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Michael Murphy, CFA

 
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  • Towerstream Corporation's (TWER) Jeff Thompson on Q1 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Yeah, blah, blah, second rent-based customer for our Manhattan network, blah, blah, first anchor tenant for our Chicago, San Francisco and Miami networks, blah, blah, partnership agreement with Alcatel, blah, blah - nothing to see here. Back to buying calls on TSLA.
    May 13 05:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Durata Therapeutics: Approval Probability And Investment Strategy For Dalbavancin [View article]
    Good article! Please define "FDA member" as opposed to "FDA employee" and "FDA Adviser." I'm not sure why you think an AdCom member is anything other than an "FDA Adviser."
    May 7 04:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Refill Tracking - Week 17 [View article]
    fafatooey - remind me - what was the average % weight loss of responders who completed the first year of the clinical trials? TIA
    Oct 15 06:05 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennial Media Has Significant Upside After Jumptap Acquisition [View article]
    Or, as Zack's says, the combined company “is likely to form a behemoth in its category with complementary product offerings, operating synergies and technological collaboration to serve a wide spectrum of customers across the globe.”

    They already reported some quarterly profits last year, and should be profitable in the September and December quarters, and for all of 2014.

    If you don't want to participate in a market growing 40% a year, that's your choice. MM is the best way to do that.
    Sep 26 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Week 14: Back On Track? [View article]
    Thanks, Rod. I don't understand why SO never prints the actual numbers.
    Sep 20 01:20 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Dip On Holiday Week [View article]
    Thanks - I was one of the few people who knew both drugs would be approved.
    Sep 13 11:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Dip On Holiday Week [View article]
    Spencer, I notice that you never print the actual IMS number. Is there a reason for that?

    In this article you say: "This week the IMS scripts came in at a bit over 3,800 with 9 more prescriptions this week as compared to last week. This represents flat week-over-week growth."

    Later you say: "This week scripts were down 14% from last week."

    Which is correct?

    In the comments, puppy says the previous week scripts = 3,849 and the Labor Day week = 3,314.
    Sep 13 03:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Prescriptions Flat Week Over Week [View article]
    Spencer, I think it really is about phentermine + Belviq, not the other way around. People on phentermine need to go off it every 12 weeks to detox. In the past, their weight has rebounded during the detox period. Now they can go on Belviq to suppress their appetite during detox, and they'll probably stay on after they go back on phentermine. So the patients already on phentermine, and their doctors, are a target-rich environment for Eisai.
    Sep 7 08:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Arena A Buy Near 52-Week Lows? [View article]
    How is a 42% response rate "low"? And that's from the trials - the anecdotal evidence is the actual response rate (5% weight loss at 12 weeks) is considerably higher.
    Aug 28 04:39 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To The Future For Paramount Gold And Silver [View article]
    slam dunk - PZG is a prospect developer, not a miner. The PEA shows the startup and capital costs to develop a mine, and calculates the ROI. It is meant to present a shovel-ready plan to an acquirer. They are going to sell the company, not try to build a mine.
    Aug 8 06:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: The Improving Odds Of A Belviq Blockbuster [View article]
    If your new drug Phatoph was approved, what is the weight loss you would expect to see in actual use, with the 5 miles running and 1000 calorie diet? 1% or 26%?
    Jun 25 01:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Is Still A Great Short [View article]
    You do realize that Eisai will be selling into distributors for inventory stocking during June? 20,000 pharmacies are supported by a pretty big distribution network.
    May 23 05:09 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once Heralded Dendreon May Be Approaching The End Of Its Financial Road [View article]
    All the alternatives have far worse side effects. You do have the choice, if you get prostate cancer, of doing nothing. Good luck with that.
    May 16 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once Heralded Dendreon May Be Approaching The End Of Its Financial Road [View article]
    That article says 2017, and they are about 18 months behind on the revenue ramp, so I'd say 2019.
    May 15 07:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once Heralded Dendreon May Be Approaching The End Of Its Financial Road [View article]
    "Hence I say we can predict 2013 sales of $330 million for 2013. If the company can reach this level then it would still be far below the $100 million needed per quarter to achieve positive operating cash flow.."

    What is your math here? $67 million in Q1 + $75 million in Q2 = $142 million in H1. So they need $188 million in H2 to get to your number, which is $20 million lower than the consensus. If they do $88 million in Q3, they will do $100 million in Q4 and have positive cash flow.

    With $337 million in cash and $27.7 million in debt not due until 2014, why would they raise money now, before they achieve positive cash flow?
    May 14 05:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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