Michael Fitzsimmons

How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence

once again, nice article john. i do like the comparison table very much. my definition of "clarity" if the objective is to:
- reduce foreign oil imports
- reduce CO2 and particulate emissions
- prevent dependence on battery production and foreign sources

is to build vehicles based on the simple and proven concept of a:

***** Natural Gas / Electric Hybrid *****

think prius with an engine running on US produced natural gas instead of an engine running on foreign oil. at the same time, the battery requirements are much reduced over PHEV and pure EVs. we could be producing these cars now and refueling them in the garage with a FSYS "phill" home garage refueling appliance. this isn't rocket science, but some people sure like to complicate the hell out of a problem.

The Obama Fast Track for Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)

wrt your last paragraph, it also makes no sense to make these hybrid vehicles based on gasoline instead of natural gas. a natural gas electric hybrid like this toyota concept vehicle:

www.autoblog.com/2008/...

continues to be the best transportation solution i have seen to address both the foreign oil import issue as well as environmental concerns. if obama would simply invite mr. toyoda to the white house to discuss american support for toyota manufacturing this car in volume, and support the natural gas infrastruture needed to refuel it, he would make more headway on US economic, environmental, and national security challenges than all of his other initiatives ... combined!

The Plug In Vehicle Scam

john: interesting piece you referred me to. i could discuss it in detail, or just repeat what my SA profile says:

"Peak oil, and not global warming, is the most immediate threat to the human race. Although the solutions generally address both issues, the distinction is one of urgency."

i continue to believe this, and that US produced natural gas transportation is the best way to protect the US from the bullet of peak oil aimed between our eyes. the facts that burning natural gas has 50% less CO2 emissions than coal and 20-30% less CO2 than gasoline, as well as none of the toxic particulates coal and oil emit, are more feathers in the cap of natural gas and strengthen the case for it. the toyota electric/nat gas camry i mentioned before is the best solution i have seen. it could be mass produced in a new york second, and we could start reducing foreign oil imports, CO2 and particulate emissions immediately. meanwhile, we keep getting distracted by other technologies that either aren't proven, aren't ready, or will realisitically require recharging by coal because wind and solar will take years to build out to such a capacity as to replace foreign oil. all that said, i consider myself an environmentalist, and i am all for solar and wind and EVs. at the same time, i urge folks to be pragamatic about the magnitude of the foreign oil import problem the US faces, and to be realistic about solutions and timelines.

The Plug In Vehicle Scam

spot on john. i continue to believe the most logical automobile for the US (and the world) is the electric/nat gas vehicle toyota announced yet refuses to build:

www.autoblog.com/2008/...

if obama wasn't focused on the "clean coal" myth, and if energy secretary chu wasn't "agnostic" about natural gas transportation, perhaps they would have the time to sit down with toyota and find out what US policies would have to change in order for toyota to supply these electric/nat gas camry hybrids by the *millions* to US consumers. it is the best transportation solution today to address the economic, environmental, and national security problems posed by US foreign oil addiction. but alas, i suppose that would just make too much sense, and how can the gov subjugate and master its citizens if they had the mobility such a car would enable.

Cleantech, Optimism Squared and the Battery Industry

johnP: wrt your comment on constraints/opportunity, i think that is why i am such a big nat gas transportation fan. the constraints are pretty simple and very solvable: chicken-n-egg scenario with respect to NGV and refueling availability (of both). on the electric car front (i.e. battery technology) it doesn't seem as simple to me, nor, from a time constraint standpoint, as rational as NGV's. even if electric cars were available in quantity today, they'd be re-charged by coal (bad). it will be a minimum of a decade to build the wind/solar/nuclear infrastructure needed to signficantly reduce foreign oil imports. economically, environmentally, and from a national security standpoint - the US is simply running out of time. therefore, to take the pressure off electric and hydrogen powered vehicles, and to do something proactive over the next 10 years to address the trifecta of big problems just mentioned, it seems to me the pragmatic, technically proven, feasible, and logical move is to place a big bet on NGVs. not just for fleets, but for middle class homes and electrical power generation. americans can save $trillions of dollars and prevent trillions of lbs of CO2 from entering the atmosphere over the next 10 years by taking this step. meantime, let's build the solar, wind, and nuclear infrastructure we'll need to power EV's or generate hydrogen fuel. if i missed your point on constraints/opportunity trade offs, perhaps you could clarify. thanks!

Cleantech, Optimism Squared and the Battery Industry

i always enjoy your articles john. i couldn't help noticing how your "family reunion test" resembles my "can i fly-fish in colorado the rest of my life test". so here's the question: if natural gas vehicles were widely available at dealers, and if CNG refueling stations were abundant, would your family drive to your reunion in an NGV and would i go to the mountains of colorado in an NGV? i can answer affirmative to the later. so, it's not difficult to find a warren buffet type "known" technology...it is staring us right in the eyes and has been around for decades. unfortunately, honda appears to be the only company engaged. considering our abundant natural gas resources in this country, that is a sad commentary on america. regardless, your article was well written and made me think. good action.

