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Michael Moretto  

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  • S&P's Semi-Downgrade of U.S. Sovereign Debt: Too Little, Too Late [View article]
    I think what is important to consider is the potential impact of a debt downgrade. Giving a downgrade will only make it more expensive and more difficult for the US to borrow. This will inevitably lead to even greater financial problems that the country may not be able to solve. I agree that the US needs to do some very serious spring cleaning; but cheering from the investment community for a downgrade may magnify a dormant problem that can grow to a scale that no one is able to deal with (just as with sub-prime).
    Apr 22, 2011. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strengths and Weaknesses of Yamana Gold [View article]
    That is absolutely true. Yamana has issued substantial amounts of shares in the past and the market will not forget this. This can provide a very interesting investment opportunity. If you are bullish on Gold then short Yamana in a pair trade as it will not outperform Gold (if bearish on the stock). Yamana or Gammon would both be good under performers for a pair trade.
    Apr 22, 2011. 12:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Detour Gold Expands Its Reserves; Stock Reacts Positively [View article]
    That's the thing with this Detour, you have the upside that will come from the mine development and there is a large upside that can come from an acquisition. The only concern is that as the stock price appreciates large players may be less likely to put a bid in for Detour. As the Detour's P/NAV goes up, the possible accretion created by a large producer with a higher P/NAV will become lower and thus make the deal less attractive.
    Feb 7, 2011. 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The China Factor in Oil Prices [View article]
    I think oil prices have not been about the supply side since $147 prices. It is common knowledge that some OPEC members cheat on production quotas from time to time. OPEC was and will be powerful when the economy is stable, but as soon as you add instability and uncertainty supply gets put on the back burner.
    Jan 22, 2011. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Building Permits Surged in December [View article]
    Obviously building permits increasing is not a bad sign. However using it to say the market might recover is problematic because permits don't always switch over to starts. I would also be interested to see if municipalities are loosening standards for issuing building permits in an attempt to stimulate local construction. I don't think anyone will be really paying attention to permits until we see a 3-4 month confirmed trend.
    Jan 20, 2011. 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the iPad Cannibalizing PC Sales? [View article]
    What I think must be considered is Apple's ability to make a product stick. Apple has not just been a trend setter but has outright created markets for products. I was skeptical about the iPad and what I perceived to be a very narrow market. I failed to note that Apple is able to open up markets.

    Can the iPad cannibalize PC sales? I would say yes, maybe not right now but soon. Apple always does incremental product improvements without changing the formula. Just the number of powerful business Apps is phenomenal. I think that apple's app store programs may become the standard for mobile computing due to ease of use.

    As for the question of it steal 'mac' sales, I don't see this as much of a problem since the iPad will generate more app and program revenue then a mac ever could.
    Jan 19, 2011. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barnes & Noble's Nook: New Niche? [View article]
    This new nook is unfortunately a undifferentiated product. If consumers want a power tablet they will go with the iPad and if they want a simple dedicated e-reader with phenomenal content then the KIndle is the way to go. In my opinion this is a luke warm product at best. Making your product cheaper than the leader and more expensive than another is not really a strong definitive product position. B&N would have to try to create a unique product that doesn't compete directly against some very competent players.
    Nov 2, 2010. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Daily Customer Visits at Starbucks Expected [View article]
    I wouldn't be overly concerned with regards to McDonalds stealing customers from SBUX or at least competing on the same level. If anything McDonalds acts like an inferior product for coffee. I would suggest that SBUX has a rather limited impact on driving customers into their stores given the current economic condition. I highly doubt they will change their market position to a low cost provider as it will destroy their brand equity. SBUX in the long term is more of a play on high/mid paying job unemployment levels.
    Oct 27, 2010. 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Warns on Deflation, Markets Soar [View article]
    Given rates and CPI levels over the last 2 quarters we should be concerned with a repeat of a Japan deflationary spiral if we don't see a confirmed recovery by Q4.
    Sep 22, 2010. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada Outlook: Expansion and Optimism Rule Despite Cool in Growth [View article]
    I fear that there is a risk that Canada may rely too heavily on the commodity side of the economy to pull itself out of the recession. While this may not be a bad thing entirely, I am just afraid that everyone will forget about our service/retail sectors that seem to be doing not so well at the moment. I think macro numbers will recover overall if/when we see a commodity rise, but the underlying economy may take much longer to fully recover.
    Jul 8, 2010. 05:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will BP Be a Buy? [View article]
    While I agree that new major negative pressed has slowed, I would say that BP has a bit more to fall. With hurricane season coming and potentially more problems coming from the US regulators, more negative news won't surely help the stock. However I wouldn't short the stock at this point. I would rather be safe than sorry and would hold off buying BP until we start to see some positive news. Yes you might lose 5-10% return but given that the stock is 50% off I don't think 5-10% will make a difference if we see BP come back.
    Jun 29, 2010. 06:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications of Goldcorp Mine Closure in Guatemala [View article]
    I am not being negative on the situation at all, I am simply commenting on a piece of news that is material on a company that I follow. Take another read and you will see I said to wait on buying the stock but not to expect a major correction.
    Jun 25, 2010. 11:31 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating a Gold Producer [View article]
    logicalthought: I appreciate the comment, I will try to cover other aspects of the mining industry as there seems to be a good level of interest.

    Skaiste: I couldn't agree more, if you have a CEO that is just interested in issuing stock to get cash your going to have a hard time getting capital appreciation as a shareholder. I will probably write another short article on valuations/metrics later on.
    Jun 24, 2010. 04:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strengths and Weaknesses of Yamana Gold [View article]
    YRI is the ticker for Yamana on the toronto stock exchange. It will be nearly identical to its US counterpart in terms of stock performance.
    Jun 10, 2010. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strengths and Weaknesses of Yamana Gold [View article]
    While i agree there is a possibility of this happening, i would beleive that it is extremley remote. I justify this on the basis that these mines are far too central to the economies of these countries to be shut down or siezed. If in fact they are siezed that will cut off all foreign investment in that country. Most of the deveolping nations are far too relient to risk no foreign investment. So i would have to say the risk of takeover is limited if not almost non existent.
    Jun 10, 2010. 01:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment