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Michael Kudrna  

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  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    Mark, you make good points, but remember this is the IPO boom (or bubble....whatever your perception is). Companies going IPO to get "filthy" rich and almost all fall well below IPO prices shortly thereafter....Groupon is just one of many. Companies like Facebook are the exception to the rule as they fell then rose above IPO prices.

    That's why I never do an IPO as an investment....just a trade.
    Jul 17, 2015. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    There is too little info to judge right now whether it's good or bad. A lot of unanswered questions on how this will integrate into their own system, but I'd imagine they have a strategy for this and it's not just a purchase for no reason. Hopefully more details come out how this integrates and how it will help them expand faster....which I'd guess is the motive behind the purchase as OrderUp is nationwide.

    I don't know the size of OrderUp and how much sales they do nationwide, but pending how much it cost them to purchase, they just increased their sales and profit margin most likely with this purchase. That's a good thing for shareholders.
    Jul 16, 2015. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    It's an interesting acquisition. It seems Orderup has no chicago presence and the system appears different than Groupons system. So I'm not sure if they already know how to sync the 2 up or not. It also seems they are using OrderUp to expand to other cities faster?

    I wish the PR had more detail
    Jul 16, 2015. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    Pedro,

    The best stocks are the ones you already sold for a profit, per James RevShark Deporre. I am a firm believer in that quote. While you may have closed it early, it's not a profit until you take it. Consider it an insurance payment to close out early to protect profit and reopen the position at a slightly higher cost once your thesis is confirmed. No harm in that, just playing the odds tight. I'm looking to re-enter my short position as well after riding DTO from buys as low as 60 and selling as high as 83, per my StockTalks

    Blue,

    Yes REI does have a higher PE on paper, but I believe it has a good chance of beating expectations as I feel it may prove to be conservative numbers. I still want to see what happens with Q2 as now they will have some debt on their balance sheet after this acquisition as the money they raised at 11.50 only covered the majority of the acquisition, not the entirety of it.

    GST needs nat gas prices to breakout higher....if/when that happens, GST will have a very strong foundation.

    Again, as a disclaimer, no need to rush to buy any though...Q2 will show more clarity on where the future winners will be.

    Thanks both for the quality commentary going on here...always a benefit
    Jul 13, 2015. 07:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    It's mostly about GRUB while ignoring new services that GRUB has with higher margins like Restaurants on the Run that is, on average, 2-3 times higher margin than GRUB's regular service.

    Either way, it's irrelevant as it's about GRUB and we're focused on GRPN. As I stated, GRUB can easily be argued to be overvalued, but it's hard to say GRPN is overvalued at these levels.
    Jul 11, 2015. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    Technically, it would attract some more traders if we can get over $5 (especially about the 5.25 area) and they notice it on their trading radars.....an influx of traders going long could force shorts to cover propelling this very high in the short-term. Having a lot of shorts is good and bad....it's been bad for a while, but it can turn out good if they are all scared into covering at once.
    Jul 10, 2015. 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    possibly, just takes one more market down day to lose all the gains today though. I think 4.80 is safe area for now, good support when I watched the tape. Over $5 would start getting me more bullish about trading it/pressing on the way up. $5 showing to be some work to get over.
    Jul 9, 2015. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    it's very hard to create a good review system unless you have mass quantity of people. Facebook has a leg up because they have such a higher user base that many people can drown out the abusive ones for more fair and accurate ratings.

    Due to human nature, abusive reviews will happen often when they are given full anonymity without repercussion (toxic disinhibition). Groupon should be careful with an anonymous review system as it could burn bridges aka Yelp's problem. Reviews don't make money unless they become an advertising site with it...then it becomes trickier because the more attention it receives, the more abusive reviews that they must combat. Groupon To Go should focus on driving revenue via getting orders to their customers (businesses), not focus on creating a review site that will create multiple more problems to deal with.

    Right now, they are not even properly focusing on Groupon To Go, so hard to say they should focus on anything but driving sales....meaning they need to make this platform known and still, I think I'm about one of the only ones who talk about this system and it's potential. I had no intention of writing this article until I got fed up that many shareholders are voicing their opinion online and feeling betrayed by Groupon....so I needed to give them a better vision than listening to conspiracy theories online. This company has $1 billion in cash on the sidelines, that's not pocket change. If you can't create success with a billion dollars on the sidelines and no debt, you must intentionally want to fail.

    I should be getting stock compensation like the rest of them (clearly I'm being facetious, I don't get compensated by companies to write articles).
    Jul 9, 2015. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    1) Groupon to Go is the same as placing orders via GrubHub. It is currently only active in Chicago (and suburbs) as far as I know. The original plan (which may not be accurate at all based on the execution level of this project) was to launch it in Chicago then 3 months later, launch it in every major city. Based on the way it's going, I would be pleasantly shocked to see that take place in such a short period of time.

    2) No, Groupon hasn't done any meaningful advertising of the service despite it supposedly being in full launch mode for over a week now and last I checked, they don't even have a link on the main page yet (you have to click around a lot to find it)....hence the article.
    Jul 8, 2015. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    what was the volume premarket? last I checked, it was low making it meaningless
    Jul 7, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    agreed...I tend to play with smaller caps for bigger moves on trades, but I'm reluctant to touch any right now. GST is a fav, but I smell a share offering around the corner even though they reduced CAPEX significantly.

    REI is on my radar though for a longer-term trade and they do claim they are profitable at $50 a barrel, but again no rush to buy. They recently did a share offering at 11.50 to make an acquisition, currently trading well below that price now.
    Jul 6, 2015. 11:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    That's a bold statement and I'm interested to see how that plays out. I think we can get into the upper 40's, but I see speculators holding it up again.

    I may reevaluate after Q2 earnings are released....I'm not touching companies until after Q2 is released.
    Jul 6, 2015. 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    my target was 50, but with the momentum, we could see extremes push it below 50.
    Jul 6, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    The day you actually make a good point, the day you don't twist someones words, the day you become an adult without the need for childish attacks is the day I'll treat you like a big boy.

    Until then, time is valuable and it won't be wasted on your petty nonsense.
    Jul 3, 2015. 03:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    Correct, but that is today's new IPO's. Many new IPO's do the same thing which devalues their long-term value, but it also takes time to destroy the share structure enough with such a compensation package.

    I think Cooperman being in this stock is a positive sign (although I'm not sure if he is still in it as last I checked it was back in Q1 for his latest holdings). Cooperman is a great investor to piggyback off of, he's very very intelligent.

    So while I agree, it's also common place these days to compensate via stock, especially with apps/tech products. That is why we need something positive for the future to offset the compensation via stock. It is to their benefit to drive the stock higher as they can sell at a higher price for more money, but either way, they will be getting a great deal of compensation anyway.

    The short squeeze on this one could be bigger than most anticipate....but we'll need a good story to turn the tables on the bears hence this article.
    Jul 3, 2015. 12:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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