Michael Fitzsimmons

Don't Believe Long-Term Oil Forecasts

oops, i forgot to add the biggest reason why i would agree with you, and why many others must agree with you: a $77/barrel oil price today even as:

1) demand in the US has fallen 6-7%
2) brimming worldwide oil supplies
3) the worst economic contraction since the great depression

so, if prices are $77/barrel now, where are they going if the worldwide economy picks up over the next year? where will the go if the US dollar continues downward? and lastly, where will they go if the US decides to start the 3rd war in the middle east (iran)? the outlook for oil has never been more bullish than it is today.

Don't Believe Long-Term Oil Forecasts

i tend to agree with you and site several reasons why:

1) even at oil prices of $145/barrel, production of the largest oil companies was down year-over-year

2) the US continues to spend huge sums of money to obtain oil: witness the war in iraq and afghanistan (which is not about the taliban, but about getting caspian sea energy treasures to market without going through russia or iran).

3) the chinese are now selling more cars (the vast majority of them gasoline powered) every month than america.

4) the U.S. has still not adopted a non-gasoline personal transportation solution (like natural gas vehicles) and therefore is still addicted to foreign oil despite all the rhetoric from the obama administration. it is clear obama and energy secretary chu are held firmly in the grasp of oil and coal power as they are "agnostic" about natural gas transportation even as supply has mushroomed and prices have dropped.

so, the U.S., and the world for that matter, continue on a collision course with the reality of worldwide oil supply/demand. if the economy does come back from the last prices spike (not a given), the current "glut" of oil supplies will be worked off in a matter of months and the next price spike will exceed the last one. the world is on an economic yo-yo driven by the new world reserve currency: oil. the U.S. is the biggest user by far (~25% of total), oil is priced in US dollars, but the U.S. is in deep debt and after 8 years of Bush China owns *alot* of it. so, you tell me, who is in the catbird seat going forward?

Whither Oil Prices?

by 2015, we'll see oil at $300/barrel.