Michael Fitzsimmons

How High Will the Price of Oil Go?

coal is a superb feedstock to create oil equivalents?? i will pull a john mcenroe: "you cannot be serious!" nothing can be "superb" if it destroys the environment. and i am not just talking CO2, i am talking about all the toxic heavy metal waste and particulates that comes along with coal. why on earth people want to take coal and make oil equivalents out of it when we can run transportation solutions on cleaner, cheaper, and abundant US natural gas reserves is simply beyond my comprehension.

Why Is Oil Creeping Back Up?

"creeping" up? i say more like galloping higher. to the comment above:

"oil prices up ...dollar going down...simple" (34 thumbs up...)

it actually isn't that simple. since march, oil is up over 50% and yet the dollar is only down what, 9% or so? the reason oil is going up is not only a falling dollar, but supply and demand fundamentals and traders' understanding that despite near 20 year high US inventories, a functioning world economy will burn that off very quickly (a few months). china just set a record for monthly car sales. india is selling cars and motorcycles as well. meanwhile, on the supply side, not only is OPEC cutting production but oil company E&P budgets around the world have been cut back due to the economic contraction. this sets up the next oil price spike. now, i am not saying oil prices won't retreat in the short term - i would not be surprised. that said, if the world economy begins to function "normally" again, you'll continue to see higher and higher oil prices. if the US (which consumes about 25% of total world oil supplies and imports 65% of that) continues to bank on gasoline for its main transportation fuel (instead of domestic natural gas, to my dismay...), the long term picture holds points to ever rising oil prices, an ever declining US dollar, and a declining standard of living for US citizens.

Oil Stocks: Where Can You Find Black Gold?

I feel compelled to respond to Michael66's faulty logic on why oil prices will decline. they may decline (simply due to lack of demand because of the economic crisis), but not do to his reasons. let me address them one at a time:

1) the new oil you speak of here is dug out of the earth with large trucks and then the oil is boiled out. very expensive. the finds in brazil are in very deep water and also will be expensive to produce.

2) natural gas has little to do with the price of oil in the US because (unfortunately!!!) the US does use it's large nat gas reserves for transportation. the only time it is used instead of oil is for those homes/industries where nat gas can be substituted for heating oil

3) various injections have been used for years to increased oil supply. it doesn't much affect existing reservoir depletion rates of 6-7%

4) the bush bio-fuel *mandates* did nothing but increase food chain dislocations and inflation. it did little to bring down the cost of gasoline when oil prices were $145/barrel

5) bio-diesel is a very small market percentage wise

6) nuclear doesnt replace gasoline (oil) because we don't have electric cars (unfortunately)

7) fuel efficiency has had little impact and all those vehicles still run on gasoline.

8) methane doesnt replace gasoline (oil) much at all

9) there is no such thing as clean coal, and there are no CTL plants in the US replacing gasoline demand at this time

10) solar and wind are generating electricity, but they don't replace gasoline.

every single item you list is faulty. the point is that, even if OPEC can't control the day to day price, the US imports *****70%***** of its oil regardless of the price. that huge sucking sound you hear is american wealth being transferred to the middle east, russia, and venezuela. wake up son! the only solution is a strategic long-term comprehensive energy policy - see my website for such a policy