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Michael Murphy, CFA

 
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  • Dendreon: Overall Survival Data For Provenge From 2012 GU Poster [View article]
    On August 1, 2010, Vox_populi_00 wrote: "...are you sure you want to defend a company whose drug is killing people? Dendreon has duped us all into thinking Provenge works. if your dad had prostate cancer and you'd been duped into thinking this drug works when it really kills people, wouldn't you WANT to know? This intervention shortens lives. Real scientists with REAL facts and REAL expertise have the ear of CMS. they are not about to drop this NCA. in a couple of months the whole world will see that Dendreon's trials killed placebo patients, and that this intervention shortens lives. No war of words and lobbying groups, just facts."

    He's obviously a shortseller to be ignored.
    Feb 18, 2012. 02:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Biotech Stocks To Consider Buying, 2 To Sell In 2012 [View article]
    "Arena Pharmaceuticals plans to resubmit its application for Lorcaserin drug with the FDA by the end of 2011 or beginning 2012."

    StockCroc, they already did. How did you miss that?
    Jan 27, 2012. 06:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Altucher's Bull: 'I Could See, But Now Am Blind' [View article]
    A good Round One, and made me think about the Altucher column - I read everything he writes. I'd only quibble with:
    "Today, these banks would not be allowed to have the time to slowly and quietly shore up their balance sheets without having to worry about a panic. CDS ensure that something like the LDC crisis would have caused massive losses to be incurred almost instantly. Funding stress on the institutions involved would be severe, and short selling attacks lighting quick. So yes, Europe exposure is nowhere near what the LDC exposure was for the 8 money-center banks in 1981, but that doesn't really matter much when you factor in how different the banking system is today and how much more efficient financial markets are at identifying and exposing weak links."

    CDS' don't pay if the association of CDS writers says "that wasn't a defualt." And if you don't think FASB gave the banks complete cover to extend and pretend, you haven't looked at the numbers. The financial markets are not exposing anything. Write everything down to market, US and Europe, and see how many banks are left standing.
    Jan 5, 2012. 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Antares Pharma's Birth Control Gel Has Potential To Generate Big Money [View article]
    They partnered Exalgo, and I think they need more clinical results to partner Synavive. They definitely need at least Phase II results to partner the ion-channel drugs that just went into Phase I. As I remember, Ariad had deforolimus in Phase III for metastatic sarcomas when they partnered with Merck.
    I am recommending Antares, too, but I think you are being too hard on the management of Zalicus. Their drugs are at a different stage of development.
    Dec 29, 2011. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Antares Pharma's Birth Control Gel Has Potential To Generate Big Money [View article]
    Scott, what is your evidence that management is poor?
    Dec 29, 2011. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back-Door Bazooka: The EU Solution? [View article]
    More important, you are betting on deflation before inflation. That means you are betting against Bernanke and his unlimited checkbook. I think that's a terrible bet. He is an avowed enemy of deflation and he has the power to inflate as much as necessary. Obviously, he is fighting the three huge deflationary forces I covered in Survive The Great Inflation. He would like to inflate just enough to offset them, but not so much that the CPI and interest rates take off. So far, he is winning. We know his bias is to inflation, and therefore there is a chance he makes a mistake and inflates too much. That's my worry. I don't worry about him inflating too little, because he is on the alert for deflation and will counteract it immediately.
    So I think you are on the wrong side of the trade. We'll see.
    Dec 26, 2011. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back-Door Bazooka: The EU Solution? [View article]
    At one point you asked why a bank that can borrow at 1% and lend to a soveriegn at 6% would ever make a private loan. The answer, of course, is that the private loan is made at an even higher interest rate because there is a credit spread between commercial loans and sovereign loans.
    Dec 26, 2011. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Out For Gold Miners ETF Income And Capital Gains Distributions In December [View article]
    As I said above, my guess was that the income dividend on GDXJ would be in the $1.00 to $2.00 range this year. It is $1.212. GDXJ will also pay a short-term capital gain of 2.5 cents per share and a long term gain of 34.9 cents per share.

    GDX is paying a 15 cent per share income distribution, and no short- or long-term capital gain. They took steps to avoid the 60-cent long-term gain they expected at October 31.

    The ex-date for these is December 23, record date December 28, payment date December 30.
    Dec 23, 2011. 12:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint Nextel: Still Plenty Of Room To Fall [View article]
    Consumers Report top two wireless providers: Verizon & Sprint. Worst wireless provider: AT&T. So I can move from the worst to the #2 and get unlimited data? Hmmm.
    Dec 8, 2011. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Out For Gold Miners ETF Income And Capital Gains Distributions In December [View article]
    They have to liquidate stocks to pay the cash out. However, for all those who have dividend reinvestment, they can just do an accounting transaction and "buy" more shares of the ETF.
    Dec 8, 2011. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Out For Gold Miners ETF Income And Capital Gains Distributions In December [View article]
    It comes from the companies classified as Passive Foreign Investment Companies, because they are structured to receive royalties rather than earnings from mining operations. So even though they don't pay a dividend, GDXJ has to take its share of their net earnings in as a dividend equivalent, and then distribute it - even though they never received any cash.
    Dec 7, 2011. 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ultimate Demise Of The Euro: When, Not If [View article]
    Suggest you read "The Folly Of Underestimating Germany And The ECB"
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 5, 2011. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Out For Gold Miners ETF Income And Capital Gains Distributions In December [View article]
    The value of the fund will drop by the amount of the distribution on the ex-div date. You get income, but give up the capital gain. It's equal in a tax-free account, but in a taxable account you will permanently lose what you have to pay in taxes.
    Dec 5, 2011. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Default Deflationary? [View article]
    You wrote a great article, Stanley. Required reading.
    Dec 5, 2011. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Default Deflationary? [View article]
    I don't think the central bankers have an alternative. It's either austerity and depression, which brings immediate pain that not only moves billions worldwide into greater poverty - think of the impact of sharply rising unemployment in India and China, or falling commodity prices in Africa and South America - or inflation. Depression means the current politicians get thrown out. Inflation means they may be able to hold on to their jobs. So they inflate.
    Dec 5, 2011. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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