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Michael Nau

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  • Reflections On The Current State Of Apple [View article]
    Bret, well said, I totally agree. AAPL is ridiculously cheap and short-term sentiment is the only thing keeping it down.
    Apr 11, 2013. 04:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TIC... TIC... TIC: The Ominous Warning In Foreigners' U.S. Bond Positions [View article]
    I'm not as worried as you are. If I am a sovereign or big foreign institutional investor and I want some safe fixed income investments, I'm buying treasuries. I'm not interested in the Euro, which is too volatile, or the Yen, which appears on the brink of significant devaluation, or the Pound because Britain's economy is still in the toilet. There's nowhere else to go, unless you think the emerging market sovereign debt craze has a fundamental basis. I don't.

    Put another way, what looks better than treasuries right now when it comes to safety?
    Apr 11, 2013. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Some Of Your Exxon Shares [View article]
    I'll buy those shares.
    Apr 11, 2013. 07:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Perspective On Apple's Valuation [View article]
    I don't understand your calculations. At the beginning of the article, you say that AAPL is valued for slightly negative cashflow growth. I agree.

    But then you come out in different scenarios that include positive earnings growth and valuations like $164.48 (scenario 2) or $383.79 (scenario 3). Are you treating earnings different than cash flow? What especially raised an eyebrow for me was that AAPL could be worth $164.48, which is only a bit more than its cash, with 5% earnings growth. A zero-growth AAPL is worth about $500 in my opinion.
    Apr 11, 2013. 07:29 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Singapore Story: No Longer A Sure Thing For Investors? [View article]
    I don't really get the argument. As you say, so long as geography doesn't change and Singapore is "one step better" than its neighbors, which is not too hard to do, then what's the fuss?

    You may not like their statist-authoritarian model, there's a lot to it I don't like, but it seems pretty clear to me that it delivers the goods.
    Apr 9, 2013. 10:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Market Not A Bubble And Still Highly Undervalued [View article]
    The massive run-up in price is ironic given that the point of bitcoin is to create a stable currency that is a reliable store of value. Its historical chart looks more like a penny stock to me. Will it be up 100% or down 50% next month? Nobody knows.

    Does anyone reading this have more than a 5% allocation to bitcoin? If so, when will you know if it is overvalued and that you should sell?
    Apr 8, 2013. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can Save Its Shareholders - But Will It? [View article]
    AAPL selling puts is a great idea, the implied vol is quite high.
    Apr 8, 2013. 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
    Where's the discussion of valuation? How does AAPL's current valuation and balance sheet match up to the flash-in-the-pan stocks you mention?

    AAPL has a trailing p/e of 9.6. At a discount rate of 10%, AAPL is valued for zero growth. Or significant earnings decline if you think its cash is worth more than $0.
    Apr 8, 2013. 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Not Different This Time - It Is Worse [View article]
    antiqueron, caupachow, how did you pay for your education when you were 10? What value were you creating? Or did you feel entitled to food, shelter, and opportunity just like the other entitled youth of our country? Raising you cost a lot of people besides your parents a lot of money.

    What if they had decided you weren't worth it?
    Apr 8, 2013. 12:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Not Different This Time - It Is Worse [View article]
    caupachow, children do not pay property taxes. They get free handouts from the government ever since our nanny state saw fit to outlaw child labor. I'm personally ok with them getting such handouts.

    So here's a working definition of socialist, obtained from the communist manifesto: public ownership and control. Sounds like public schools and school boards to me. If you don't like the idea of public schools, fine, there are plenty of people who agree with you in Afghanistan.

    Apr 8, 2013. 08:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy approves plan to pay €40B to settle a giant outstanding balance with private companies. The debts became a source of distress for the country's corporate sector when bank credit to businesses dried up. The government hopes paying its bills will stimulate the economy, but says the decision to make good on its commitments wasn't easy: "We have to follow a path between helping our economy recover and maintaining budget discipline," Italy's Economic Minister notes. [View news story]
    Italy should leave the Euro before its economy completely crumbles. It sounds weird saying this, but when a candy bar cost $2 million lira, Italy's economy seemed much better off. They just can't compete with Germany.
    Apr 7, 2013. 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Not Different This Time - It Is Worse [View article]
    Fair enough. Bret, its been fun intellectually jousting, keep those articles coming!
    Apr 7, 2013. 08:54 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Not Different This Time - It Is Worse [View article]
    Austin, there's a big, public university and a lot of white-collar government jobs, which is an environment that attracts a lot of entrepreneurs. Just like silicon valley, Seattle, or Boston. There is a reason why low-tax conservative states tend to do worse on education and public health except for the parts that look like blue states. fafatooey, hating on people with education is part of the problem.

    My bigger point was this: look at the countries that are beating us at education and the sorts of social policies they have. Nobody to our political right, only countries to the left.
    Apr 7, 2013. 07:20 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Not Different This Time - It Is Worse [View article]
    The countries beating us are social democracies with teachers unions. They are beating us in public health metrics as well.

    Who has better education and public health, Mississippi or Massachusetts?
    Apr 7, 2013. 05:19 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Not Different This Time - It Is Worse [View article]
    Ok, so lets say that SSI and SSD are full of scammers. SSI, the one that does not require paying into Social Security through payroll taxes, has a yearly max of $8,529 in 2013. I don't make much as a grad student/college instructor, but that's not enough money to get me to fake depression. To get SSD, you need to have actually worked at a job for a long time and getting disability is a significant pay cut, just like social security retirement isn't 100% income replacement. Once again, not enough incentive for me to fake it. There's just no good way to be solidly middle class and live off these programs.

    By the way, in my school district, spending per pupil was about $14,000 per year last year. Even if you say that teachers are overpaid etc and that we should follow the South Carolina education model, you're still looking at $10,000 per year for 12 years for every student. Did you get that handout?
    Apr 7, 2013. 04:19 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment