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Michael Nau

 
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  • Short Credit Acceptance: Approaching A Negative Inflection Point
       • Tue, May. 20 CACC 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Per-unit profitability is declining as industry competition heats up.
    • The company has maintained earnings momentum by leveraging up and buying back shares, but this strategy is reaching its limit.
    • The market is valuing the company based on unsustainable recent earnings rather than normalized earnings or book value.
    • The founder and chairman sees the writing on the wall and has started to cash out.
  • Do Not Buy Alcoa
    Thu, Apr. 10 AA 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Alcoa's fundamentals are deteriorating, yet the market reacted positively to its poor results.
    • There are signs that investors are taking an increasingly speculative outlook on financially weak companies like Alcoa.
    • If you think investors are underestimating risks in Europe and China, shorting Alcoa may be a good hedge.
  • Income Inequality And Financial Instability
    Mon, Mar. 10 SPY, DIA, QQQ 70 Comments

    Summary

    • Capitalism requires a balance between economic growth and wages so workers can pay for what they make.
    • Economic growth without wage growth can occur if financed by debt.
    • Debt-financed growth can happen for a long time, but is unsustainable and eventually leads to financial crises.
    • The U.S. is at historically high levels of income concentration, even as income in the middle stagnates.
    • Whenever such extreme inequality occurred in the past, markets crashed.
  • VIX Shorts, Look Out Below
    Wed, Mar. 5 SVXY, VXX, ZIV 59 Comments

    Summary

    • VIX futures ETPs have become extremely popular and investors are increasingly on the short side of the trade.
    • This strategy works when the trade is not too crowded and the market is moving from fear to calm.
    • Now the market is complacent and investors are in a bidding war to sell "market insurance."
    • Unless investors are willing and able to engage in relative value strategeis in the VIX space, it is time for shorts to get out and reduce risk.
  • Are REITs Undervalued?
    Nov. 21, 2013 VNQ 10 Comments
  • BofI Pops: Post-Earnings Analysis
    Nov. 5, 2013 BOFI 18 Comments
  • Credit Acceptance The Best Bet In Credit Services
    Nov. 1, 2013 CACC 5 Comments
  • Sell BofI Holdings Before Earnings
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 29, 2013 BOFI 39 Comments
  • VIX Traders Are Complacent
    Sep. 30, 2013 SVXY, XIV 19 Comments
  • Cal-Maine Is A Short
    Aug. 27, 2013 CALM 29 Comments
  • Imogo Mobile Technologies Is Worth $0
    Aug. 9, 2013 IMTC 5 Comments
  • BofI Holding Is Firing On All Cylinders
       • Aug. 8, 2013 BOFI 8 Comments
  • The Risk That Should Keep VIX Shorts Up At Night
    Jul. 29, 2013 SVXY, UVXY, XIV 44 Comments
  • VIX Shorts, Have A Little Patience
    Jul. 18, 2013 SVXY, XIV, VXX 48 Comments
  • Citizens, Inc. Faces Downward Pressure On Earnings And Book Value
    Editors' Pick • Jun. 17, 2013 CIA Comment!
  • Dole Management's Questionable Buyout Deal
    Jun. 12, 2013 DOLE 5 Comments
  • First Internet: A Great Investment For The Risk Tolerant
       • Jun. 11, 2013 INBK 7 Comments
  • Atlantic American: Too Expensive For What You Get
       • Jun. 11, 2013 AAME Comment!
  • American Independence Corporation: Return-Free Risk
       • Jun. 10, 2013 AMIC 9 Comments
  • Symetra Is A Buy
       • Jun. 10, 2013 SYA Comment!
  • National Western Life: An Asymmetric Risk-Reward Opportunity
       • Jun. 7, 2013 NWLI 10 Comments
  • BofI Holdings Goes Parabolic: Revisiting The Original Thesis
       • Jun. 7, 2013 BOFI 11 Comments
  • Which Emerging Markets Are Cheap?
    Jun. 6, 2013 VWO, ECH, EIDO 8 Comments
  • ETNs As A Risk Redistribution Mechanism
    Editors' Pick • Jun. 5, 2013 20 Comments
  • Avoid REIT, Small Cap And Value ETFs
    Editors' Pick • Jun. 4, 2013 IWD, IWM, SPY 22 Comments
  • Dole Is Too Risky
       • Jun. 3, 2013 DOLE 8 Comments
  • Modeling The VIX Futures Curve
    May. 31, 2013 SVXY, TVIX, UVXY 18 Comments
  • Is Our Corporate Tax System Irrational?
    May. 23, 2013 AAPL, BAC, BRK.A 24 Comments
  • The Case For Long-Short VIX Portfolios
    Editors' Pick • May. 14, 2013 SVXY, TVIX, UVXY 25 Comments
  • Things Are Looking Up For Nicholas Financial
    May. 10, 2013 NICK 4 Comments
  • Magellan Health Services Is Cheap, But Will Likely Become Cheaper
    May. 9, 2013 MGLN Comment!
  • How Apple Let Its Shareholders Down
    May. 6, 2013 AAPL 26 Comments