Seeking Alpha

Michael Kudrna

View as an RSS Feed
View Michael Kudrna's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Obamacare signs up 8M [View news story]
    About 50% or so of Twitter users never posted once or even filled out their profile....are they really Twitter users or is the total number that includes them really useful at all?

    Is that the same standards used for the 8 million?
    Apr 18 10:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The House passes the Senate's fiscal cliff bill, 257-167. It now heads to the president for signature. (what's in the deal[View news story]
    TVP:

    Unfortunately the economists are claiming they are the Mathematicians and economists are the same as meteorologists. They screw up all the time, one says rain, one says sun, they continue to claim expertise AND still have a job after they screw up.

    They are akin to the stock trader that made one single good call in his career that he will remind you of every single day while not keeping track of the 99% of bad calls he made that are swept under the rug.
    Jan 3 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The House passes the Senate's fiscal cliff bill, 257-167. It now heads to the president for signature. (what's in the deal[View news story]
    bbrady:

    If we had a 300 billion dollar deficit....increasing taxes is a very reasonable request. You know that the taxes will be used to fix that small hole. Increasing taxes becomes a very logical solution when the deficit is realistically manageable.

    However, we average a 1.3 to 1.6 trillion dollar deficit which is manipulated lower due to record low interest rates making our interest payments appear lower than they will be in the near future (can't get rates low forever). This requires immediate and strong action to remedy! No business, I REPEAT, not one single business could survive with such fundamentals. Not one single bank would entertain such an idea of loaning money to a financial structure like this...but because we are the Reserve Currency, we found a bank willing to give us money so we can feed the beast more and more. That may not be the case in 10-15 years as other countries would prefer we lose our Reserve status. Just wait until our bond market starts to dictate our grim future because we are NOT ACTING now! Then the real cuts will happen...and those will be unmerciful. All because we did not act like adults right now, take our medicine today, put us in a short-term recession and bounce out of it with a vengeance fixing the path we are on and brightening our future.

    To demand that anyone pay more money on a 1.3 to 1.6 (technically higher) trillion dollar deficit resembles a blind dictatorship. To demand any citizen pay more money into a deficit that is exactly the same as a "black hole" where the money will NOT be useful and will NOT actually fix the deficit is illogical and frankly morally wrong. This comes from someone who is not a Repub, but I lean more and more to that side on this issue as these smoke and mirror discussions happen (tax the rich = save america) are the discussion of lemmings.
    Jan 3 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The House passes the Senate's fiscal cliff bill, 257-167. It now heads to the president for signature. (what's in the deal[View news story]
    Canada has similar issues in 90's. They cut spending $7 to $1 tax increase and grew jobs during the dotcom bust. They are now fiscally responsible and able to take on whatever problems come their way without an already burdened fundamentals.

    The US on the other hand, does not balance the budget and instead has a fiscal cliff deal of over $43 in tax increases to every $1 in spending cuts.

    Logical....very logical.
    Jan 2 02:06 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gastar Exploration Provides Update on Results of 2012 Operations [View article]
    Very positive news, but lawsuit against GST will continue to be a significant overhang on the stock for many months to come without updates towards a dismissal.

    If lawsuit is dismissed, stock could double very fast. That is a big "if" though and not something I make gambles on.
    Dec 19 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A new White House report warns that massive across-the-board spending cuts at the start of the new year would be "deeply destructive" to core government responsibilities and especially the military. But Pres. Obama's own defense budget calls for big cuts, and Bob Woodward's new book suggests the Administration instigated the idea of sequestration to gain political ground[View news story]
    Massive cuts? What genius confused "Massive" with "Negligible"?
    Sep 15 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware the false rally coming soon, says world-renowned bear Marc Faber. He says catalysts are currently in place that could trigger an advance. "We could go to 1450 or even 1500," Faber says. However, he warns that “we’re in the late stage of a mature market and not a new bull.” [View news story]
    Actually, the 20 year sold off between Nov 2011 and March 2012 which coincides with the market rising.

    Why are they lower now? Many bond traders still argue over that. Do you think many are rushing to buy our debt at low yields?

    Bonds are a terrible investment and not just because how risky our debt is. Inflation is higher than what bonds are paying out therefore you would not be keeping your wealth, you'd be losing it by holding them.
    Aug 16 10:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware the false rally coming soon, says world-renowned bear Marc Faber. He says catalysts are currently in place that could trigger an advance. "We could go to 1450 or even 1500," Faber says. However, he warns that “we’re in the late stage of a mature market and not a new bull.” [View news story]
    Actually, he publicly stated he was bullish in Nov 2011 stating that bonds are not safe therefore he expects the equities to rise as bondholders realize this. The market rose significantly since then.

    The media loves to hype up when he's negative on something, but they rarely cover when he's bullish on something. Usually he's bearish on something and bullish on something else....but you'd never know it by what the media covers.
    Aug 16 09:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's (MCD) reports that global comparable sales were flat for July, with sales in the U.S. down 0.1% after estimates called for a 2.2% gain. Similar sluggishness was seen in Europe and Asia, suggesting a broad loss of market share could be in play. Shares of MCD -3.1% premarket. [View news story]
    Being in the industry, I'd associate most of the early domestic July sales weakness to the HEAT WAVE that kept people inside. I saw my sales decrease significantly in that time when it was over 100 degrees for over a week in the midwest and have since rebounded.

    To verify my theory, looking at food places with stable delivery options, see if their results show sales increases in July. If not, then it could very well be the recession.
    Aug 8 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: -3.0 to 91.4, vs. consensus of 92.0, 94.4 in May. The report is a clear indication of slow growth. 23% of owners cites weak sales as one of the most important business problem.  [View news story]
    Try to get an SBA loan....that's your best bet then. 9% is too high if you are cash flowing for years with great credit, but if you're not one of the perfect candidates, 9% is better than no loan if you decide you can make the payments work within your business model.

    That's the best I could tell you based on not knowing all those particulars briefly noted above.
    Jul 10 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: -3.0 to 91.4, vs. consensus of 92.0, 94.4 in May. The report is a clear indication of slow growth. 23% of owners cites weak sales as one of the most important business problem.  [View news story]
    It's moreso the banks won't lend to "start-ups" or any small businesses that are in the high risk industry (construction, restaurant, etc...) unless they are making so much money that they don't need the money....then banks will hunt them down to try and convince them to take out a loan at low rates.

    Banks are in full protection mode still. Everytime I read an article how Chase is giving out small business loans, I think that article must be a paid article for PR. Every accountant I know that deals with small businesses has told me it only has gotten worse over the years for their clients to obtain financing. Banks are tightening up more.

    Banks should never have been bailed out....a more workable idea should have been to give each American 20-30k or whatever the calculation is instead to pay off their own debt which would ultimately help banks AND Americans.

    Rant over
    Jul 10 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Stock Setups To Ride The Market Momentum [View article]
    This was posted last night on MichaelKudrna.com, unfortunately SA didn't publish the article until this afternoon, so apologies for those who were unable to jump on the KEG trade as detailed, nice run today.
    Feb 22 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade Setups This Week: Greece Is Saved ... Again [View article]
    Per my StockTalk from this morning (before this article was published by SA), I initiated a position in KOG at 9.24 and pressed at 9.55

    http://bit.ly/zpdNdG
    Feb 14 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With 243,000 jobs created in January, the economy is starting to look more positive, which might be a big plus for Pres. Obama in the November election. Current forecasts for labor growth point toward an extremely close election, Nate Silver writes - one in which every monthly fluctuation above or below a threshold of 150K jobs created could matter.  [View news story]
    @Phemale

    You sure did get a tax hike, you just don't seem to realize it like the majority of people who lack an understanding of the financial system (high % of Obama's voter base unfortunately). Inflation = a tax on everyone regardless if you are poor or wealthy.

    Don't even get me started on Govt CPI that underestimates inflation which negates two very important costs for the average American....energy and food.

    We are in Stagflation....or worse yet, what Kass calls Screwflation.

    Feb 2009 Obama pledged to cut the deficit in half by his first term. He received everything he asked for in the first half of his term and this is all we have to show for it? He rivals Bush for worst President ever. He promises dreams built on fiscal irresponsibility to his voters who lack the basic understanding of "where does the money come from and can we sustain this path."

    Canada of all countries makes a $7 cut to $1 tax increase and fixes nearly all the same problems we had in the 90s. They balanced their budget and controlled debt AND grew jobs. They are well prepared to weather storms as future global problems are tossed their way due to their solid leadership and fiscal responsibility. Instead, we just compile problems on top of problems with a path that follows Greece, Spain, and Italy rather than the responsible path of Canada.

    He has created a sentiment of anti-anyone who is successful and anti-business creating further divide in this country. The divide in American today is going to be threatening to our future.

    Failed leadership. Obama makes Clinton look like a God to Republicans.
    Feb 5 05:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senator Marco Rubio To President Obama: Raising The Debt Ceiling A Sixth Time? [View instapost]
    For many, we are still in depression.

    One problem is it is rare that a politician actually grasps how the world economic, bond market and monetary system works. The CNBC debate made this known.

    You can't inflate out of the housing mess because the housing mess has too much inventory. I don't see how it is an inflationary issue because the main problem depressing prices is too much inventory (and still shadow inventory) that need to be bought up first before anything can be fixed. Inflation doesn't help with the inventory. Some have argued that if the govt was in a better position, they scoop up this inventory and get it off the market and slowly sell it back to the market in block sales which would spur business growth. However, our financial irresponsibility makes this all but a dream.

    Secondly, low interest rates which create inflation are not beneficial to the older generation of retired workers trying to live off their low risk income (which are now being forced into dangerous risky stocks at their age which can create another problem for Americans if stocks don't continue to do well every month....and they will not) who are unable to work at their age. Social security won't pay their bills because social security is not tied into TRUE inflation. These are people that are not in a position to maneuver at their age. These are people that don't have the options available that someone younger has to remedy their situation. These are people we should be taking care of, not kicking to the curb. We need higher interest rates for them to survive and be an asset, not another problem for us.

    What do I mean by true inflation? Well the govt numbers CPI does not fully take into account energy and food. If energy goes up, most everything else goes up in cost. The average American has to pay more with less (less disposable income) but the govt doesn't even acknowledge this. So I'd argue we are seeing FAR more inflation (therefore a weaker dollar) than most anyone outside the financial industry actually understands. Gold is at record levels and likely to reach even higher levels. If that doesn't speak of high inflation and lack of trust in the strength of the dollar...then I don't know what does.

    Our dollar is dying...paper currency doesn't work when all you do is inflate recklessly. That gives reason why the currency will fail sooner than later if we continue this path and replaced with a new currency. That's not something we want to even think about as that would create chaos for the average person who has to start over creating wealth for their family. http://bit.ly/wWA9eH

    With all due respect, I'd argue your entire plan is too simplistic. Inflation is not the cure...if it was, we wouldn't be having this talk right now as all we've done is inflate every year. If we could get rid of our debt both as a nation and as people, deflation is actually a benefit to fixing the dollar. As of right now, even talking about deflation sounds crazy because of how screwed we are as a nation. We are debt addicts as it is the easier way to avoid making tough cuts that would lower votes for certain politicians.

    Look at Canada, they are fiscally responsible allowing them to take on challenges whereas we are fiscally irresponsible allowing us to tack on more problems to the list of existing problems which means no flexibility. Canada is doing it right, they cut $7 to $1 in the 90's and fixed some of the same problems we have right now. They are likely to have a housing bust in their future, but they are in a much better position to overcome it because they are taking care of their problems, not punting it with being fiscally irresponsible. The scheme only lasts so long until it smacks you in the face.

    This is what a good leader sounds like: http://bit.ly/w73iPA

    The reality is we are going into a recession or even a depression again at some point if we continue this path. The only question is whether we do it for being responsible and cutting our deficit and debt like responsible adults taking their medicine and learning from it without sacrificing our future generations that are the true victims of this OR we wait until the bond market tells us to make the cuts. Those cuts will be more brutal than most any American is willing to listen to without fear of living in fear. Watch Greece to see what that looks like. Civil war.

    Watch Greece and watch Canada. One didn't control their finances, one did. One is able to tackle future problems for odds of a better survival rate, one didn't.

    Sorry for my comments being a bit out of order, I wanted to reply to you without waiting, but I'm multi-tasking at the moment.
    Jan 26 10:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
223 Comments
245 Likes