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Michael Loeb  

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  • Amazon: A Retailer Valued Like A Tech Company [View article]
    This is a very interesting article, and in my opinion very ably captures the comparisons of companies against which Amazon competes.

    Good job, and thank you for putting words to my gut feeling that Amazon is not worth what it's currently selling for.
    Dec 9, 2013. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Value In Coach: Get Paid To Wait For The Turnaround [View article]

    Did you know that in KORS' most recent 10-Q, they have 237 full price stores with 485,250 sq ft, and 115 outlet stores with 339,177sq ft?

    Did you know that in FNP' most recent 10-Q, they have 107 full price stores and 48 outlet stores?

    I searched Google for Fifth and Pacific, Kate Spade's parent company. Fifth and Pacific used to be guessed it, Liz Claiborne, before the company sold the Claiborne brand to J.C. Penney. If there is anything to be said for qualitative factors, this fact is a negative for those who have faith in Kate Spade management to offer a sustainable long-term brand.

    Coach by comparison has 350 and 198 full price and retail stores , respectively, per their 10-Q.
    Dec 5, 2013. 10:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac: An Attractive, 'Buffettesque' Investment [View article]
    A company of Aflac's profitability should have tremendous float. The problem is most of the float comes from Japan, and repatriating earnings is not a good idea, so Aflac has chosen to keep its investments in yen, and the Nikkei has not exactly been doing well since 1990.

    Aflac might consider repatriating some of its earnings to earn a higher return in other markets, but I trust management has looked at this option extensively and made the decision to earn a low return and at worst defer repatriation taxes than earn a higher return on a much lower post-tax sum of money.
    Dec 5, 2013. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac: An Attractive, 'Buffettesque' Investment [View article]
    For the most part these will be paper losses. Aflac holds the majority of its bonds to maturity. Could present another buying opportunity in the future.
    Dec 4, 2013. 03:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac: An Attractive, 'Buffettesque' Investment [View article]
    A big reason Aflac has such a big presence in Japan is due to strict historical regulations against Japanese companies offering supplemental insurance. An American company, Aflac, was able to come in and have a near monopoly. Those regulations were loosened in 2000, so more insurers can offer supplemental insurance now, and Aflac does not have the near-monopoly it used to. It still is one of the best run insurers in Japan and maybe anywhere, but now has more competition.

    I'm interested to see if the Japan Post deal significantly adds to AFL's revenue.

    Long AFL
    Dec 3, 2013. 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac: Don't Fear Japanese Exposure [View article]
    There are a lot of moving pieces and its tough to see how it will work out. While the central bank can print money and create inflation, they cannot force employers to raise wages, which Abe is currently struggling with. If Japanese employers refused to raise wages along with the inflation created by the central bank, that could seriously reduce Japanese purchasing power at home. I generally agree that Japan will find a way to reform, but there are some serious cultural changes that need to take place, such as labor force mobility and immigration reform to allow the population to continue to grow and increase the tax base. These are just two issues facing the Japanese economy, and unfortunately they seem to be deeply ingrained within the Japanese psyche.

    Shinzo Abe is doing a decent job pushing these reforms as well as gradual sales tax increases, but if conditions turn worse before they turn better, his considerable charisma and political capital could erode rather quickly.

    Those are my fears with this investment, and I'm long AFL
    Nov 21, 2013. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue-Chip Investing And The Back End Of Compounding [View article]
    Are you including taxes in that calculation, retailinvestor? The benefits of deferred taxes can have terrific benefits over the course of the time frame referenced in the article.
    Nov 12, 2013. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue-Chip Investing And The Back End Of Compounding [View article]
    Hey Mike, good to see some of your comments on here. Hope you're doing well.

    I think reinvesting dividends makes sense for many people for a lot of reasons.

    Even if "tactically" reinvesting dividends during pullbacks and taking cash dividends during overvaluation periods generates higher returns, it is often much easier psychologically to just pick good companies and reinvest the dividends.

    Who is going to really jump to reinvest dividends during a 20% market correction? The best do, but the rest of us should KISS, Keep it simple stupid.
    Nov 12, 2013. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's Dividend To Explode Higher [View article]
    Money Madam,

    What do you like about the culture?
    Nov 12, 2013. 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vera Bradley Shares Look Cheap With New CEO And Retail Expansion [View article]
    Also, Stan, not sure I got a response on Vera's broken business model. What did you mean?
    Nov 12, 2013. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vera Bradley Shares Look Cheap With New CEO And Retail Expansion [View article]
    Stan, anyone shorting this company ignores the fact that Vera Bradley is a company with terrific returns on equity in the 35% range with minimal debt and now no debt growing income at double digit rates in a generally lackluster retail environment.

    Shorts are looking at the inventory piling up and saying the company can't maintain sales growth by discounting its inventory as you say, but Vera's fundamentals have a long way to fall before I start getting worried about them.

    The short squeeze potential in this company is just an added bonus that will make any additional moves in the stock happen faster than if there were no short interest.
    Nov 12, 2013. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vera Bradley Shares Look Cheap With New CEO And Retail Expansion [View article]
    Hi Stan,

    You mention so-so products charged at a high premium. Could you explain how their products are so-so? Do you own one or two yourself?

    You also say that their business model is broken. Please elaborate. I just want the facts. No opinion necessary.
    Nov 11, 2013. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach: Ripe For Takeover? [View article]
    The CFO is a woman.
    Oct 28, 2013. 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Determine Good Vs. Poor Quality Within The Value Universe [View article]
    Be careful to extrapolate past special dividends into the future. While it certainly signals shareholder friendly management, I wouldn't want anyone to get the idea that they should expect those dividends. The past few years have offered consistently profitable companies few internal investment opportunities, so one of the logical choices would be to return capital to shareholders. Additionally, the change in taxes at the end of 2012 incentivized numerous large special dividends. Both the financial crisis and the fiscal cliff are not events one can count on repeating soon, so I would generally not project these special dividends into the future, other than as a qualitative signal that management is rational and shareholder friendly.
    Oct 18, 2013. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 80 Year Prediction On 3D Printing And Robotics [View article]
    So, by your argument, we will have 3D Printers capable of manufacturing other 3D printers "until the spread between the cost of producing the good and what customers are willing to spend on that specific good reaches zero".

    I don't question the technological wonder of these machines, I just don't want to be an owner in what seems inevitable to be a commodity business.
    Oct 11, 2013. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment