Michael Fitzsimmons

ConocoPhillips: More Than Just a Great Stock

i agree, it's seldom you can buy a company of COP's quality when the PE damn near equals the dividend yield. in the longer term, the America has no alternative but to migrate transportation solutions toward US produced natural gas. that said, the American gov, media, and people (outside of picken's following) have yet to figure this out, however, within the next few years, it will become ever more apparent that we have no choice but to leverage US natural gas production. when we DO figure it out, COP's value will also become more apparent as the US's second largest natural gas producer.

Is Warren Buffett Missing Something?

SuperDon: yup, that youtube video is the segment i saw on CNBC and mentioned in my article. what i attempted to point out is that if Buffet truly believes in peak oil, the investment in Wrigley puzzles me. i believe in peak oil, and i must say that investing in chewing gum might not be my last choice, but it's definitely toward the bottom of the list. i can't say that carpet or bricks would be near the top either. now, railroads, or ConocoPhillips is another story - it's in the right industry segment, and its earnings and stock price are moving in the right direction. but like i said, who am i to second guess buffet, and, as i also pointed out that it's MARS who really bought Wrigley's, not Berkshire. Buffet is the financier and will take a minority stake in the subsidiary. still, i just gotta think there are better investments for BRKA shareholder's than chewing gum. the other point i tried to make was buffet has given alot of money to worthy causes. if he believes in peak oil, then surely he must know that it is absolutely the biggest national security threat to the US. in that case, why doesn't he use his influence, power, and money to prod our incompetent US government to 1) acknowledge peak oil, and 2) adopt a real energy policy to deal with it. he seems content to make money while waiting for the US to go down the tubes. i think harry truman would have given up the money and done what is right for the country. it's just an observation, but it was the main point i was attempting to make with the article. thanks for your comments.

Is Warren Buffett Missing Something?

pursley: your bloggin website is *awesome*

yes, buffet is right that production is at an all-time high. and, i agree it is still rising and will continue to for a few more years. yet, so is demand. the real issue is supply/demand balance. the CEO of ConocoPhillips questioned whether man will ever produce more than 100 million BPD, yet the EIA is projecting 150 million BPD demand in the not too distant future. that is quite a disconnect...

Is Warren Buffett Missing Something?

fx: the point i was trying to make is: are people really going to have disposable income for gum when their energy costs are rising and food inflation is going through the roof? that's one of the realities of peak oil - economically, the majority of people on are going to have a very very hard time making ends meet. why then was i looking at berkshire in the first place? well, i wanted a more diversified approach than simply investing in "energy" and i like the insurance/reinsurance business of berkshire as well as their balance sheet. that said, i did not buy BRKA because i am not sure they "get it" when it comes to peak oil, imho. i think they have too much exposure to the consumer, who, i believe will continue to struggle mightily in the years to come (until the US develops an energy policy). also, i respectfully disagree wrt to energy company's earnings...i think they will be very very profitable for many years to come. people need gasoline and natural gas alot more than they need Wrigley's doublemint gum.