Seeking Alpha

Michael L. Boyer

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Michael L. Boyer's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Reviews You Can Use: Third-Party Product Reviews And Stock Price [View article]
    This thesis still appears valid in the auto context with Tesla Model S getting top CR rating and a concomitant stock boost.
    Feb 26 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denny's Management Discusses Q3 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Lots about the remodel. I like this in terms of customer satisfaction, brand building, loyalty and--a key we sometimes forget--the experience. Food and service are key, but drab carpet, early 90's decor, shaky booths, funny smells, peeling paint, scary restrooms--all can downgrade even the best food or service. It is a key part of the product/service; the place in the marketing mix.

    When you think about Schultz's (3rd place mantra for SBUX), I can't help thinking Denny's was the original 3rd place--decades before Chuck even happened upon the Mermaid in Seattle.

    And, we probably have much more in common with Hemingway's classic portrayal of a place people can go--between home and work and escape both practical and existential problems--a clean, well lighted place.
    Oct 29 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spirit Spooks Me: No Trick, No Treat, Just A Risky REIT [View article]
    Saw this stock mentioned in a financial magazine/paper at library (read them all--for free!)--can't recall which one. So I looked it up...

    This article is far better and tells the larger story. Looks like the market has taken a similar stance on this company (based on price).

    Really does look like the story is: if you think the smaller Pamida/Shopko can stand up to WMT, TGT, AMZN,COST, (and dollar stores, Mom & Pops etc)...then consider it...a treat..

    If not so sure, stay away (more trick)..

    FYI: my local boyhood Pamida in small town Wyoming went under long ago and last I saw land/building was bought cheap by school district (maybe donated?) for vocational/alternative education center.

    Wal Mart is in town going strong last I drove through. Tells me all I need to know.

    Would only consider this firm if trading for value of land/structure (although really have to scrape some of these buildings from 20-30 years out). Leases of company trying to compete with Wal Mart/Costco etc risky and could get ground up in wheel of retail--into dust literally (vacant sq ft retail in rural NE anyone?)
    Oct 19 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harley Davidson In The World's Second Largest Motorcycle Market: India [View article]
    The Harley brand is as much lifestyle as transportation.

    So you need large amounts of disposable income (as you mention) and also a psychographic that may or may not exist to the same extent in emerging markets.

    People tattoo the Harley logo on their bodies in some of the developed markets--so you have a brand loyalty that is unique.

    The affiliation (owners groups), rallies, and lifestyle (or aspirations towards that lifestyle) seem to drive sales as much as the need for transportation.

    I would guess practical, economical transportation will take precedence over lifestyle or status motorcycles for some time.

    If the television show "Sons of Anarchy" become number one in India, you will be looking at a ripe market for sales... Hard to be like them on a Japanese moped....
    Jun 13 05:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Equity's Foreclosure Binge (& Purge) [View article]
    This topic is hot in the financial news. Diana Olick for CNBC just out

    http://bit.ly/13qlXJR

    Article notes the market is "frothy", firms cutting back on buying, rents down in some market (oversupplying in some areas?), high vacancy for institution owned rentals. But over 1/2 have 5-10 timeline....Extending opportunity costs to a decade...

    My thought--maybe look to buy in fire sale 2018-2020 from distressed, pressured institutions that locked into illiquid assets for a decade of drippy faucets and trash-outs.

    Blue bloods may think twice about investment requiring blue collar work...
    Jun 7 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Equity's Foreclosure Binge (& Purge) [View article]
    Morgan Brennan has an in depth piece in the June 24th 2013 issue of Forbes on the topic:

    http://onforb.es/11mEoMm

    Some good facts and information. Some firms have 10,000 even 20,000+ homes... But also armies of employees to handle the scale.

    One figure cited is 6% return when all is said and done....

    But may be on the optimistic side. And still seems paltry with inherent risks (interest rate, rental rate risk, vacancies, liability, local property market risks, liquidity risks, opportunity costs of missing run up in market, an uptrend that has coincided with many of these investments)...

    Look what market has told us about the publicly traded firm(s) doing this--no real return expected. The comments about packaging the residential properties into complex securities or publicly traded firms also hints of some desperation and investors looking for exit strategies (another risk--how do you sell 10K homes? Lots of signs and closings?... and how do you do it without impacting the market??)

    Maybe the last act of this play is entitled "No Exit"
    Jun 6 04:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Equity's Foreclosure Binge (& Purge) [View article]
    Interesting piece out today on institutional investors actually fueling the price gains they are seeking. Are they putting in a floor or pumping up a mini-bubble?

    And who needs monthly cash-flow when engineering mass buying can pump up prices.

    Private equity still looking at significant transaction costs in quick sales (tax, commission, fix up, vacancy, marketing)..

    Suppliers of the enterprise have been the winners...

    http://bit.ly/ZMYeW2
    Jun 4 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Equity's Foreclosure Binge (& Purge) [View article]
    Balanced look at the management of units in the SacBee today and
    both sides of the coin on policy:

    http://bit.ly/YaAbhO
    Apr 8 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: A Dividend Dream Stock That Has Growth Potential [View article]
    Agree--top leadership could still be an open question short term.

    Longer term the organization seems to produce and attract top talent. Ideally, it can self correct to keep high standards.

    I like the "keep the eyes on the fries" types up from the ranks/ lifetime employees who flipped the burgers and ran operations for decades.

    The long term folks can get some more bang for the drip bucks with dips.
    Nov 27 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Apartment Communities Short Thesis [View article]
    Very well written, detailed analysis.
    Nov 21 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Equity's Foreclosure Binge (& Purge) [View article]
    Neat points, Wooster.

    Sounds like you are following some firms that are using a strategy to quickly flip the homes or to exchange them in tax deferred ways.

    The flipping strategy could depend more on buying at the right price, keeping improvement costs in line, and quickly finding bulk buyers (and keeping transaction costs in line).

    Of course, they'd miss out on longer term price appreciation--but you don't have to operate the single family homes. There is a neat Reuters article in the comments about a private equity firm selling homes and now expecting lower returns on the venture.

    It would be interesting to find out if the flipping is the plan "b" after seeing the issues with the management of the properties and low cash flow as rentals. Or maybe it is market dependent, with buyers emerging and sales possible.

    Just like individual investors, the main fly in the flipping ointment is finding a quick buyer. And what you do in the interim...
    Oct 31 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iShares Philippines ETF: Tapping One Of The Last Bull Markets [View article]
    Nice article. Good thesis.

    Could be a better location for low cost manufacturing than China and India....A well educated workforce, low costs, westernized culture, most people speak perfect US-style English, friendlier government...

    It was 2000, and I am riding in a pick up listening to George Strait... Could've been in Texas, but it was Baguio in the Northern PI. Everyone loved country music!

    So it could be a better cultural and even economic fit for manufacturing. We already see the edge for call centers and customer service centers. If the infrastructure improves, it could be a good site for some kinds of manufacturing, too.
    Oct 30 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Damaged Culture' No More? An Investing-In-The-Philippines Reality Check [View article]
    Nice article--very well written.

    What else is in the EPHE (other 34%)? I may check and see if I can find the the complete listing.

    Also, there may be some plays in the call centers and maybe remittances in some other publicly traded firms, but you outline the pure PI plays well.

    For those down on the low lands, maybe try Baguio.
    Oct 30 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denny's: A 'Grand Slam' For Investors? [View article]
    Just got back from 5 days in Denny's heavy Southern California. Steady but not overwhelming traffic in all of them. Still like to see that state's economy improve to get more people discretionary income and on the road for vacations.

    Restaurant competition is pretty fierce but Denny's has a nice value proposition with 24 hours, some new promotions (across America meals) and good prices.
    Jul 11 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway's General Motors Test Drive [View article]
    GM had a few models that had positive improvements on quality in a third party review (JD Power):

    http://yhoo.it/NZDHY4
    Jun 21 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
147 Comments
62 Likes