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Michael Kudrna  

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  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    That's a bold statement and I'm interested to see how that plays out. I think we can get into the upper 40's, but I see speculators holding it up again.

    I may reevaluate after Q2 earnings are released....I'm not touching companies until after Q2 is released.
    Jul 6, 2015. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    my target was 50, but with the momentum, we could see extremes push it below 50.
    Jul 6, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    The day you actually make a good point, the day you don't twist someones words, the day you become an adult without the need for childish attacks is the day I'll treat you like a big boy.

    Until then, time is valuable and it won't be wasted on your petty nonsense.
    Jul 3, 2015. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    Correct, but that is today's new IPO's. Many new IPO's do the same thing which devalues their long-term value, but it also takes time to destroy the share structure enough with such a compensation package.

    I think Cooperman being in this stock is a positive sign (although I'm not sure if he is still in it as last I checked it was back in Q1 for his latest holdings). Cooperman is a great investor to piggyback off of, he's very very intelligent.

    So while I agree, it's also common place these days to compensate via stock, especially with apps/tech products. That is why we need something positive for the future to offset the compensation via stock. It is to their benefit to drive the stock higher as they can sell at a higher price for more money, but either way, they will be getting a great deal of compensation anyway.

    The short squeeze on this one could be bigger than most anticipate....but we'll need a good story to turn the tables on the bears hence this article.
    Jul 3, 2015. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    That is why I didn't write this post a while back as I gave them the benefit of the doubt. It's already launched now after months of being in a soft launch to perfect the system (according to reps). Even though it's launched, it's still unknown as stock falls and nobody knows about it.

    Their job is to build shareholder value. This is so secretive it would make our Govt proud.
    Jul 3, 2015. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    I try not to predict tops or bottoms, just ranges. Currently, this is fallen more than I anticipated it would. Stocks move up in extremes and move down in extremes. This is an extreme right now, so the bottom could be any day now or it could continue if the sector continues to take punishment. That is why I specifically mentioned the 12 month timeframe as the chart is ugly....and I don't like to call bottoms as most anyone who calls a top/bottom is wrong. If they call a top/bottom right in their life, they always play that up like they are a genius, but if we actually had studies on this, I bet over 90% of top/bottom calls get it wrong....the media just highlights the right calls giving the perception someone is an oracle.

    That said, we could easily go down another $1 or this could easily shoot up $3 as shorts cover. It's really dependent on how the sector plays out the next few weeks and if GRPN gives any positive news that the investment community can get excited about (like the launch of this service).

    I would be shocked if we didn't get some upward movement into earnings though as RSI is ridiculously low indicating oversold, among other indicators noting the same.
    Jul 3, 2015. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    It's unlikely that they will be able to replace the co-founder. He co-founded this company and some argue because he couldn't get a job anywhere else as a CEO. True or not, it doesn't matter, but he's unlikely to leave unless enough internal pressure forces him to step down....and I doubt that will happen anytime soon, but it would boost stock most likely just to have new blood in there.

    Either way, the institutions ARE fed up hence the selling...but it moreso looks like sector rotation out of these stocks than specifically just GRPN (see my GRUB example).
    Jul 3, 2015. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    Fully agree. Management is too secretive and doesn't excite/build trust in investment community. This stock could be going higher on future value, but confidence is shattered and vision is foggy at best. All things that could be rectified with a management team that knows how to clearly communicate.

    The good thing is that they have a service that should be a winner, but it may take longer to see the results drive the stock rather than the anticipation of the results (which I was hoping would drive the stock). We'll see how management plays this out.
    Jul 3, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    What I said and what you claimed I said are two separate things. Nice try though....you also Yelp anonymously, don't you?
    Jul 3, 2015. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    @Tampa

    Much appreciated. From my perspective, the insider selling is a part of compensation packages. They sell when the stock goes up, they sell when the stock goes down, they sell when the stock is flat. They simply always sell. If you look at GrubHub, same problem right now. We are seeing market caps for some tech plays receive haircuts, but Groupon seems to have taken a quicker haircut than the rest which, to me, is the reason I say in the article that it's tough to say it's overvalued now. You can still argue GrubHub is overvalued, among the other plays I stated in the article.

    This is, again, a reason why the CEO needs to state what is going on, what is Groupon up to next (not generic terms anymore, give substance) give a vision how Groupon is adapting, tell everyone about this new service and how it helps Groupon, etc....instead we're not getting anything which is making conspiracy theories pop up and extra focus on insider selling. When CEO's are quiet, conspiracy theories tend to take over and they start to sound believable to some when the stock falls.

    This selling concerns me years down the road when the share structure continues to grow due to this forcing the investment community to eat up more of those shares. However, Groupon tries to offset this with share buybacks that will provide relief.

    I'm not a fan of it, but it doesn't change my thesis until the share structure is truly damaged from it.
    Jul 2, 2015. 08:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Deal To Be Had With Groupon Shares [View article]
    @doggie

    Yes, currently GRPN is pushing the deals first, not the regular priced menu....supposedly that will change after they do the initial advertising of the deals first....then they will better advertise the regular menu meaning...

    Some pizza places give away their pizza at say 50% off on GRPN. Now, if those pizza places are also attached to the To Go system, they can accept the 50% off order directly like taking an online order instead of GRPN giving the customer a redeemable coupon that they must bring in.

    So, they will have the deals PLUS the regular menu online ordering that can be sent directly to the restaurant to make the order whereas before, the deals had to be printed out by customer (or sent to email) and redeemed by bringing to restaurant.

    I consider this something that would draw current GH customers over to GRPN, but I also feel more restaurants will reduce the amount of deals they have in favor of full price items or less discounted deals. I personally don't use deals...at most I'll give a 10% off usually. So I will lose out on some transactions to those who are offering 50% off to a customer that only sees value in cheap prices rather than value in higher quality product/service.

    Make sense?
    Jul 1, 2015. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No Deal To Be Had With Groupon Shares [View article]
    I actually believe both GH and GRPN can coexist just fine in the same segment. I firmly believe the amount of business out there for both of them is very large, especially as they find ways to make it easier for customers to order....it will redefine my industry.

    Yelp is already hurting though, they do not provide value to businesses, they only destroy relationships then beg you to market with them. It's called online disinhibition or toxic disinhibition. The anonymous love to harm others and Yelp is a platform that allows the anonymous to harm others without any repercussion. Businesses don't want to work with platforms like that. GH and GRPN create mutually beneficial relationships, Yelp does not.

    The question right now for GH is where does it settle as it's already falling alongside GRPN. GH is far overvalued compared to GRPN as I noted earlier, but that doesn't mean either have reached a bottom yet. Either way, I like the long-term business structure for both of them....but that comes with short-term pain. We simply need a CEO in GRPN that provides a vision so that people are buying based on future value again. No vision = people selling because they don't see the future value.

    Good luck on your trade, I have meetings to go to now.
    Jun 30, 2015. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Deal To Be Had With Groupon Shares [View article]
    @doggie

    Yes if all they were doing is changing prices, that would make sense. Making entire structural changes to the custom section is not advisable and should be left to the experts of that particular software platform.

    My seasonal changes are more than just pricing. Most of the time my pricing stays the same, but my menu items itself change dramatically. So it would require a 2 week timeframe for GH to update my changes based on the volume of changes they tend to receive.

    Once the main menu is inputted though, the major work is already done. Groupon already has a strong portion of restaurants inputted in the Chicago area that exceeded the amount of restaurants GH had when I signed up 2+ years ago. That, in itself, is once again impressive. That is a lot of work they already accomplished. Maintaining a menu is easier than inputting a new one.

    I don't believe the focus should be on inputting new menu's anymore, they have plenty of variety. It's time to test the system, but they are emailing restaurants on a 5% marketing blast in Chicago area. Maybe 10% of Chicago people know about it by now. Every day or so, they are sending it to another 5%. Currently, none of those email blasts have hit my zip codes to see the reaction.

    We'll hopefully know more any day now.
    Jun 30, 2015. 04:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Deal To Be Had With Groupon Shares [View article]
    So, the best you can do is deflect from my factual statements that accurately disproved your entire thesis in one quick comment? I don't spend my time arguing to win, I don't care to argue to win, I discuss with people who bring valid points towards finding truth. You argue and attack to feel superior, anonymously. Your childish attacks and failed logic is all everyone needs to know about the substance of your comments and opinion.

    No need to discuss anything further with you, you invalidated your entire opinion more than once already.
    Jun 30, 2015. 04:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Deal To Be Had With Groupon Shares [View article]
    It doesn't ensure accuracy though by telling the restaurant to spend more time themselves.

    I am in the generation born into knowing technology, not all business owners have that ability. Most don't even want to think of online ordering updates. I handle most all technology issues for my brand because I know what I'm doing....which gives me a competitive advantage over the other small businesses that simply are inefficient at it, don't know what to do.

    Those businesses would screw up their menu's completely if they tried to do it themselves. On top of it, GRPN would be giving an inferior product to be the ONLY company out there telling the restaurant to "do it yourself." That is a sure fire way to lose to the competition. They need to know their system and be great at it...they need to become experts. If they can't do that, they will only lose to a company that will do it right. Restaurants are considered the toughest industry to operate and they don't have time to do more...especially with the Govt constantly strangling them with new regulations, new taxes, etc... I'm still waiting on President Obama to build my business for me. I guess he's busy building someone elses right now.

    Jokes aside, the restaurant provides the updates to the technology team via email. The tech team can have a 24 hour turnaround (for simple changes) or need a 2 week turnaround (for big seasonal updates). As long as you play within the rules, those work just fine with GH and no need to fix. No need for GRPN to change that which already works. They simply need to just offer the same customer service to restaurants while being a better driver of new customers than GH. With their existing network, they should get off to a faster start than most.....however CEO being so secretive impedes that.

    I only pay for the sales I get in about the same structure of GH. If they don't get me any sales, I pay nothing.
    Jun 30, 2015. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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