Seeking Alpha

Michael Lubeck

 
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  • Population Decline And Japan's Stock Market
    Thu, Mar. 13 DXJ, EWJ, NKY 6 Comments

    Summary

    • In the past 40 years, the annual number of births in Japan has declined from a little over 2 million to a little over 1 million.
    • The secular decline in birthrates means fewer consumers and fewer investors. Fewer consumers to fuel the economy at age 30 and fewer investors to bid up stocks at age 40.
    • The production of manufactured goods requires significant capital investment. This capital stock must be fully utilized to maximize the investment. The excess capital stock is now a liability.
    • Japan's trade imbalance will persist, hurting the economy and stock market. The economy is based in manufactured goods, not commodities. The flow of exported goods cannot be as easily adjusted.
  • An Explanation For The Divergent Prices Of Gold And Stocks
    Sun, Jan. 12 DGL, GLD, IAU 14 Comments
  • Investing And The Birthrate: Why The Market Picks Up 50 Years After A Baby Boom
    Nov. 25, 2013 SPY, AGG, BOND 23 Comments
  • The Correlation Between Demographics And Interest Rates
    Sep. 6, 2013 TBT 33 Comments