Michael Fitzsimmons

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

jarco: you must have been leaving a msg same time as me, so i missed you last go round. if ron paul has an "odor" as you suggest, i want to inhale deeply and smell it all. he is the *only* guy who has had the guts in the oversight hearings to call out both greenspan and bernanke for their failed Fed policies. it is PAUL who has written the legislation calling for the Fed to be audited so americans can find out where the money is going and exactly how much. and you might think his following is small, but have you checked out the number of cosponsors this bill has gained recently? further, paul has consistently called out the unconstitionality of not only the Fed's existance and paper money, but also the war in iraq. he has also been a shining light in calling for the Congress to bring the troops home and spend the money on schools, hospitals, roads, and infrastructure in this country as opposed to iraq, afghanistan and the other far flung places on the globe. i wish the hell i had my obama vote back, because that vote turned out to be a waste and a continuation of failed bush policies. as far as the bailouts, the US gov taking my (and all middle class taxpayer's money) and bailing out the richest fraudsters was just wrong (and is, indeed, fascism at the highest level possible). further, you say "NG distribution is meager at best", and this is also grossly inaccurate. in fact, the natural gas pipeline system in america goes to 60,000,000 homes where 130,000,000 cars and trucks could be refueled every night while their owners sleep!! the natural gas distribution system in the US, combined with our abundant reserves is the #1 STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE the U.S. has over every other country on Earth! if the chinese had our natural gas infrastructure, they would be NGV crazy and their officials have said so. but they don't have the natural gas pipeline distribution we have and can only wish they did! wrt the energy plan you said is lacking, there is a link in the article to my energy plan. it is a strategic long-term comprehensive energy policy. please read, and leave a comment! i'll even make it easy for you:
thefitzman.blogspot.co...
also disagree that nuclear should replace coal - to expensive and takes too long. all coal plants should be replaced with natural gas generation ASAP. nukes should be on the drawing board for the future. replace the coal with nat gas now.

GMaximus: gold is rising because oil prices already rose. please look at the chart. the last oil crisis was in the 1970's and look when gold made it's all time highs (right afterward as pointed out in the article). in 2008, oil went to $145/barrel and now gold is going to skyrocket in response. wrt currency, the *reason* the currency is being devalued is *because of* the economic dislocations due to $145/barrel *imported* oil. all the people involved in financial "services" had to create fraudulent ways to "earn" money because the US is making anything any more, and we have a huge trade deficit whose biggest component is, you guessed it, OIL. so, everything is driven by oil: oil spikes, then gold (not the other way around). so, it is OIL that is driving gold prices and US currency devaluation since the US imports 65% of its oil and cannot possible sustain that without printing more paper money. your post and the others along the same line have not changed my opinion on this matter, and i believe the very simple fact that oil spike first and gold follows proves i am correct.

FreeState: what is "PTB" please? wrt peeling the onion, we'd better peel it sooner rather than later or we'll have all the tears a chopped onion would give us without ever getting to actually eat the onion. for the Fed and Treasury to print money, put it on the backs of middle class taxpayer, and give it to their friends (who are all now buying gold and storing it outside the country) is about as bad as it could possibly get and must be stopped. thank god for ron paul and i support his efforts completely, and so should you if you are, indeed, a "free state yank". cause i am (originally from upstate NY)

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

Mahavishnu: well, president johnson eventually felt so horrible about the JFK ordeal...he eventually championed civil rights for black people and then couldn't bare to run again and dropped out of the election. his civil rights acts had the side effect of turning the "solid south" from democrats to republicans...the so called "conservative christian right". as we know after 8 years of bush, there is nothing "conservative" about them (including the deficits and idiotic foreign policy) and they are in fact radical....further..there is nothing "christian" about them either, but boy do they know how to use religion to accomplish their goals.

MarkDivy: i would challenge you right back: how much oil does the US defense dept use everyday? you'll be amazed how much that one dept of the US gov ranks on the list of top world consumers of oil. 2nd, what do you think the geopolitical risk premium due to US led oil wars is putting on the price of a barrel of oil? 3rd, what do you think the US defense dept bill is to secure, protect, and acquire US oil would be if the US gov actually did a thorough accounting of the cost? i'll somewhat answer that question by saying if the true cost were passed on to consumers, we'd being paying a helluva lot more for gasoline at the pump. the issue is similar to coal, if the true cost of health care and pollution due to using coal were passed on to the consumer, our electric bill would be MUCH higher. all this subsidation by the US government of oil and coal is at the detriment of natural gas: the real, cleanest, cheapest, most abundant fuel of all. it is absolutely insane energy, environmental, and foreign policy.

WayneS: well, we cannot get off foreign oil by using fuels that rely on it - this includes diesel and biofuels that require mixing with gasoline. wrt natural gas, there are simply NO studies proving that it is any more dangerous a transportation fuel than is gasoline. there are many countries (brazil, italy, pakistan) not to mention enlighted US states like Utah and Oklahoma that are succesfully using CNG in cars and trucks and it is SAFE (not to mention half the price of gasoline/diesel and much more environmentally friendly). please, don't fall victim to the scare tactics of big oil and coal.

boxed merlot: not sure i am following you...but plz realize i recommend both oil and gold as investments.

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

Mahavishnu: well, president johnson eventually felt so horrible about the JFK ordeal...he eventually championed civil rights for black people and then couldn't bare to run again and dropped out of the election. his civil rights acts had the side effect of turning the "solid south" from democrats to republicans...the so called "conservative christian right". as we know after 8 years of bush, there is nothing "conservative" about them (including the deficits and idiotic foreign policy) and they are in fact radical....further..there is nothing "christian" about them either, but boy do they know how to use religion to accomplish their goals.

MarkDivy: i would challenge you right back: how much oil does the US defense dept use everyday? you'll be amazed how much that one dept of the US gov ranks on the list of top world consumers of oil. 2nd, what do you think the geopolitical risk premium due to US led oil wars is putting on the price of a barrel of oil? 3rd, what do you think the US defense dept bill is to secure, protect, and acquire US oil would be if the US gov actually did a thorough accounting of the cost? i'll somewhat answer that question by saying if the true cost were passed on to consumers, we'd being paying a helluva lot more for gasoline at the pump. the issue is similar to coal, if the true cost of health care and pollution due to using coal were passed on to the consumer, our electric bill would be MUCH higher. all this subsidation by the US government of oil and coal is at the detriment of natural gas: the real, cleanest, cheapest, most abundant fuel of all. it is absolutely insane energy, environmental, and foreign policy.

WayneS: well, we cannot get off foreign oil by using fuels that rely on it - this includes diesel and biofuels that require mixing with gasoline. wrt natural gas, there are simply NO studies proving that it is any more dangerous a transportation fuel than is gasoline. there are many countries (brazil, italy, pakistan) not to mention enlighted US states like Utah and Oklahoma that are succesfully using CNG in cars and trucks and it is SAFE (not to mention half the price of gasoline/diesel and much more environmentally friendly). please, don't fall victim to the scare tactics of big oil and coal.

boxed merlot: not sure i am following you...but plz realize i recommend both oil and gold as investments.

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

WilliamDav: if the last 10 years has shown me anything, it's that the rule of law in the US is on very shaky ground. we had an unconstitutional and unwise war. we had the "patriot act". if the rule of law meant anything, bush would have been impeached in his first term. if we had the rule of law, we'd see many many people behind bars for financial fraud. yet, the big 3 ratings agencies are still rating aren't they? the Fed is still stealing money from middle class taxpayers. it's like the argument everyone makes that the geopolitical risks in other countries is so great, while at the ignoring the huge risks of living and breathing in the USA. but i digress, yes, i have some paper assets as well - mostly all oil since i am a firm believer (obviously) that oil is the most precious commodity of all (and the new world reserve currency!) and that worldwide oil production will not keep pace with worldwide demand given a "functioning" world economy (and the world economy is too built upon oil). but, i like my gold, and no its not under my mattress but buried down by a creek near an old tree where a raccoon protects it ;)

EconomicPh: and i maintain that the world runs on oil, not gold, and therefere gold is simply a reflection of the world's economic problems as oil causes distortions, ala the early 80's and now, both of which gold skyrocketed **after** oil. oil leads, gold follows. it's really very simple if you don't over analyze.

Davewmart: i have already written an article on natural gas reserves, please find and read. shale gas has changed the entire energy outlook. over the last decade, in spite of the fact that big oil was exploring for OIL, more natural GAS was found than oil (!). it's everywhere, it's abundant. XOM, the most conservative oil company on the planet, is ready to build a very expensive pipeline to bring alaskan nat gas to the lower48. why? because the nat gas is *abundant* cheap and clean. please read robert hefner's book "The GET" (i did a book review on this) and then get back to me. thx.

GL Turner: gov sachs is right! anyhow, you hit the nail on the head: natural gas is so abundant, and so cheap, and the pipeline distribution system in the US so mature and extensive, that the thought of americans filling up at home with nat gas at $1.50 GGE would be real FREEDOM, because the gov or big oil cannot control the price! the top 5 nat gas producers account for less than 10% of US nat gas production. that is, it is dominated by small independent producers with royalties being paid to thousands of farmers and landowners. again, this is why nat gas transortation is a symbol of american freedom and democracy...and that is what scares the government...REAL freedom.

ripski: yup, agree nukes are needed. that said, i am skeptical of a model of transportation built on fully electric cars with huge battery packs, which will be expensive and use huge amounts of resources to make and service. i like nat gas and hydrogen as transportation fuel. as hefner so brilliantly puts it, we need to move beyond dirty and expensive solid and liquid fuels of the 20th century (which i think include batteries..) and onto the cheap and clean gaseous fuels of the 21st century (natural gas, hydrogen, wind, and solar). obviously i think the priority in the short term (next couple decades) should be on natural gas as a bridge to hydrogen and while we're building out solar and wind.

tempo dulu: you're certainly entitled to your opinion, even if it's wrong. the "mathematical basis" you seek is the chart, that shows how gold prices pop **after** oil prices pop. that is called cause and effect, and that is what the article is about. the world economy depends on oil, not gold. that is why gold *follows* oil.

tructor: but they are still printing money and spending it...so why not spend it on nat gas transportation? to me, it's a question of acknowledging the problem and funneling the money toward it. but yeah, i got your point, and agree.

auto44: the coal lobby is responsible for alot of very bad policy. however, the coal lobby is not responsible for the current rise in gold prices, that's following the oil price. that said, i agree the electrical transmission grid needs updating!

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

whippet: however, both gold and oil are priced in US dollars and the US must have oil for its economy to function. therefore, not only is the fed printing money to give away to its buddies, but also to pay for all the imported oil we need day after day, week after week, month after month. so it is OIL driving GOLD, not the other way around. the american people and economy could function fine without gold, but try driving to work on the strength of your gold earrings. oil is THE most precious commodity on Earth. instead of acknowledging that, and doing something about it, american policymakers ignore it or fight oil wars to obtain it. therefore, gold is going much much higher in US dollar terms because the nation is no closer to reducing foreign oil imports post $145/barrel as it was when oil was $30/barrel. we live in an ignorant country.

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

buddhabill: well said!

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

wow! some excellent posts this time! it reminds me of my early days on SA! people are thinking again - wonderful give and take! my turn:

ToddPeterson: suppose your AK47 gets you through a currency collapse and you manage to survive on the other side of it. how will you secure your net worth going forward? i maintain in such a scenario gold, silver, and precious metals have historically been the way, and will continue to be the way.

Davewmart: well, i suppose we just disagree: natural gas reserves in the lower48 and alaska ARE for real. so is the natural gas in qatar, australia, brazil, and around the world. wrt making ammonia from natural gas, the question is why bother? since natural gas can power transportation and electrical generation cleanly and cheaply, and since the US has abundant supply, all we need do is simply USE IT.

MelShapiro: awesome post! and you're right, in order to get the "new world order" that bush#1 spoke of and the "one world currency" that the world is clamoring for (and you can bet skull and bones is in on all that...), they first must destroy the american system and the american democracy and the american spirit. that is what bush#2 started and what obama is continuing. that is why i point to an NGV in the home garage being refueled there by a nat gas refueling appliance like the "phill" as a badge of American freedom and democracy. but see, that is exactly what the US gov does NOT want us to have: freedom of mobility and the ability to refuel at home with domestic natural gas. because if we had freedom to be mobile, and freedom from oil prices, the middle class would be STRONG, and they want us weak. anyhow, great post and thanks.

Tructor: how will they be paid for? just think how many cars and trucks could have been converted to NGVs for the cash for clunkers. just think of how many CNG refueling stations and home garage refueling appliances (the "phill") could have been bought for the bonus money the Fed gave to rich executives at AIG, BofA, ML, GS, etc. etc. etc. we could have had an entire natural gas infrastructure for the money the US has spent in Iraq with money left over. the money is there, the key is to force congress, our numbnut presidents, and our ridiculous federal reserve, energy, and treasury departments to acknowledge the foreign oil problem and adopt the solution to this crippling ailment: natural gas transportation.

longoil: thanks, i'll read the article when i have more time and research this issue further.

gravity404: i climb lots of mountains, and if you call being a patriotic american and trying to save the country and democracy by facing our problems head on "beating my head against the wall", then guilty as charged.

waf76: thanks for the compliments and for pointing out PBR's fuel station strategy in brazil - if only exxon, cvx, and cop in the US provided the same. however, i disagree that the US can wean itself off of foreign oil: we could cut 6-7 million barrels of oil a DAY out by simply converting half the cars and trucks over to run on CNG. as far as israel is concerned, i have written before how the "special relationship" will bring both countries down and almost assure the destruction of israel. it's a strategically flawed relationship in a number of ways. that said, have you ever taken a look at how many jewish people are in charge of US policy and also involved in the biggest financial frauds? greenspan, bernanke, shapiro, gensler, madoff, milken, lebowitz, it just goes on and on. i used to not understand why arab leaders called the US a "zionist regime", but now i understand. now, before all the anti-semitic comments come, this is just an obvious observation: that is, a group that makes up such a small percentage of americans have an overwhelming influence on policy and at the same time have oversight responsibilities over others who have close relationships. it's a very unhealthy situation and they are certainly doing a lousy job of making america strong...but, i must say, they are certainly good at enriching themselves...

davewmart: the natural gas is there (here) and everywhere. most all experts are now in agreement on that. the reason i want to shut down all the coal plants is not just CO2, it's the real problem with coal: the toxic heavy metal residue left over after burning coal and the fact that this crap and its particulates are in every lake, river, and creek in the US and now showing up in the water tables all over the country. we've destroyed the fresh water fish, and we are well on our way to destroying our fresh water supplies. it's idiotic to keep doing this when science and evidence is screaming not to. natural gas has 50% less CO2 than does coal, and 100% less toxic particulates (that is, there is no "fly-ash") left over from burning nat gas.

slamstocks: thanks. every time i hear "brilliant" i think of that guinness commercial that says "some guy had the idea to put six of these bottles together. brilliant!"

williamdav: but if there is a true currency crisis, will the paper assets you mention make it through to the other side? i wonder myself. that said, yeah, i own oil stocks - it's really the only thing left after gold and silverand precious metals (imho). oh, and yeah, some international stuff - nothing else here.

jimbo: thanks. both parties are failing america, and failing badly, and the two parties are interconnected at the navel. i believe they are intentionally weakening the US to bring about bush#1's "new world order" and a one world currency. the key to preventing this is by preserving our mobility using our abundant cheap and clean domestic fuel: natural gas. once we are dependent on oil rationing, the grand US "capitalistic democracy" experiment will be over. btw, biofuels in the US is a failed proposition: all they do is blow out food and water resources with terrible dislocations across those sectors. in the end, biofuels in the US are just an excuse to keep addicted to dirty and expensive 20th century liquid fuels instead of clean and cheap 21st century gaseous fuels.

EconomicPh: your theory is completely backwards because oil is the one strategically necessary commodity, not gold. the world economy must have oil to function, not gold. therefore it is OIL that is driving GOLD prices, not the reverse as you say. oil is burned when it is consumed, all gold ever produced is still around - that is yet another reason your theory is flawed and illogical.

kertch: i disagree with you. i think US/Israeli policy is disastrous for both countries and will lead to both countries paying a huge price for such ridiculous policies.

kertch (reply to todd): i agree with you on this post. all one has to do is look at what happened to britain when they lost being the world's reserve currency of choice and devalued. manufacturing fled as quickly as possible (as it now is in the US). that was a good post.

davewmart: yes, i like to use this analogy: let's say the US did not have a nuclear bomb and some other country "X" did. next, we find "X" invaded canada and mexico under false pretenses to steal their oil. now, what would the US do? we'd be fools not to develop a nuclear deterrent - just as iran is doing. it's all really very simple and it's all about oil.

rokjok777: oh, i give jimmy carter lots of credit (and not because he too went to georgia tech). he initiated *real* energy policy and the first meaty mpg fuel standards. and, as i said in a follow up post, despite every president since eisenhower's rhetoric, carter was the only one to reduce foreign oil imports, and that by 50%. but, the reason your post was so great was the very last sentence which i will repeat here:

"Rethink Perpetual War and rethink Big Oil and we'd have plenty of money for all of our other problems."

that said, we must remember that big oil is also big natural gas, and natural gas is the key to solving the foreign oil import problem.

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

User514292: ha ha ha! that post was hilarious!

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

fatpitch2: i did not know about this so thanks for the post. however, i am not sure why we'd need ammonia when we have abundant, clean, and cheap natural gas. if we built out a natural gas infrastructure correctly, we'd make many of the new pieces of that puzzle be compatible with a future hydrogen energy infrastructure which long term is the best solution. i haven't read simmons' work on this issue, but if you can point me to an article, i'd be interested to read it. thanks.

WayneS: but diesel comes from foreign oil, and it is foreign oil that is bankrupting the country. although i agree that diesel engines are more efficient, i disagree that diesel is the solution because it is not a *domestic* source of energy and therefore will not help the US unshackle the chains of foreign oil, deficit spending, a weaker currency, and a failed foreign policy based on fighting oil wars we cannot afford.

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

thanks for all the comments. i'll jump in here and add my 2 cents worth (which is worth alot less than it used to be):

longoil: you know, i always wonder about conterfeit precious metals. it wouldn't be hard to do, the profit motive is certainly there, and it's quite difficult for a small investor to check. i was going to check some coins by trying to measure electrical resistance, which is very easy to calculate. but this doesn't work very well because with an ohm meter all you really measure is surface resistance. so, a counterfeit bar as you described, would pass that check. my only solace is that i will be selling the coins back to the same outfit i bought them from, or, bartering them for goods & services so it's up to the other guy to check them. suggestions?

EconomicPh: oil is higher because of gold? that's ridiculous. you say that oil will be $133 when gold goes to $2000, so i have just one question for you: what was the price of gold when oil was $145 last year? further, how do you explain the chart in the article and the price of gold in the early 80's? your logic appears to be severely flawed. you must be one of the "economic experts" i spoke about in the article.

lucky lenny: apparently you cannot read as the article blamed both republicans and democrats (i.e. bush AND obama). funny you mentioned jimmy carter: he is the only president in US history to reduce foreign oil imports and did so by 50%. no other president has even reduced them one barrel. great president to mention in context of this article, as after carter reduced foreign oil imports, gold fell like a rock. see the chart in the article.

jrainspe: we need ron paul's legislation (which is picking up cosponsor very quickly) to force the fascist and secret Fed to reveal just how it is spending mine (and yours) tax-payer money by giving it to the millionaire and billionaire executives at the biggest insurance, banking, financial service, and mortgage firms that made money twice: once by the financial fraud that drove them to bankruptcy, and secondly by receiving the bonus bailout money paid for by you and me and given by the Fed to their best buddies. if you don't see the problem here, i can understand why you finished in the lower 50% of your class. your logic in stating that most doctors, lawyers, and engineers were along with you in that bottom 50% is also severely flawed.

Davewmart: where in the world did you read in this article that gas supplies can be expanded indefinitely? what i have said in the past (but not in this article) is that the US has enough natural gas to power:
- home heating
- industrial
- replacing ALL coal plants with nat gas generation
- power half the cars and trucks in the US
for at least 60 years, and more likely closer to 100 years. the world is similarly blessed with abundant, clean, and cheap natural gas. i guess some people do live on the moon. wrt iran, i explained US forces on two borders forced iran to develop nuclear capability, so you are preaching to the choir.

LoveShorting: thanks - i needed some support on this one! by the comments left so far, i wonder if anyone is even reading the article ;) anyhow, yeah, chu is pathetic! he should resign immediately or obama should fire him. for those two to be agnostic about the largest, cleanest, and cheapest domestic fuel the US has, and the only fuel capable of being scaled up to reduce foreign oil imports, well, it's criminal.

WilliamDave: well, interesting notes. so i am interested - what are you doing to protect your net worth in these times? i have a garden and wish i could have some chickens, goats, and cows but unfortunately i live in a neighborhood that doesn't allow such. i'd also like a big pond stocked with fish. those will be the things of value when the US eventually goes through a huge currency change. and that is coming as long as we stay addicted to foreign oil (just like in brazil).

ConocoPhillips: Updated Q3 Financial Gauge Analysis

your scoresheet tracks standard financial metrics. however, as we saw during 2007/2008, geopolitical risks and the inconvenient truth that worldwide oil supply won't keep up with worldwide oil demand over the coming years propelled oil stocks like COP much higher than standard metrics predicted. these two issues (geopolitical risk, and worldwide oil supply/demand) are still very much in play today (as evidence - just look at $70-$80/barrel oil prices in the midst of the greatest economic contraction since the great depression). add to these issues the bearish US dollar scenario, and my gut tells me that standard financial metrics, though important, don't tell the whole story. oil stocks like BP, COP, XOM, and STO are very attractive at today's prices. not only do they pay out nice dividends (although XOM's is very skimpy), but despite all the "oil company earnings are down" articles in the media, well, sure, their earnings are down, but they are still making very nice profits. hell, it was only 4 or 5 years ago that current oil prices would have been viewed as profit gushers for oil companies. and you know what? they are...

Recycling U.S. Coins into Silver

Mmarkk: i am not at all concerned about the low price of LNG because it simply reinforces what i have been saying for years: the world is awash in natural gas and we should be using it, not oil, to power transportation. wrt shipping LNG to the U.S., it's not happening. the shale discoveries and bumper storage supplies are sending LNG shipments from the middle east to europe instead. US shale discoveries are such a huge game changer it has affect nat gas prices worldwide. in fact, the "take or pay" contracts signed by european agents for russian nat gas are now a huge problem for them as these contract were linked to the price of oil (how stupid!) and they want to get them renegotiated. so, i'm not "concerned" about these things at all. the world is moving toward sustained lower natural gas prices while oil continues to go higher and higher. the question is this: will the US establish policies to take advantage of this, or, will it keep it's economy linked to oil and go down the tubes. THAT is what i am really concerned about (and was concerned about years before oil went to $145/barrel...)

Hans: perhaps i misunderstood your post, but i think i have to disagree. i can sell a $1 american silver eagle right now for over $16....soooo, newly minted silver coins *can* be worth more than the "coin value" itself.

Recycling U.S. Coins into Silver

rosco1776: i missed your post earlier. yes, the U.S. does import natural gas, but most of that is legacy canadian imports back when the U.S. though they were out of nat gas and canadian had very cheap and accessible supply. they shale plays have changed everything! even the LNG terminals are not receiving imports and the foreign supply that was supposed to come to the U.S. are now going to europe and asia. unfortunately, our policymakers don't understand the strategic importance of the new shale production and are simply not taking advantage of it. that's because the US government is run by lawyers. china's is run by engineers, and they would be all over that natural gas like bees to honey (especially if they had the 2.1 million mile natural gas pipeline distribution system we have in this country!).

Recycling U.S. Coins into Silver

blacksilver: the barter question you hit on was exactly the reason why i think investors should own both gold and silver. i think gold will probably be the best store of wealth, but like you said, when it comes to bartering, would you rather barter with a one ounce silver eagle or a one ounce gold eagle? so in the future the silver will be better for bartering, the gold as a mechanism to store wealth (and for bartering for big ticket items - like maybe a cow 100 (10?) gallons of gasoline ;)

babysdaddy: yeah, and another reason is seperating out the real silver - that's time and expense. who knows, in the future they might be a reason to just melt down a silver eagle for the actual silver. although this is against the law and i personally would never do such a thing.

joe silver: thanks for the info and i'll take your word that you know what you are talking about simply because you had better with a handle like "joe silver". that said, i'll stick with the .999 and .9999 pure silver eagles and maples (respectively).

dannyfurman: you bring up an interesting point...i guess it depends on how much you trust the seller and how good you are at spotting fakes. i have a hard time believing one of the bigger and more reputable dealers would trade silver eagles because one report of that would put them out of business. of course, it may have already happened and i just don't know about it. please let me know if you know of cases where that has happened and which dealer it was. thanks.

ConocoPhilips: Time to Embrace Natural Gas Transportation

long_on_oil: the negative EPS you site is due to a huge one time write down. i don't think this charge should be forecasted forward as an indication of the future. COP has generated large positive net income for years and years, and even after the blistering it has taken in the market during this crisis, a look at its 5 and 10 year performance is not bad at all. yes the debt is more than i'd like to see. that said, it isn't exhorbitant, and i think with oil prices where they are today ($70's!), and the divestitures the company is planning to take to pare down that debt, you may be underestimating COP's earnings going forward. the company has some mature low cost oil producing fields which are cash cows. not only that, it is clear that mulva wants to shine up his reputation before leaving...a reputation that certainly has taken a hit with the developments of the past year or two. he could salvage it easily by simply joining pickens, mcclendon, hefner, and others and push for U.S. policymakers to adopt natural gas transportation. increased demand will take the yo-yo out of natural gas prices, and then mulva's strategy of natural gas assets will enable both his reputation (and the stock price) to appreciate. unfortunately, mulva is silent on the issue....which i for one simply cannot understand.

longoil: well, to each his own. i certainly like XOM, BP, and CVX as well, and have suggested those companies many times in my articles. certainly BP and CVX had the best earnings this quarter, and BP has the best dividend of the lot. that said, from a stock appreciation perspective, at these levels, i am not so sure COP might not have the best potential gain over the next year or two. if they announce some asset sales at decent prices, and people see how the debt is indeed being reduced, and i have no doubt that will be the case, i think the leaner-meaner COP might be looked at in a much different light then today's.

doublebogey: well, that might be a birdie of an idea. the distributers get paid no matter what the price. you probably know alot more about them than i do, so i'll just say you certainly could be right.