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Michael Nau

 
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  • Apple Should Pay Its Tax Bill [View article]
    KenC, it just depends on how much they set aside, and whether they set aside the entire expected bill. If they have, then I was incorrect about my statement regarding increased earnings. Its a bit of a black box, so I'm not sure.
    Apr 16, 2013. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Moves To Make On The Verge Of Market Panic [View article]
    You say the price of gold is about supply and demand, and I agree. You note that the supply is pretty fixed. What about demand? I think that can fall a lot from here.
    Apr 16, 2013. 01:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Sweet Siren Song Of XIV [View article]
    I agree that XIV is a hot potato and that holders should be day traders or have nerves of steel. But if I bought the index XIV tracks right before Lehman, I'd be up 250%. I'd have to wait through a few nasty drawdowns, but I'd still outperform just about everything else.

    XIV is a money printing machine. Every now and again that machine is out of order for 3-6 months, but will start spitting out cash if you're patient

    http://bit.ly/17DLkdJ
    Apr 16, 2013. 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Pay Its Tax Bill [View article]
    True, but they the $94.2B figure does not include that liability. You would have to do the subtraction yourself.
    Apr 16, 2013. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Worth $370 An Ounce [View article]
    Krassen, maybe it is, but AAPL makes things people want. I've never seen gold do anything other than just sit there.

    Long AAPL
    Apr 15, 2013. 09:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Fear Bubble Bursts [View article]
    Sometimes gold is not a good store of value. Look at a price chart from 1981 to 2000. If you're willing to hold on for that long with the hope of another spike, fine, but seems like there are better places to put my money in the next decade or two.
    Apr 15, 2013. 09:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Pay Its Tax Bill [View article]
    six-oh, nope. I bought in after the fall with an average cost basis of about $475. I'd like to see the price fall more as the dividend increases so I can add to my position on the cheap.
    Apr 15, 2013. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Worth $370 An Ounce [View article]
    I'd take the other side of your hyperinflation bet.
    Apr 15, 2013. 07:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Worth $370 An Ounce [View article]
    Gordon, you might be right here, I don't foresee anything like a Volcker shock. But on the other hand, inflation was a much bigger problem in 1980 than today, so we may not need a shock to dramatically lower inflation expectations. Time will tell- thanks for commenting.
    Apr 15, 2013. 05:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Pay Its Tax Bill [View article]
    mhanley, you summed up my position perfectly. If you are like me and think that AAPL will increase in price to $600-$700 in a few years, its a pretty good deal. Just imagine how much better of shareholders would be if AAPL had initiated a big buyback program when the stock was at $200 a few years back.
    Apr 15, 2013. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misunderstanding The Monetary System Is Hazardous To Your Portfolio's Health [View article]
    Well said, thank you for injecting some sanity into the conversation.
    Apr 15, 2013. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Worth $370 An Ounce [View article]
    I'd be more impressed too, but alas I have no crystal ball :)
    Apr 15, 2013. 04:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Worth $370 An Ounce [View article]
    Chris, perhaps you know more than I, but I view inflation as the erosion of purchasing power. Changes in the money supply can influence the rate of inflation, but are only one factor among others.

    From a theoretical perspective, would it make sense to include stock prices in the CPI? Perhaps.....
    Apr 15, 2013. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Worth $370 An Ounce [View article]
    sid, fair enough. Given that $370 is too low, what is the right price then? I don't think there is such a thing as a right price for gold, because most of the price volatility is due to changes in investor sentiment rather than the underlying fundamentals regarding inflation.
    Apr 15, 2013. 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Pay Its Tax Bill [View article]
    Michael, excellent points. I don't think AAPL management is too distracted with financial engineering either. I think they are just acting out of habit by doing something that made sense when they had $10B in the bank but makes little sense now.
    Apr 15, 2013. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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