Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Portfolio App for iPad
Finance
(1)

Michael Murphy

View as an RSS Feed
View Michael Murphy's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Arena Is Still A Great Short [View article]
    You do realize that Eisai will be selling into distributors for inventory stocking during June? 20,000 pharmacies are supported by a pretty big distribution network.
    May 23 05:09 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once Heralded Dendreon May Be Approaching The End Of Its Financial Road [View article]
    All the alternatives have far worse side effects. You do have the choice, if you get prostate cancer, of doing nothing. Good luck with that.
    May 16 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once Heralded Dendreon May Be Approaching The End Of Its Financial Road [View article]
    That article says 2017, and they are about 18 months behind on the revenue ramp, so I'd say 2019.
    May 15 07:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once Heralded Dendreon May Be Approaching The End Of Its Financial Road [View article]
    "Hence I say we can predict 2013 sales of $330 million for 2013. If the company can reach this level then it would still be far below the $100 million needed per quarter to achieve positive operating cash flow.."

    What is your math here? $67 million in Q1 + $75 million in Q2 = $142 million in H1. So they need $188 million in H2 to get to your number, which is $20 million lower than the consensus. If they do $88 million in Q3, they will do $100 million in Q4 and have positive cash flow.

    With $337 million in cash and $27.7 million in debt not due until 2014, why would they raise money now, before they achieve positive cash flow?
    May 14 05:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Gets Long Awaited DEA Scheduling [View article]
    In a marketing study Arena did while the Phase III trials were in process, 20% of the doctors said they would prescribe Bel-Phen right out of the gate. They are very familiar with phentermine, and Eisai is making sure they are very familiar with Belviq.

    Wait until Oprah or Chris Christie loses weight on Bel-Phen and tells the world how they did it.
    May 8 04:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Anti-Obesity Drug Company Stocks Trade In Tandem? [View article]
    80% of the patients in the Qsymia trials were women of childbearing age.

    One problem with Qsymia is that it makes birth control pills less effective.
    Apr 4 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Velti: Serial Underachiever Continues To Disappoint [View article]
    Selling for half of book value and half of sales per share in a market growing 40% a year, with a new, very experienced CFO well-known to Wall Street? Interesting!
    Mar 15 11:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint Turnaround Continues, But Risks Remain [View article]
    Bill - Are you still a buyer only under $1.75?
    Feb 14 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: A Solution To The EV And 'Clean Coal' Debacles [View article]
    If you think EVs are going to win, rent a Leaf for a week. I did, and gave it back after two days. You spend all your time planning trips to be near a charger, and then spending 4 hours waiting for the recharge. Or you get home with low batteries, plug it in and have a 20-hour wait until it's recharged. Ridiculous.
    Jan 24 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals, May Be The Last Chance To Get In Under $10 [View article]
    The question is whether a doctor will prescribe Qsymia to a woman who might become pregnant, even accidentally.
    Jan 14 03:08 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Towerstream Corporation Is On The Verge Of Explosive Profits [View article]
    A lot of "ifs?" Not really. Plenty of time has passed to do the engineering integration of the first, and probably second, carrier. We can expect that announcement shortly. The example the CFO used on the last conference call for contract terms should be a good starting point for numbers to crunch. Major dilution is unlikely, with debt priced this low.

    If you wait for "the opacity regarding their relationships with the carriers clears, the contracts terms are favorable, and we get some real numbers to crunch" you will paying up.
    Dec 20 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Contrarian View: Let's Not Put All Our Money On Lorcaserin Just Yet [View article]
    Thank you for pointing out that "It is only now that the FDA has accorded approval to...Vivus for..Phentermine (trade name Qsymia)..."

    I found this to be the most accurate part of your article.
    Dec 7 02:11 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares Of BioCryst Pop On Merger Termination, But Gains Are Temporary [View article]
    "You should assume that as of the publication date of any report or letter, PropThink, LLC and persons or entities with whom it has relationships (collectively referred to as PropThink) has a position in all stocks (and/or options of the stock) covered herein that is consistent with the position set forth in our research report."

    i.e., short.
    Dec 1 02:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Qsymia's Launch Challenges A Category Problem? [View article]
    Arena has no debt.
    Nov 7 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did You Escape Sprint In Time? [View article]
    "What Softbank is offering is $7.30 cash for half your current holdings, give or take, and stock worth just $5.25 for the rest."

    Since I can buy Sprint right now for $5.52, why is this not a great deal? 100 shares costs $552. Sprint will tender for 55 of my shares for $401.50. That means I have a net cost of $151.50 for my other 45 shares, or only $3.36 each. You say the stock will be "worth just $5.25." That's a 56% profit on my 45 shares, or a 34% profit overall. Seems pretty good.

    And I think New Sprint will be worth a lot more than $5.25. That is what Softbank is paying, but they are getting a sweetheart deal.

    Tell me where I am wrong, or go buy S.
    Oct 25 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
300 Comments
641 Likes