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Michael Kudrna  

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  • Groupon lower following bearish Cowen coverage [View news story]
    @anthony, it's an "interesting" time chosen that when the shorts start losing control of the stock in the short-term that he comes out of left field initiating coverage? Shorts are indebted to him.
    Oct 8, 2015. 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon lower following bearish Cowen coverage [View news story]
    I can personally tell Kopelman, from my own restaurant, that Groupon (in a highly competitive chicagoland market) is the #2 online ordering system with us "overnight." They have already beat out the other platforms that have been here for a while except GH, for obvious reasons since they are the leader and do a great job. GH is number #1...and we are a very high volume GH vendor. So for Groupon to already be at #2 is nothing short of impressive on where they can go with this. Will they be rich overnight? No, but they are developing a platform that actually benefits the restaurants/vendors more than the competitors. GH is too structured, which in many ways that is good, but in many ways that means they lose out on business because they can't work with the vendor on a deeper level to fulfill their needs and goals. Groupon is going that route....which I'm very happy about it.

    Groupon even allows restaurants to integrate their own specials into the Online Ordering system with far more valuable promotion/marketing than GH allows. GH promotes GH only. Groupon is putting in platforms to promote both the restaurant and Groupon. This is the long-term relationship that they will build....companies like Yelp destroy relationships with vendors and harm them.

    I'm a fan of GH, but Groupon has many benefits to their platform. You will absolutely see increased customer metrics as they fill out their system nationwide.
    Oct 8, 2015. 11:34 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axcelis up 5.9% after announcing Purion M orders, reiterating guidance [View news story]
    Solid "under the radar" company that would be flying higher if the overall market wasn't dragging everything down
    Sep 29, 2015. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon: From A Money-Losing Growth Play To A Slow-Growth Cash Cow? [View article]
    Based on only using those 2 pieces of information you have, the odds of anyone accurately predicting fraud with any certainty is about the same as accurately predicting the next lottery numbers.

    You are using too little information to conclude such a conspiracy theory conclusion with any certainty. The method of your logic is how easily conspiracy theories are created. You would need more research and more data points inputted to conclude Armageddon with any certainty. That doesn't mean Armageddon isn't true....but you're not using enough data points to conclude anything but a stab in the dark.

    1 + 1 + ? + ? + ? + ? + ? = ?
    Sep 23, 2015. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon to cut jobs in restructuring [View news story]
    So you want to cut significantly more than 10% labor "overnight" and improve customer service at the same time? You don't want them to digest a 10% cut first, you want them to make a reckless mass layoff yet promise that the business will improve immediately in the same breath?
    Sep 22, 2015. 01:43 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Selling Groupon - Are You? [View article]
    The only strong reason to short this right now is the overall market direction. If the overall market firms up, which I believe will over the next month, then we need only worry about meeting expectations for next earnings, which are already revised lower.

    Once again, 1 billion in cash, new systems in place like Groupon To Go, which is already the 2nd best online ordering at my restaurant (excluding my own online ordering of course) with GrubHub still far ahead of it though. Groupon To Go has already beat out all other ordering companies almost overnight. This will help customer metrics first, then if they can continue to grow quantity, will help with profit. They are off to a good start though, but once again, I feel they need to improve their free marketing angles and create some buzz by being more edgy.

    Still a solid long-term investment at these levels unless doomsday predictions are accurate and the market is on the verge of a total collapse....which I'm not a believer in anytime soon.
    Sep 22, 2015. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Knives Are Out For GrubHub [View article]
    Market still young and undeveloped, plenty of room to grab market share before being saturated. Overall market will grow exponentially as the younger generation moves towards ordering via technology
    Sep 10, 2015. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon launches food delivery service, reportedly preps $50 Fire tablet [View news story]
    The market is still undeveloped. The market for this will grow exponentially over the years. Plenty of room still for all these companies to take a fair share before consolidation is necessary. Seamless and GrubHub were too early to the market, now we've reached the time when the market will grow much faster leaving plenty of share for everyone to capture before it is saturated.
    Sep 8, 2015. 09:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    please advise when you're fully closed on those shorts.

    I have no position long or short, but it's easier for me to go long oil (not companies, just crude prices) than it is to start a short position right now. However, until I see an edge, I don't jump I'm back in this comment section attempting to find that "edge."

    How do you feel about recent headlines/stories affecting any long/short thesis you may have had?
    Sep 2, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    anyone starting to nibble long oil at all?
    Sep 1, 2015. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Knives Are Out For GrubHub [View article]
    read my article on Groupon a month ago or so, which already praises GrubHub in it.

    The end game isn't here yet, but over time, restaurants will lose margin if they can't keep customers ordering direct from them. That's a net loss for successful restaurants. Dying restaurants will be helped for a while, but they will die off. Most new restaurants die in a year when they realize the industry is arguably the hardest industry to operate, then a new one pops up with the same fate.

    I haven't the time at the moment to detail much more, but per GH rep, we were the highest vol GH restaurant in a 5 mile radius per 2014 numbers. My numbers have actually doubled this year, but GH keeps their data private now so I'm unable to know how I stack up.

    GH is a great little service for us, but you must be a successful restaurant for it to work as dying restaurants don't have the proper margin to have a successful relationship with GH. If I can not keep my customers ordering direct to me and instead they prefer to order from me via GH, I now lose margin.

    While it may not be the end of the world, time will tell, it's still potentially a net loss over time if customers stop ordering from me direct for third party systems.
    Aug 20, 2015. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Knives Are Out For GrubHub [View article]
    You'd likely have much different opinions if you were actually a restaurant owner, which is why I disagree with most everything you said. A restaurant owner can see the trends and obtain research data much easier than a single customer can.

    However in the same breath, I disagree with the author and think the competition isn't really that threatening at the moment as the market itself is still growing every single day as users convert from traditional methods to more efficient methods as well as GH has far from saturated the market. Competition will only help increase the total market share and foster more innovation for efficiency that will likely help GH rather than hurt it anytime soon.

    I believe grocery stores and restaurants will be the net losers in many of these situations.
    Aug 20, 2015. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    I did not re-establish my position in DTO after we reached $50 crude and I'm kicking myself for it as I left a lot of money on the table that would have been nice to rake in, in retrospect.

    Hopefully we can keep this comment section going. I fear you may be right and it will take a long time before going long again, but I'm hoping if anyone changes their opinion on when to go long that we update this section (nice to have the "new" comments pop up when it's quality market commentary like this article has brought).

    Anything can happen between now and the next 12 months, but it's not looking good for longs right now. I see no reason to take the risk going long for anything more than a day trade bounce and selling before close.
    Aug 19, 2015. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Knives Are Out For GrubHub [View article]
    Are you a restaurant owner?
    Aug 19, 2015. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Knives Are Out For GrubHub [View article]
    Can you explain how you are coming to those beliefs/opinions?
    Aug 19, 2015. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment