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Michael L. Boyer  

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  • The Dow Class Of 1991: Where They Are Now [View article]
    Lots of great thoughts here!

    The big declines sound like great buying opportunities for the really long term investor. Some stocks would really be on sale with a 30-40% decline. Others, however, might be fairly priced.

    If you are dollar cost averaging, this could be ideal for the long term (20 yrs plus). Of course, massive declines are rough on those at or near retirements or living on investment income (unless they are short).

    Kind of depends on perspective. I see this even in the housing market. The 60 year old baby boomer is in deep sorrow over the loss of 50% of his housing value and can't cash out to downsize. Meanwhile, a twenty something couple is delighted to have just picked up a dream home in California 1/2 off the peak price.

    Declines can be great opportunities to dollar cost average into indexes and etfs at a very low basis. This does entail some long term faith in stocks, and they look to beat the other investment options out there over 30 year periods. But there have been some very long and very nasty bear markets.
    Sep 20, 2011. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dow Class Of 1991: Where They Are Now [View article]
    Not only can brokers not beat you, the evidence suggests, most pro's lag the indexes. So one might "buy the whole market" or sector in many cases and beat managed funds after expenses and fees.

    There is some good work out there on the power of index funds and etf's (i.e., passive investing) beating most "professionally" managed, higher cost mutual funds...

    I had a few epiphanies reading all of John Bogle's work and now religiously use index or etf's; however, I also embody the Vanguard paradox written about in the current Kiplinger's in that I practice indexing, but I also engage in some active investing in individual stocks (Bogle and Vanguard were index fund champions, but the firm also has some managed funds hence the paradox).
    Sep 9, 2011. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dow Class Of 1991: Where They Are Now [View article]
    Interesting thoughts, Jason!

    I think you have some valid points about time frames.

    Part of the key may be one's definition of long term. When I first started investing in my late teens, I saw a month or more as a long time frame... Later I began to think in terms of years.

    Today, I actually look at 20-30 year time frames, probably biased by my own age and investing goals towards retirement.

    So if someone has a 1, 3, or 5 year time frame, they may benefit less from the buy and hold stock counsel due to market volatility and conditions, and from from Siegal's work and research based on extremely long rolling periods. There have been some quite protracted bear markets.

    You highlight how his thesis of "buy and hold" really does rely on extremely long time frames. This piece is along that same theme--looking at a 20 year time frame for the Dow. Of course, there is also no guarantee the future of the market will reflect the trends of the last 100 yrs.
    Sep 9, 2011. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dow Class Of 1991: Where They Are Now [View article]
    Thanks ma11hew!

    That is a very good idea.

    I actually came across several potential articles putting this together. The corporate history--accurate and detailed--of a Sears, ATT, Kraft, MO, etc--is really more of a full article on its own or even a book. The recent book on A&P Groceries, for example, is selling well and details the company well.

    A similar book could be done on many of the iconic firms from the original Dow. Actually, much of the history and culture of firms can be telling.

    There is actually some very interesting research that could be done on company history and the returns--looking at all the spin offs, splits, mergers, etc.
    Sep 8, 2011. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dow Class Of 1991: Where They Are Now [View article]
    Well said!

    The mantra one keeps hearing from many firms is double digit growth in emerging markets and mid/low single digit growth in developed economies. They have to get some exposure.

    The scale is just tremendous in China and India. As those economies develop and the consumers buying power increases,
    he firms on the edge of this trend can really benefit shareholders.
    Sep 8, 2011. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dow Class Of 1991: Where They Are Now [View article]
    Great points! I tried to follow the corporate lineages of many of the existing Dow, and as you note, just for one company--especially a Kraft, actually a relative of General Foods, a past Dow family member--this can be very complex. But for a 1,000 (approx) word article for general readers (more than a management or corporate history readership), I simply could not follow the often twisting and complex corporate history of all the members without a very long article on just that topic with lots of references. Try both Siegel's books for tracking the original stocks on indexes and their innumerable changes in corporate identity. I think he may have some Wharton grad students and research assistants who have helped comb this history.

    A few original components are in their original form but others have gone through many changes. Sears was once a powerhouse in retail and other areas and just a remnant of its retail side exists in the form you mention. That is more the themes (the changes and trends more than a precise corporate history of every firm).
    Sep 8, 2011. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons To Buy Supervalu At $8 [View article]
    How about simple ones-- good locations; are the parking lots full; are the shelves ramshackle; do the workers have neck tatoos and large gold chains that say mutha%^&MklA; do you shop there alot and can you imagine others doing so?

    The qualitative stuff is key.
    Sep 3, 2011. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short-Term Power of Reinvesting Dividends [View article]
    You would like Jeremy Siegel's section on this topic in the Future for Investors...if you have not browsed it yet.

    There is some nice analysis about how this strategy would have even gotten people through some of the worst bear markets.

    All of my brokerages have made turning on the DRIPs very easy these days. I do recall back when they did not, however, and I got checks in the mail.

    The compounding can really take off in tax advantaged accounts, as well.

    You can get a similar effect overall with dollar cost averaging, too.
    Sep 1, 2011. 03:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beat Buffett's 6% Yield With Bank Of America Preferreds [View article]
    I did really well on preferreds with the PGF.

    I like the preferred in an etf or index type form. There is lots of risk with just one firm and it may not be worth the reward--even at 7%....Probably ok for Buffet, but not me.

    I recall thinking: GM could never go under...just before it did...

    But the etfs with preferreds seem chock full of European bank holdings that make me leery. Any good preferred etfs light on Euro bank-holdings?
    Sep 1, 2011. 03:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons To Buy Supervalu At $8 [View article]
    I don't have any of these stores in my area but recall them from the past.

    How do they fare against the warehouse type places (Costco, Sam's Club) or for that matter the likes of Wal-Mart's, Trader Joe's, or other grocers (Kroger, etc).
    Sep 1, 2011. 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denny's Poised To Overcome Demographic Headwinds [View article]
    Super points on their target marketing to those demographic groups.

    I think the other article cited above listed the under 35K income bracket as a common Denny's customer, too.

    They sell alot in the late night time slot, too.

    There may be another good article on the marketing mix to pursue.
    Aug 25, 2011. 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denny's Poised To Overcome Demographic Headwinds [View article]
    Great points!

    The company is doing some promising things overall with solid new locations (travel centers and colleges), paying down debt, buying back stock, shifting to franchises, adding new management, etc. but all these big picture strategy moves are not as important as the everyday restaurant, table, and plate level strategy. Those are what it is all about in the end.

    This is why the "keep your eyes on the fries" theme (that spell check somehow changed) is so key. Ray Kroc helped enshrine that in the MCD culture. Denny's might add a quality management system and culture that are similar.

    The latest quarterly results look promising, too, and ideally can be improved on for several more quarters to see some promising trends (in stronger earnings, lower debt, higher margins, etc). But they will have to combine the savvy financial management with an enhanced customer experience and high level of satisfaction, ferreting out the opportunities for defect in the items you list (food, service, and look and feel of units).
    Aug 23, 2011. 10:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Catching Homebuilders While the Sky Is Falling [View article]
    ITB is one I own based on the beat up home builders (and the speculative chance they could eventually return to favor in several years), but look at the composition of the ITB and see how many stocks benefit simply from home maintenance and remodeling or repairing existing homes.

    Even with no new homes, existing homes will continue to need these items. Granted, the 50K-100K kitchen remodel is not as popular as it was in 2004, but folks still need sinks, faucets, caulk, paint and more to keep their homes up.
    Aug 21, 2011. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Wide Moat Dividend Growth Stocks on Sale [View article]
    Nice work on this piece.

    PG definitely is a moat based firm, according to the theory popularized by Buffet. It would take tens of billions to build brands like Gillette, Tide, Pampers, Duracell, etc...

    I think you have a solid thesis for moats at ABT and INTC only it is not so much consumer preference based moat-ness (to coin a term) but more likely patent or intellectual property based moat-ness.

    Some consumers might put a premium on a Intel chip or an Abbot drug (well known OTC products probably = more consumer preference), but more likely they take what the doctor prescribes and what other firms cannot legally make. Similar theme for some of Intel's technology and patent protection.

    The key with the moat is the barrier effect--what keeps other out or acts as a barrier and differentiates commodity types firms that just compete on price (which kills margins).
    Aug 21, 2011. 06:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Dividend-Paying Blue Chips to Purchase for Your Parents [View article]
    Also look at buying the whole market through broadly indexes and etfs.

    Just one or two of these could tank leaving your parents in rough shape.
    Aug 21, 2011. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment