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Michael Kudrna  

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  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    please advise when you're fully closed on those shorts.

    I have no position long or short, but it's easier for me to go long oil (not companies, just crude prices) than it is to start a short position right now. However, until I see an edge, I don't jump in....so I'm back in this comment section attempting to find that "edge."

    How do you feel about recent headlines/stories affecting any long/short thesis you may have had?
    Sep 2, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    anyone starting to nibble long oil at all?
    Sep 1, 2015. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Knives Are Out For GrubHub [View article]
    read my article on Groupon a month ago or so, which already praises GrubHub in it.

    The end game isn't here yet, but over time, restaurants will lose margin if they can't keep customers ordering direct from them. That's a net loss for successful restaurants. Dying restaurants will be helped for a while, but they will die off. Most new restaurants die in a year when they realize the industry is arguably the hardest industry to operate, then a new one pops up with the same fate.

    I haven't the time at the moment to detail much more, but per GH rep, we were the highest vol GH restaurant in a 5 mile radius per 2014 numbers. My numbers have actually doubled this year, but GH keeps their data private now so I'm unable to know how I stack up.

    GH is a great little service for us, but you must be a successful restaurant for it to work as dying restaurants don't have the proper margin to have a successful relationship with GH. If I can not keep my customers ordering direct to me and instead they prefer to order from me via GH, I now lose margin.

    While it may not be the end of the world, time will tell, it's still potentially a net loss over time if customers stop ordering from me direct for third party systems.
    Aug 20, 2015. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Knives Are Out For GrubHub [View article]
    You'd likely have much different opinions if you were actually a restaurant owner, which is why I disagree with most everything you said. A restaurant owner can see the trends and obtain research data much easier than a single customer can.

    However in the same breath, I disagree with the author and think the competition isn't really that threatening at the moment as the market itself is still growing every single day as users convert from traditional methods to more efficient methods as well as GH has far from saturated the market. Competition will only help increase the total market share and foster more innovation for efficiency that will likely help GH rather than hurt it anytime soon.

    I believe grocery stores and restaurants will be the net losers in many of these situations.
    Aug 20, 2015. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    I did not re-establish my position in DTO after we reached $50 crude and I'm kicking myself for it as I left a lot of money on the table that would have been nice to rake in, in retrospect.

    Hopefully we can keep this comment section going. I fear you may be right and it will take a long time before going long again, but I'm hoping if anyone changes their opinion on when to go long that we update this section (nice to have the "new" comments pop up when it's quality market commentary like this article has brought).

    Anything can happen between now and the next 12 months, but it's not looking good for longs right now. I see no reason to take the risk going long for anything more than a day trade bounce and selling before close.
    Aug 19, 2015. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Knives Are Out For GrubHub [View article]
    Are you a restaurant owner?
    Aug 19, 2015. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Knives Are Out For GrubHub [View article]
    Can you explain how you are coming to those beliefs/opinions?
    Aug 19, 2015. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Prices Are Going To Fall: The Fundamentals Will Trump Financial Speculation [View article]
    exactly blueice, that is why I have no positions in any long oil plays at the moment. After seeing earnings, I foresee GST diluting within 6 months and diluting at $1 is very dangerous.

    By the way, great call on oil, both you and Almeida! I thought inventory draws would have given the bulls a little more strength than it turned out happening as my call of 50 was way too high of a drop.
    Aug 19, 2015. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Knives Are Out For GrubHub [View article]
    Technically speaking, grocery stores are competition to GrubHub because they sell a solution to meals just like GrubHub does, restaurants do, etc.... I do get what you're saying though.

    If 100 people are going to eat, all 100 people are the market, if 80 of them go to a grocery store and 10 to go GrubHub and 10 to go a restaurant (regardless if that restaurant is on GH), you can "technically" argue that GH only has 10% of the total market share.
    Aug 19, 2015. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vision Groupon Fails To Sell You [View article]
    I think Uber will find it hard to classify it's drivers as independent contractors as time goes on which will likely ruin it's business model and they will have to find a way to adapt from that major cost change. I haven't kept up with the news stories on this though, so if anyone has color to add, I'd like to read it.

    Dominos used to promise 30 min or it's free and had to remove that due to legalities around accidents.

    While Uber is doing many things right and they have a chance to definitely made a major dent in this market segment, I'm skeptical of them being able to sustain and execute....great marketing though, I wish Groupon had common sense marketing like them. The conservative approach Groupon takes to marketing is head scratching to me. They are in a business segment that they can be more trendy/edgy to get attention. Not every industry has such a luxury, but they do.
    Aug 19, 2015. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Knives Are Out For GrubHub [View article]
    Do you think GRUB had 100% of the market share.

    If not, what percentage do they have?

    I believe it's as low as 20% and that they are the leader meaning it's far from saturated and that as time goes on, more people will convert from phone customers and walk-in customers to online ordering customers.

    That means even if GRUB has more competitors, the market is far from saturated so more competitors can survive in this market.

    Frankly, I think the losers will be the restaurants because GRUB and others will be able to provide better online platforms than restaurants can provide themselves...so ultimately some will leave restaurants platforms for third party platforms. This will mean restaurants like mine will have to create better incentives to stay with me rather than go to a third party platform.
    Aug 18, 2015. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Knives Are Out For GrubHub [View article]
    It would potentially result in faster delivery times due to restaurants not always being full staffed due to increasing cost of labor and rollercoaster sales trends throughout the day and week. The middleman is a dedicated middleman to the delivery therefore they have a competitive focus on one task that could increase delivery times if it's true that the restaurant is seeking to maximize sales per employee instead of maximize customer service regardless of sales.
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Is A Risky Short: A Look At The Fundamentals Of Groupon, GrubHub And Yelp [View article]
    offset by buybacks
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Groupon Can Soar Like Priceline.com [View article]
    As the stock falls and short interest increases, think of it like a rubberband being pulled back. The more it falls, the higher the short interest, the stronger the rubberband will fly once it's released.

    If this was a dying company, the shorts could break the rubberband, but unless something dramatically changes, it's just a matter of time (possibly months still) before the rubberband is released.

    Set your alerts, read your news articles to stay informed, but until your alerts go off, don't spend your time watching it every second of every trading day hoping for some jedi mind trick to work if you're long. It'll only frustrate you. Otherwise, dabble in the dark side and wait until stronger signs of an imminent reversal are about to happen. It all depends on your strategy and timeframe.
    Aug 15, 2015. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Groupon Can Soar Like Priceline.com [View article]
    Groupon To Go isn't a coupon/deal. It's just like GrubHub.

    So far, it's been great. Increase in sales and they do the marketing of it for me.
    Aug 14, 2015. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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