Michael Levy

Portfolio strategy, long/short equity, value, contrarian
Michael Levy
Portfolio strategy, long/short equity, value, contrarian
Contributor since: 2007
Company: Point of life Inc
In 2014 Intel grew at 6% while its stock value grew by 40% all due to PE expansion & share buy back. At $23.00 - $26.00 Intel makes sense. At $35.00 it is a high risky bet & if past history is anything to go by, its PE is 10-12 not 17 as it is now. As Intel goes, so goes the whole market ... Let the buyer be-Aware.
Education without wisdom is like a castrated horse, it has it uses but can never produce anything fruitful for the future.
If speculators are buying gold to protect themselves if money becomes valueless, what difference does it make what price it is?
Nothing has changed in thousands of years of myths so why would an article from 2011 have to change. It is what it is, and those who are looking for direction may ponder it and have more choices on what to Be-lie-ve?
If anyone is looking for the future direction of gold I suggest they read; ...http://seekingalpha.co...
This articles now 20 months old is still one that needs to be read by all investors & speculators.
It may not be a pretty picture right now but some of the best returns come from beaten down value stocks.
There is a record 48,000,000 shares short, which means the shorts have to pay out the 8%+ dividend.
If the company beats the estimates then they may run for cover and it could give an unexpected boost to the stock.
At the current price of $17.60 there are a lot more riskier places to put money, as there are many "good" stocks that have run up, too much, too fast, in the past few months.
I agree with your views with one caveat. If the whole market takes a big hit (which is looking more likely each day the market makes new highs) PBI may go below 17.35, but if it dips below that price on its own reports then as you say all bets are off.
Perhaps, with PBI's low valuation, someone may come along and make a bid for them?
They still generate enough cash for a predator to take them over? That said, never buy a stock solely on buyout possablities.
There are no 100% safe investments ... just some are less riskier than others.
Right on, the mailing system will be around a long, long time and even orders on-line have to be delivered to a destination. If PBI is earning over $2.00 in a slow economy, then when it picks up so may their earnings?
57Seagull, PBI is not a stock to bet the ranch on and your small percentage is about the correct amount to not get too involved . It certainly a lot better bet than treasuries, for one quarters dividend of 2% is better that the 10 year yield on treasury bonds.
PS; with a name like you have, do you spend a lot of time on the beach?
Colin thank you for your reply. It is logic and reasoning that connects to our emotions that seldom works in the stock market or any other form of speculation. The gut cannot lie but accessing it & more importantly interpreting its feelings, can be a problem for anyone with a clever brain. Simplicity is the key that opens many doors of prosperity.
VITX does not perform as I expected it to perform, so I advise taking your profit at $17.30 now and do not buy this one again ... IE except for experienced traders, who trade it short term, on a daily basis and understand the poor dynamics of this ETF.
They do a good job of dominating their sectors right now George. The macro view, may distort the micro view, in the short term and thus present a lower stock price.
You make a lot of sense in what you say, however, all the news is out on Intel and I feel it has had its run for the time being.
For the stock to move forward from here there needs to be a catalyst that will propel it forward. It's PE has moved from 9.5 to 11 and it may be a while before this can be expanded.
Bear in mind, Microsoft and Intel are cyclical stocks that have cycles that go up and down. Intel has been on the up for two years and this quarter they lowered their estimates before they announced earnings.
At this moment in time, I see too many forces that may hamper any significant move up. If my thoughts change in my empty mind, so will I.
Thank you for the data Cameraguy and I agree with you that Intel has a bright future. It is one of my favorite stocks for the past 16 years. That said, one of my golden rules is never fall in love with a stock. There is a time to buy and a time to sell.
The PC market is slowing and there have been warnings from Oracle, etc that businesses are starting to pull back.
With the fed's latest nonsense statement yesterday about zero rate for the next two years investors, home buyers and businesses will stay put until the smoke clears.
Europe will go into recession and this will have a knock on effect in China and India.
Iran may cause another war with the west and we know what that will do to the world markets
The only thing that has kept the market afloat the past two years is increased company earnings.
I sense the next two quarters may hold negative surprises and I moved from a very positive stance on the Market before Christmas to a neutral to bearish outlook for the next two quarters due to warning statements.
If I am wrong then so be it, however if I am correct, then I will be buying more Intel etc at lower prices in the summer. Ther is a time to sow and a time to reap and I am happy to sit back and watch the show unfold.
Best to be a happy chicken than a dead duck!
The Cure for Gold Fever...
Take ALL the gold myths with a pinch of salt and throw them over your left shoulder ... Enjoy!
If— By Rudyard Kipling 1865–1936 Rudyard Kipling
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!
I have to say, there are some very clever answers why gold should be considered as real money. However, they all have one (or maybe more) Flaw.
The value of gold is one of the most unstable and risky speculations in the world as the last 30 years can testify. In 1982 all the same arguments about gold's value came to the surface as gold traded at an all time high of $800. Now, the new all time high so far is $1812.
The question gold holders should ask themselves is; am I buying gold to make a profit, or is it some egotistical stick to beat up people who do not consider it anything other than just another vehicle to buy low and sell high.
We buy and sell stocks, bonds and commodities to make profit and as the old saying goes, there is no such thing as a bad profit.
When we are fortunate enough to make a profit and don't sell, then some time later, it all goes away and we end up with a loss, why then, we have grab failure from the jaws of our success.
For all the folks who be-lie-ve it will be different this time with gold here, is a quote from a fellow author who also understood the senseless cleverness of his time on earth some 152 years ago.
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way - in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only. "
Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities
English novelist (1812 - 1870)
If all currencies fail and money disappears then there will be no banks, no credit cards, no financial system, no stocks no bonds, no ETF's, thus no GLD's, no wages for workers, no cash registers in supermarkets where there will be nothing to buy, because money will no longer exist and the shelves will be emptied by the rioters.
Do people really believe gold is some how going to save them in such extreme circumstances?
Humanity will be back to the laws of the jungle with survival of the fittest and no amount of gold will help save people from Armageddon.
Perhaps those that survive with a pile of gold can melt it down, build an idol and pray to it for help?
Like it or not, with all its warts, we have a global monetary system and a 24 hour Forex market ...gold plays no part in it.
As for a few central banks buying gold now at $1750, well some central banks sold gold at $300, which tells us central banks may not be the best ones to follow.
If folks want to call gold money then how about we call it "Play Dough"?
Bottom line is, if you enjoy holding gold at today's prices then enjoy it but understand it is in a fear related bubble and no amount of clever thinking will change the bubble. That is not to say the bubble cannot expand, it can and may float into outer space until it pops?
Quite so Renegade, many be-lie-fs have be around for a long, long time, however, be-lie-fs are not truth!
Most are born from myths but are considered true by the holders. Hence we live in a world in chaos and confusion
Gold does have a value and can be a good investment if bought at a low price ..ie; buy low, sell high.
As for it being money, that is one of the classic myths in this day and age of Forex markets, where currencies can be traded 24/7.
Gold is a metal, not money.
There was a time when gold backed currencies, but that time has long gone and unless we want to go back in time and forget all modern technology, then gold will be just what it is...A speculative metal, that is smooth to hold, nice and shiny to look at ... and can sometimes hypnotize the holder into be-lie-ving its myths.
Vuke, Weren't all the folks who invested with Bernie Madoff clever?
Weren't the folks who invented the mortgaged backed notes clever and all the bankers who bought them ...All clever people. And for an encore, don't politicians believe themselves to be clever?
It is always best to understand our stupidity before we act, not after.
Peter, that is correct. Once you have bought 100 shares you can fax them a copy of the purchase and every time you book with them you get a $100.00 onboard credit.
Also, when you are sailing with them you can book a future cruise with a refundable $100 deposit and you do not need to be a share holder to get this.. For 10 day cruises you get $100 onboard credit for each deposit paid.
For over 14 days, you get $150 pp. You have 4 years in which to book the next cruise and if you do not book in that time frame you can get you money back at any time.
I have found it to be the best value for money in holidays that offer everything you need to enjoy yourself.
Buying shares should be an enjoyable experience even when the markets are tanking because you are buying sound stocks at a discount. Likewise, getting these extra perks on a super cruise is bought at a discount price is just the icing on the cake
JE, I guess old myths are the hardest to break?
That is, until they break.

Then they wait a few years, until a bunch of "clever" folks dig them up again and dresses them up in fancy words that seem to be true, but are nothing but "The Pits"; Perceptions, Ideas, Thoughts, Suggestions...All poising as the truth
W M, I did recommend Gold to be a 5% part of any investors portfolio when gold traded between $300 - $800 in the past ten years.
However, once it got over $1000 it was too rich for my blood and I sense any price over $1000 is an accident waiting to happen.
Just because the world seems to be in disarray does not make gold a good buy at $1600 ...It just makes it a lure of fools gold that depends on the myths of being a safe haven. Speculative bubbles always pop and end in tears of regret.
There are better values in other areas that pay good dividends while we wait for "better times"?
Intel goes ex-dividend tommorow 3 August, so today is the last day to get this quarters dividend. The stock may pull back tomorrow due to going ex-dividend.
Yes, Roger, fear and greed are close partners.
In the Dot.com and real estate boom, greed drove up the prices along side the fear of missing out on the profits of the boom.
Then, as prices peaked, the fear of losing money sent the booms reeling into the pits of oblivion.
The wise investor is never governed by emotion and can see a train wreck coming, before the train enters the tunnel of greed and fear.
Gold and treasuries are being driven by fear and greed with clouds of myths as their foundation for valuations.
When the sun shines through the clouds they may evaporate into no-thing.
Thank you VT for that link. I'm not one for charts and I have no idea when the gold bubble will pop. For sure, Gold is a well extended bubble, but a mania can go on for as long as the asylum lets in new inmates.
All bubbles are fed by fear ... Gold and Treasuries are the two biggest bubbles at this moment in time.
The only question is...Which will pop first?
History has tought us all bubbles are fed by fear gold and Treasuries are waiting to pop. The question is which will pop first?