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Michael Kudrna  

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  • Yelp in tailspin, down 20% as analysts downgrade en masse [View news story]
    Angies list has a ridiculous fee structure I thought. Doesn't mean Yelp has to do the same ridiculous fee structure.

    They can probably find a way to make it work if they come to the table with an open mind rather than forcing a square peg into a triangular hole, but it doesn't mean they'll be able to figure it out before the price plummets and the brand diminishes. The thought that they will be able to have a growth company without ensuring businesses are put in a positive light (by reducing the abuse I noted above) is head scratching.

    We'll see if they can make me look foolish by making it work without big changes.
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yelp in tailspin, down 20% as analysts downgrade en masse [View news story]
    The earnings beat wasn't as big as many wanted to warrant such a high PE ratio.

    If you're going to allow abusive reviews from customers who just want to criticize to feel powerful, anonymously, you're not going to get businesses rushing to spend money with Yelp. Over time, this concept should be fully understood if they don't change their methods. Until they have a better system in place, I do not see Yelp with a long-term plan that makes sense, but they do have a massive user base that should give them ample time to find a way to monetize it better.

    One improved system if if they can find a way to show and verify whether the customer criticizing actually contacted the business in advance. Most reviews that criticize with 1-2 star reviews never contacted the business to allow them a chance to remedy it...they went straight to Yelp to attack the business anonymously. That makes the review fairly useless yet very damaging. Fix that, and more positive reviews should flood the system therefore more businesses willing to advertise because they will be seen in a good light.

    The real reviews that are worthwhile, for a bad experience, are the ones that gave the business a chance to remedy it. Those are valuable.

    Until then, Yelp will need to find a way a way to fix the attrition rate as I expect business attrition to grow faster over time (still too early though) as it will become harder to get a business back after they lost it once.

    Maybe they'll need to force consumers to buy a membership to be able to review to offset relying on businesses solely for their monetary gain.
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ring Energy, Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Year End 2014 Operations Update [View article]
    Key part here: "We have the benefit of a strong balance sheet with no debt, an unused credit facility and positive cash flow. Additionally, because of current commodity prices, we have begun to see an increase in the number of acquisition opportunities and believe this will continue during this volatile time. We will continue to grow this Company, whether organically or through acquisition or both and are postured to react immediately should the opportunity arise. "
    Jan 29, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC is "throwing in the towel" - SocGen [View news story]
    Stone Fox,

    The one thing I love about the stock market is the downside to what happened to me today, ironically.

    I love that when you are wrong, you get punished, no question about it. Reality hits hard....teaches you a lesson fast. So while I took a whooping for my worst trade of the year, I'm smiling because I see opportunity in the overdone panic that everyone else is getting caught up in.

    Panic is what breeds opportunity. It's too early to jump in yet....but in time, history will prove my words to be true that a recovery will happen as those who are abandoning the pool will flood back in some day for a massive energy rally/recovery.

    Hard to see it today, but it will happen when the dust settles and that is when a lot of money will be made....I intend on being on the right side of that trade.
    Nov 28, 2014. 04:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC is "throwing in the towel" - SocGen [View news story]
    OM, great link for the oil price shale breakeven....thanks
    Nov 27, 2014. 10:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC is "throwing in the towel" - SocGen [View news story]
    Nobody expected OPEC to cut this soon....especially with Russia still standing tall throughout all of this.

    This sounds a bit overly fear driven....this sounds like blood in the streets to me.....a good sign for future profits to be made.
    Nov 27, 2014. 11:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small-Cap Dejour Energy: Newly-Forged Revenue Streams Could Triple Stock Price [View instapost]
    I'll have to find it and watch it to see what his reasoning is. Saudi seems intent on the long-haul, or at least claiming that position, and this is likely done for political reasons.

    If that is the case, once again, I would have to see Dicker is taking that into consideration.

    In regard to DEJ, Dejour will likely need a capital infusion (dilution most likely) if oil prices stay low for for a sustained period of time because it's unlikely anyone priced this oil drop into their financial models. The hope is that most of the pain is already priced in. When DEJ starts to go green as oil prices still fall, that's a sign it's finally leveling off.

    Even Dicker admits, via twitter, you can't hedge for this type of drop.
    Oct 15, 2014. 02:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small-Cap Dejour Energy: Newly-Forged Revenue Streams Could Triple Stock Price [View instapost]
    Dicker's projection is useless because it's based on Iraq and Saudi trumps that, unless I'm reading the wrong article as his article was written in June.

    If Saudi is the reason the prices are going down and they have no problem keeping prices at this range (for political reasons?) for up to 2 years (as they claim), then Dicker's article doesn't factor that new information in therefore it no longer applies to our current situation. Projection articles don't work unless they accurately take into consideration the new information.

    I agree with his thought process, but the reason for oil falling is a driver nobody predicted, therefore it can be tossed aside now. If you don't factor in the new information, you're basing it off old information. So, if you're right, it's out of luck, not true analysis and statistics.

    I prefer to be wrong on that and oil does go higher due to my preference towards energy stocks. It is dependent on politics I fear, which is an extremely tough driver to predict when trying to analyze risk/reward in stocks.
    Oct 13, 2014. 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Saudi prepared to let oil prices stay low [View news story]
    t, this likely has to do with Russia to a certain degree....another sanction against Russia basically. In other news, Russia has just pulled it's troops from the Ukraine border, but that has not been confirmed yet by NATO.

    I'm willing to bet there is at least a fair chance the two events are more closely related than many think.
    Oct 13, 2014. 03:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small-Cap Dejour Energy: Newly-Forged Revenue Streams Could Triple Stock Price [View instapost]
    Continued low oil prices will harm the financial model of small cap oil companies. Some will go out of business if the prices stay low for too long or need multiple capital infusions.

    I'm long DEJ, but it's going to be a tough ride if oil prices keep falling for a lengthy amount of time. Oil falling may be more political than anything as the driver behind the fall. That means if it is political, it's staying power at lower prices might increase which would harm these companies. Time will tell.
    Oct 13, 2014. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Saudi prepared to let oil prices stay low [View news story]
    Leo, maybe they want to throw cheap money at China, or maybe they want to harm the many countries that it hurts. Many oil producing countries need oil at a higher level than 80 to make a profit. Iran, if I remember correctly, has the highest breakeven point of all the oil producing countries.

    I'm leaning towards they are trying to harm specific countries for political reasons, not trying to help China. Some times people benefit from others misfortunes.
    Oct 13, 2014. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GrubHub higher following bullish JMP launch [View news story]
    GH makes a very good percentage off restaurant sales, my restaurant uses them. I still don't understand why consumers use GH instead of going direct to the restaurant as most restaurants already have their own online ordering/phone ordering app, but they continue to get new customers, so we need to continue to use them else we miss out on a certain user base we might not get.

    Customer service isn't bad either for an organization this size.
    Oct 8, 2014. 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. budget deficit narrows in July [View news story]
    If inflation takes care of any problem, it leaves other problems behind. It always has, but now the problems are more prevalent as opportunities to make a growing income for those who didn't inherit wealth are significantly less and continuing down that path making matters worse. Problems don't take care of itself. That's not only illogical, but extremely dangerous to believe such a thing.

    Buying power doesn't increase with inflation, the opposite comes true unless you can increase your income. Fewer people are able to increase their income these days. You must outrun inflation (a system of capturing more of the money then the next person if you want your buying power to increase) if you want buying power to increase, which is on a case by case basis, which means there will ultimately be more "losers" than "winners" when it's all said and done. Income inequality becomes a bigger problem this way.

    The weak get weaker and the strong get stronger. More problems are created, not less.

    We should have a surplus by now. If you continue to operate in the red, there will be an end game to it. The only real question is when. Politicians have an innate ability to delay the inevitable just a little bit longer.
    Aug 13, 2014. 02:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. budget deficit narrows in July [View news story]
    With interest rates as low as they are, no reason Govt Officials shouldn't have us at a surplus by now. Unacceptable. When interest rates return to normal, we'll see what the REAL deficit is.
    Aug 12, 2014. 03:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penny stock trade booms [View news story]
    "I like things below three cents, because of the upside potential, and it limits the downside," says penny stock trader Steve Templeton, who recently used his winnings on unlisted medical marijuana stocks to finance a move to Tennessee from California."

    Quite possibly the dumbest statement possible and very dangerous if novice investors listen to this clown. I rarely get upset, but this is very dangerous to young traders.

    Limit downside? It's called dilution until your holdings are non-existent and/or a shell of a company dies because it never had a chance to begin with. Hopefully he stated all of those risks and SA simply took a small excerpt making SA to blame, but this is an incredibly ignorant statement even with those risks stated upfront.
    May 23, 2014. 02:44 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment