Michael James McDonald

Michael James McDonald is now a stock market forecaster, real estate consultant and author. For twenty years he was a Senior Vice President of Investments at a major international investment firm where he managed over 500 million dollars in client assets. During his career he gave over 700 investment presentations throughout the country. He retired in 2002.

His first book, " A Strategic Guide to the Coming Roller Coaster Market", published in June 2000, was essentially a 200 page market forecast. Some say it was one of the best, long term forecasts ever made in stock market history. On the book's cover was written, "How a new model of the stock market predicts the end of the 18-year bull market ...More (1982-2000) and the beginning of a new era." The new era was to be a long term trading range market like 1970. History shows the book was published three months before the trading range market began. Only now, more than ten years later, is the accuracy of that forecast readilly apparent.

On August 30th, 2010 he annnounced at SeekingAlpha that his long term trading range market ended in March of 2009. He says this date also marked the beginning of what he called in his book, the "Final Stampede" - a sharp, five year bull market that would follow the trading range market.

In 2003 he began an in-depth study of globalization, the trade deficit and what it all means to America. In 2006, in a series of talks to groups throughout California, he detailed this and that America was living about 10% beyond its means and would soon have to suffer a major adjustment. The 2008 financial crisis was the first step in that adjustment.

His studies indicate that the American economy is now affected more by global forces than any fiscal or monetary stimulation done by Washington or the FED. Globalization is known to be very hard on workers in developed countries like England and America. On this he says, "I believe 9% unemployment is now "full employment" in America; the jobs are no longer here. For ten years - from 1998 to 2008 - excess consumer spending created millions of temporary, non essential jobs. This artifical job production masked the damage being done to America from globalization and the loss of twenty million jobs to overseas labor. There are only so many products and services people really need and too many of them are now made overseas. Now that consumer spending and savings are back to normal, this damage is readily apparent." He thinks the correctness of this view, and its forecasting consequences, will slowly be seen and accepted over the next two years.

He also says, "You can't fix a problem until you isolate the true source of that problem. I say the problem comes from outside - from the way America entered into globalization. Washington and FED aren't thinking about these things, they're just reacting. They're using old, consensus solutions that no longer apply to our global economy. We need leaders with the courage to do all the unpopular and difficult things that need to be done; not to do things in the best interest of their party or themselves, but the nation. That's a rare person. But at this critical time its necessary. Only then, with forceful, intended leadership, can we, as a nation, address and possibly correct the real issues taking us down."

He is currently working with Market Watch LLC., a real estate consulting firm in Orange County, CA and Cromford Associates LLC, in Phoenix, AZ, researching the outlook for Real Esate in both Phoenix and the Coachella Valley. His personal email address is mikemacd1234@yahoo.com.