Smart Grid's Enabler - Alternative Energy Storage

ok, while making my coffee i realized what my real problem is with battery storage of alternative energy. rather than store the energy in batteries in order to put that energy back on the grid to recharge EV and hybrid batteries, why not come up with a process that simply charges the end-use batteries directly? in other words, have a bank of EV batteries at the alt energy site, charge them at the site, and truck (or rail) the charged batteries into cities and towns such that they can be exchanged for discharged batteries. kinda like project better place's process, just expanded to the grid. this would have the advantages of lower overal battery requirements and prevents the losses associated with transmission and distribution. it would of course require standardizing on battery design types, both electrically and physically such that a minimum of different battery types would be used.

Smart Grid's Enabler - Alternative Energy Storage

i haven't done any calculations (haven't had any coffee yet...), but my gut feel is that the sheer size of battery capacity needed to provide ample and adequate energy storage for an alternative energy based smart grid will simply be enormous. i wonder if the price estimates for these various battery technologies have taken into account the magnitude of total battery production needed for energy grid backup and for providing batteries for EV's and hybrids? have you by any chance done so? perhaps this could be calculated in cubic meters of batteries needed to smooth out the supply. perhaps it is in the articles you refer to - i haven't read them yet.

there are two storage mechanisms I've been asked about previously that were not covered in this article: electrolysis and molten salt. does the omission of these two technologies mean they aren't cost efficient or that they are technologically insufficient in some way? thanks. btw - good article.

Lead-Acid, Lead-Carbon Batteries: The Only Option for Average Consumer

very interesting commentary on the economics vs range on EV's which seems obvious after reading, but i must admit the logic never struck me before. that said, discussions on EV battery technology, foreign battery manufacturing, and EV range bring me back to a the following model for a nuclear family's garage: an electric/nat gas hybrid, refuelable in the garage and on the interestate highway system by nat gas refueling stations (which obama's stimulus plan should be emphasizing now). this vehicle would:
0) leverage existing proven technologies
1) leverage electric use on short trips (wind, solar feeding the grid...)
2) reduce our imports of foreign oil
3) reduce greenhouse gas emissions
4) create good jobs in the energy and automotive industries
and
5) create an infrastructure that will pay dividends for decades.
any thoughts?

America Must Rebuild Domestic Battery Manufacturing Infrastructure

your title is dead on. imagine what the $700 billion paulsen and bernanke have thrown at the "financial crisis" could have accomplished had it been thrown at:

1) battery research, development, and manufacturing technology (similar to the Sematech organization in semiconductors)
2) wind and solar electric generation
3) building out the electrical grid infrastructure

i can only hope the obama team "get it" and use their "stimulus package" in a much more useful way (i.e. the above 3 items) than the ridiculous paulsen and bernanke strategy (just more money to the bankers and wall streeters who put us in this deep hole).

Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance

sorry, the above comment should have been Carter reduced US foreign oil imports by "5 million barrels per day", not "50%". typing too fast....

Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance

1) Carter's policies reduced US oil imports by 50%, made the country aware of energy's ability to cripple our economy (as the Arabs did), and raised fuel economy standards for automobiles (just think where we would be today without that). to detract from Carter's work in this area (the best of any president's), and not to mention the oil-centric disaster that Bush has been wrt energy policy, is simply not objective. i repeat, it was the bush ethanol mandates that brought on food inflation, not the Carter tax subsidies (note the food inflation didn't really hit until recently as Bush's idiotic ethanol mandates kicked in). you cannot blame Carter's actions in the late 1970s for something that happened in 2008.
2) the DOE publishes something like their prediction of vehicle sales in 2030?? come on John...anyone who has the slightest idea of oil supply/demand fundamentals (and the DOE has proven it hasn't the slightest clue), knows that these DOE estimates of vehicles sales is nothing but pure dreaming. the DOE has an oil centric bias, yet doesn't have a clue about oil supply/demand fundamentals. using their data is not only misleading, but dangerous. statistics, sure. prognostications about the future, F-
3) i understand it's an article about investment ideas. but at the same time, listing investment choices in an area as specific as "alternative energy storage" without acknowledging the possible competition to those investment choices seem an omission to me. much of your analysis on batteries is good, and they will certainly be used in electric only and hybrid cars. however, the larger playing field of solar and wind energy array storage, well, i am not so sure batteries are the way to go. are you? do you think batteries, with the cost and capacity needed, will be the way to go to store energy from wind and solar for those times when the wind isn't blowing and the sun isn't shinning? just curious.

Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance

John: nice article and you had some important things to say. that said, i'd like to point out a few things:
1) your implication was that the Carter ethanol tax credits were responsible for the recent food inflation. they were not. it was the bush ethanol *mandates* (i.e. mandates forcing the amounts of ethanol blended gasoline) that caused the huge disruptions in the food chain.
2) the DOE has been dead wrong on every major energy policy affecting the US and the department should simply be shut down. presenting DOE data is a good way to be discredited. for instance, the DOE has been wrong on oil price predictions, supply/demand prognositications, and you yourself point out the lack of support for US produced natural gas transportation. DOE policy and predictions make it one of the most dangerous departments of the US government.
3) i am very surprised an article on alternative energy storage didn't go into more detail on molten salt and electrolysis production of hydrogen. in my opinion (and i am still studying the matter) both these system are potentially more cost effective energy storage mediums for large wind and solar arrays than are batteries, as well as being more environmentally friendly.