transport contracts) has no commodity price exposure. Storage business in the EU could be some nice contango upside too.
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Policy: Time To Repeal Oil Export Ban, Build Keystone-XL, And Adopt Natural Gas Transportation [View article]
    Hi Expat - not sure your first sentence is compatible with your 4th, and that is the point: close the gap between WTI and Brent. That would be a huge benefit to domestic shale-oil producers. The spread is currently $10. Considering the Bakken is producing over 1 million bpd, that's potentially $10+ million a day, or $3.65 billion a year...
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Policy: Time To Repeal Oil Export Ban, Build Keystone-XL, And Adopt Natural Gas Transportation [View article]
    I think the agreement to load 25% of capacity with Bakken crude was to make the pipeline proposal more palatable to the US as it would help alleviate the exit capacity bottleneck in North Dakota.
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Policy: Time To Repeal Oil Export Ban, Build Keystone-XL, And Adopt Natural Gas Transportation [View article]
    Actually, the export ban has been in place for decades and was obviously not introduced by Obama. The Obama administration has eased the export ban, but allowing some very lightly refined crude products to go out the door:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    and has been giving silent approval of condensate exports. My message was more to the Republican controlled Congress to actually initiate an appeal, or at least a modification, of the export ban.
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MPLX Energy Logistics: An MLP Very Much Like 2014 #1 Performer Phillips 66 Partners [View article]
    Hello BASEBALL - I am not familiar with either MLPL or ALDW so prefer not to offer an opinion. However, I will put them on my list of possible article candidates. Thanks.
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gran Tierra Energy: On Sale For Half Price [View article]
    Yup, no one knows when the bottom will come, but certainly global storage volumes is one thing to watch. If they peak, look out below (big-time). If they start to level off and then fall, we could see crude rally.
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MPLX Energy Logistics: An MLP Very Much Like 2014 #1 Performer Phillips 66 Partners [View article]
    Better late than never. But as the article points out - both partnerships (PSXP and MPLX) have very large eligible drop-down inventories of 10+ years from their respective GPs. So one could argue, at least I did argue, that the party is perhaps just beginning. As evidence, note the excellent access to both debt and equity markets PSXP just displayed when funding an impressive $1.1 billion drop-down from PSX.
    Feb 20, 2015. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Policy: Time To Repeal Oil Export Ban, Build Keystone-XL, And Adopt Natural Gas Transportation [View article]
    Like I said, we need pragmatic energy policy. One part of being pragmatic is being able to change policy when it makes sense to do so. Putting time limits on policies that could be greatly influenced by a number of external factors is, well, not very prudent.
    Feb 20, 2015. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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