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Michael Kudrna

 
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  • Small-Cap Dejour Energy: Newly-Forged Revenue Streams Could Triple Stock Price [View instapost]
    I'll have to find it and watch it to see what his reasoning is. Saudi seems intent on the long-haul, or at least claiming that position, and this is likely done for political reasons.

    If that is the case, once again, I would have to see Dicker is taking that into consideration.

    In regard to DEJ, Dejour will likely need a capital infusion (dilution most likely) if oil prices stay low for for a sustained period of time because it's unlikely anyone priced this oil drop into their financial models. The hope is that most of the pain is already priced in. When DEJ starts to go green as oil prices still fall, that's a sign it's finally leveling off.

    Even Dicker admits, via twitter, you can't hedge for this type of drop.
    Oct 15 02:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small-Cap Dejour Energy: Newly-Forged Revenue Streams Could Triple Stock Price [View instapost]
    Dicker's projection is useless because it's based on Iraq and Saudi trumps that, unless I'm reading the wrong article as his article was written in June.

    If Saudi is the reason the prices are going down and they have no problem keeping prices at this range (for political reasons?) for up to 2 years (as they claim), then Dicker's article doesn't factor that new information in therefore it no longer applies to our current situation. Projection articles don't work unless they accurately take into consideration the new information.

    I agree with his thought process, but the reason for oil falling is a driver nobody predicted, therefore it can be tossed aside now. If you don't factor in the new information, you're basing it off old information. So, if you're right, it's out of luck, not true analysis and statistics.

    I prefer to be wrong on that and oil does go higher due to my preference towards energy stocks. It is dependent on politics I fear, which is an extremely tough driver to predict when trying to analyze risk/reward in stocks.
    Oct 13 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Saudi prepared to let oil prices stay low [View news story]
    t, this likely has to do with Russia to a certain degree....another sanction against Russia basically. In other news, Russia has just pulled it's troops from the Ukraine border, but that has not been confirmed yet by NATO.

    I'm willing to bet there is at least a fair chance the two events are more closely related than many think.
    Oct 13 03:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small-Cap Dejour Energy: Newly-Forged Revenue Streams Could Triple Stock Price [View instapost]
    Continued low oil prices will harm the financial model of small cap oil companies. Some will go out of business if the prices stay low for too long or need multiple capital infusions.

    I'm long DEJ, but it's going to be a tough ride if oil prices keep falling for a lengthy amount of time. Oil falling may be more political than anything as the driver behind the fall. That means if it is political, it's staying power at lower prices might increase which would harm these companies. Time will tell.
    Oct 13 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Saudi prepared to let oil prices stay low [View news story]
    Leo, maybe they want to throw cheap money at China, or maybe they want to harm the many countries that it hurts. Many oil producing countries need oil at a higher level than 80 to make a profit. Iran, if I remember correctly, has the highest breakeven point of all the oil producing countries.

    I'm leaning towards they are trying to harm specific countries for political reasons, not trying to help China. Some times people benefit from others misfortunes.
    Oct 13 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GrubHub higher following bullish JMP launch [View news story]
    GH makes a very good percentage off restaurant sales, my restaurant uses them. I still don't understand why consumers use GH instead of going direct to the restaurant as most restaurants already have their own online ordering/phone ordering app, but they continue to get new customers, so we need to continue to use them else we miss out on a certain user base we might not get.

    Customer service isn't bad either for an organization this size.
    Oct 8 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. budget deficit narrows in July [View news story]
    If inflation takes care of any problem, it leaves other problems behind. It always has, but now the problems are more prevalent as opportunities to make a growing income for those who didn't inherit wealth are significantly less and continuing down that path making matters worse. Problems don't take care of itself. That's not only illogical, but extremely dangerous to believe such a thing.

    Buying power doesn't increase with inflation, the opposite comes true unless you can increase your income. Fewer people are able to increase their income these days. You must outrun inflation (a system of capturing more of the money then the next person if you want your buying power to increase) if you want buying power to increase, which is on a case by case basis, which means there will ultimately be more "losers" than "winners" when it's all said and done. Income inequality becomes a bigger problem this way.

    The weak get weaker and the strong get stronger. More problems are created, not less.

    We should have a surplus by now. If you continue to operate in the red, there will be an end game to it. The only real question is when. Politicians have an innate ability to delay the inevitable just a little bit longer.
    Aug 13 02:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. budget deficit narrows in July [View news story]
    With interest rates as low as they are, no reason Govt Officials shouldn't have us at a surplus by now. Unacceptable. When interest rates return to normal, we'll see what the REAL deficit is.
    Aug 12 03:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penny stock trade booms [View news story]
    "I like things below three cents, because of the upside potential, and it limits the downside," says penny stock trader Steve Templeton, who recently used his winnings on unlisted medical marijuana stocks to finance a move to Tennessee from California."

    Quite possibly the dumbest statement possible and very dangerous if novice investors listen to this clown. I rarely get upset, but this is very dangerous to young traders.

    Limit downside? It's called dilution until your holdings are non-existent and/or a shell of a company dies because it never had a chance to begin with. Hopefully he stated all of those risks and SA simply took a small excerpt making SA to blame, but this is an incredibly ignorant statement even with those risks stated upfront.
    May 23 02:44 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obamacare signs up 8M [View news story]
    About 50% or so of Twitter users never posted once or even filled out their profile....are they really Twitter users or is the total number that includes them really useful at all?

    Is that the same standards used for the 8 million?
    Apr 18 10:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The House passes the Senate's fiscal cliff bill, 257-167. It now heads to the president for signature. (what's in the deal[View news story]
    TVP:

    Unfortunately the economists are claiming they are the Mathematicians and economists are the same as meteorologists. They screw up all the time, one says rain, one says sun, they continue to claim expertise AND still have a job after they screw up.

    They are akin to the stock trader that made one single good call in his career that he will remind you of every single day while not keeping track of the 99% of bad calls he made that are swept under the rug.
    Jan 3 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The House passes the Senate's fiscal cliff bill, 257-167. It now heads to the president for signature. (what's in the deal[View news story]
    bbrady:

    If we had a 300 billion dollar deficit....increasing taxes is a very reasonable request. You know that the taxes will be used to fix that small hole. Increasing taxes becomes a very logical solution when the deficit is realistically manageable.

    However, we average a 1.3 to 1.6 trillion dollar deficit which is manipulated lower due to record low interest rates making our interest payments appear lower than they will be in the near future (can't get rates low forever). This requires immediate and strong action to remedy! No business, I REPEAT, not one single business could survive with such fundamentals. Not one single bank would entertain such an idea of loaning money to a financial structure like this...but because we are the Reserve Currency, we found a bank willing to give us money so we can feed the beast more and more. That may not be the case in 10-15 years as other countries would prefer we lose our Reserve status. Just wait until our bond market starts to dictate our grim future because we are NOT ACTING now! Then the real cuts will happen...and those will be unmerciful. All because we did not act like adults right now, take our medicine today, put us in a short-term recession and bounce out of it with a vengeance fixing the path we are on and brightening our future.

    To demand that anyone pay more money on a 1.3 to 1.6 (technically higher) trillion dollar deficit resembles a blind dictatorship. To demand any citizen pay more money into a deficit that is exactly the same as a "black hole" where the money will NOT be useful and will NOT actually fix the deficit is illogical and frankly morally wrong. This comes from someone who is not a Repub, but I lean more and more to that side on this issue as these smoke and mirror discussions happen (tax the rich = save america) are the discussion of lemmings.
    Jan 3 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The House passes the Senate's fiscal cliff bill, 257-167. It now heads to the president for signature. (what's in the deal[View news story]
    Canada has similar issues in 90's. They cut spending $7 to $1 tax increase and grew jobs during the dotcom bust. They are now fiscally responsible and able to take on whatever problems come their way without an already burdened fundamentals.

    The US on the other hand, does not balance the budget and instead has a fiscal cliff deal of over $43 in tax increases to every $1 in spending cuts.

    Logical....very logical.
    Jan 2 02:06 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gastar Exploration Provides Update on Results of 2012 Operations [View article]
    Very positive news, but lawsuit against GST will continue to be a significant overhang on the stock for many months to come without updates towards a dismissal.

    If lawsuit is dismissed, stock could double very fast. That is a big "if" though and not something I make gambles on.
    Dec 19 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A new White House report warns that massive across-the-board spending cuts at the start of the new year would be "deeply destructive" to core government responsibilities and especially the military. But Pres. Obama's own defense budget calls for big cuts, and Bob Woodward's new book suggests the Administration instigated the idea of sequestration to gain political ground[View news story]
    Massive cuts? What genius confused "Massive" with "Negligible"?
    Sep 15 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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