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Michael L. Boyer  

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  • Profit From Predictably Irrational Companies  [View instapost]
    Cramer nails the Denny's story (word is out now).. and the remodel ambience premium... says he think it is early in the turn (around). Also, cites management, buy backs, increased guidance, low oil price play.
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From Predictably Irrational Companies  [View instapost]
    And everyone has probably heard of the very high end, well appointed Denny's in Manhattan:

    Author (Cooper) here asks if people are crazy--paying up to $300 for a meal at Denny's:


    The answer: yes, they are irrational. Predictably so.

    (Still Long DENN, since 2-3 bucks)
    Oct 15, 2014. 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From Predictably Irrational Companies  [View instapost]
    And Coke again into Keurig (build-a-beverage, Ikea effect??). . .
    May 13, 2014. 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denny's CEO Discusses Q1 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Like the remodel theme (see my Instablog on Predictably Irrational and ambience premium); this should continue a few more years as a top priority; the 18 million share repurchased to date is a good use of free cash; they have some good explanations on the revenue; the market seems to like the picture this AM. As they shore up the existing locations (remodel/upgraded) and boost their stock price and earnings, expanding into more key areas could be the focus (campus, highways/truck stops/travel center, new cities, etc)
    Apr 29, 2014. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From Predictably Irrational Companies  [View instapost]
    And MCD harnessing power of "free" with their coffee, one of the most powerful (and often expensive--for customers) pricing promotions...
    Mar 31, 2014. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From Predictably Irrational Companies  [View instapost]
    And cnbc follows the new MCD move to "build a burger" here:

    Both the build a burger and build a bear models tap customization without meaningful labor (other than mental choice) infused.

    That said, adding condiments or pushing buttons may be getting close; next research for Ariely: how much labor is required to get Ikea Effect (steps, effort, minutes, etc).
    Feb 27, 2014. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviews You Can Use: Third-Party Product Reviews And Stock Price [View article]
    This thesis still appears valid in the auto context with Tesla Model S getting top CR rating and a concomitant stock boost.
    Feb 26, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denny's Management Discusses Q3 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Lots about the remodel. I like this in terms of customer satisfaction, brand building, loyalty and--a key we sometimes forget--the experience. Food and service are key, but drab carpet, early 90's decor, shaky booths, funny smells, peeling paint, scary restrooms--all can downgrade even the best food or service. It is a key part of the product/service; the place in the marketing mix.

    When you think about Schultz's (3rd place mantra for SBUX), I can't help thinking Denny's was the original 3rd place--decades before Chuck even happened upon the Mermaid in Seattle.

    And, we probably have much more in common with Hemingway's classic portrayal of a place people can go--between home and work and escape both practical and existential problems--a clean, well lighted place.
    Oct 29, 2013. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble's Unsustainable Dividend Growth: Something Has To Give [View article]
    Hi Notagamble, Josh, etc: examine the series of spin-offs of this former strong brand owner in food/coffee. No more food/coffee for PG.

    PG went for higher margins in personal/household care (maybe less raw ingredient volatility with coffee, especially). Their core competency is under your bathroom and kitchen sink....

    On "how" to "create value note my links above that explain their recent tax free exchange (too complex to detail in comments. PG returned shares of Smucker (that have soared) to PG shareholders in that exhange.

    Look at the PG portfolio for possibilities:

    I am not a strategy consultant or speculating--but I don't use pet food in personal or household care. Of course, the real gold may be batteries. I'd like them to keep it, but when I saw how much Pringles was worth--the sky is the limit on a Duracell (though, again, I'd like to see them keep it for now--unless I get shares in the new spin-off tax free)...

    My main point is FCF is one good metric and there is an interesting point here--but the brand strength is an offsetting factor PG has used creatively to shareholders benefit in other forms of dividends.
    Oct 28, 2013. 12:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble's Unsustainable Dividend Growth: Something Has To Give [View article]
    Telling graphs and nice piece...

    A couple of aspects that interest me: (1) new leadership and potential stronger FCF; (2) brand/franchise value and history of creative transactions to spin off brands to return value to shareholders.

    1) Leadership was a frequently cited drag and that headwind may be changing.

    2) Examine how PG spin-offs can literally create company brand portfolios (see JM Smucker and its former PG food/coffee brands).

    We have a couple of dozen very strong brands here, any one of which could be spun off to could give the company cash to return to shareholders for the foreseeable future and beyond (see Folgers, e.g.).

    Granted, some of these may not be cash per se but creative trust transactions giving shareholders stock in other entities. But I'd take my dividend in a Smucker-like stock any day (See, generally,
    Oct 28, 2013. 02:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spirit Spooks Me: No Trick, No Treat, Just A Risky REIT [View article]
    Saw this stock mentioned in a financial magazine/paper at library (read them all--for free!)--can't recall which one. So I looked it up...

    This article is far better and tells the larger story. Looks like the market has taken a similar stance on this company (based on price).

    Really does look like the story is: if you think the smaller Pamida/Shopko can stand up to WMT, TGT, AMZN,COST, (and dollar stores, Mom & Pops etc)...then consider it...a treat..

    If not so sure, stay away (more trick)..

    FYI: my local boyhood Pamida in small town Wyoming went under long ago and last I saw land/building was bought cheap by school district (maybe donated?) for vocational/alternative education center.

    Wal Mart is in town going strong last I drove through. Tells me all I need to know.

    Would only consider this firm if trading for value of land/structure (although really have to scrape some of these buildings from 20-30 years out). Leases of company trying to compete with Wal Mart/Costco etc risky and could get ground up in wheel of retail--into dust literally (vacant sq ft retail in rural NE anyone?)
    Oct 19, 2013. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harley Davidson In The World's Second Largest Motorcycle Market: India [View article]
    The Harley brand is as much lifestyle as transportation.

    So you need large amounts of disposable income (as you mention) and also a psychographic that may or may not exist to the same extent in emerging markets.

    People tattoo the Harley logo on their bodies in some of the developed markets--so you have a brand loyalty that is unique.

    The affiliation (owners groups), rallies, and lifestyle (or aspirations towards that lifestyle) seem to drive sales as much as the need for transportation.

    I would guess practical, economical transportation will take precedence over lifestyle or status motorcycles for some time.

    If the television show "Sons of Anarchy" become number one in India, you will be looking at a ripe market for sales... Hard to be like them on a Japanese moped....
    Jun 13, 2013. 05:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway: In The Discount Aisle For A Reason [View article]
    How do you like the picture for SWY with the announced sale of the Canadian stores and use of the proceeds to pay down debt and buy back shares?
    Jun 13, 2013. 05:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Equity's Foreclosure Binge (& Purge) [View article]
    This topic is hot in the financial news. Diana Olick for CNBC just out

    Article notes the market is "frothy", firms cutting back on buying, rents down in some market (oversupplying in some areas?), high vacancy for institution owned rentals. But over 1/2 have 5-10 timeline....Extending opportunity costs to a decade...

    My thought--maybe look to buy in fire sale 2018-2020 from distressed, pressured institutions that locked into illiquid assets for a decade of drippy faucets and trash-outs.

    Blue bloods may think twice about investment requiring blue collar work...
    Jun 7, 2013. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Equity's Foreclosure Binge (& Purge) [View article]
    Morgan Brennan has an in depth piece in the June 24th 2013 issue of Forbes on the topic:

    Some good facts and information. Some firms have 10,000 even 20,000+ homes... But also armies of employees to handle the scale.

    One figure cited is 6% return when all is said and done....

    But may be on the optimistic side. And still seems paltry with inherent risks (interest rate, rental rate risk, vacancies, liability, local property market risks, liquidity risks, opportunity costs of missing run up in market, an uptrend that has coincided with many of these investments)...

    Look what market has told us about the publicly traded firm(s) doing this--no real return expected. The comments about packaging the residential properties into complex securities or publicly traded firms also hints of some desperation and investors looking for exit strategies (another risk--how do you sell 10K homes? Lots of signs and closings?... and how do you do it without impacting the market??)

    Maybe the last act of this play is entitled "No Exit"
    Jun 6, 2013. 04:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment