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Michael Nau

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  • Gold Takes Out Major Support: Next Stop $1,350 [View article]
    I agree that there is no way to analyze gold from a fundamental perspective and would never own the stuff myself. But why short something that you cannot value?

    The gold crazies might work themselves into a buying frenzy at any time. I'd rather shoot fish in a barrel than go fishing for pirhanas.
    Apr 3 06:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Good Business At A Below Average Price Makes Intel A Strong Long-Term Buy [View article]
    Tim, great article as always.
    Mar 29 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 14.5% Dividend Payer KKR Quadrupled Its Economic Net Income In 2012 - More Growth Ahead [View article]
    OK, thanks. So another dumb question: in your example, where does that $6B difference between GAAP income and economic income go?
    Mar 29 01:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Industrials With Potential To Reach 20% Yield On Cost In 10 Years [View article]
    interesting article, thanks!
    Mar 29 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 14.5% Dividend Payer KKR Quadrupled Its Economic Net Income In 2012 - More Growth Ahead [View article]
    This is probably a dumb question, but what's the difference between GAAP net income and "economic net income". Are they the same thing?
    Mar 28 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
    OK, now I'm very confused. My FDIC-insured checking and savings accounts are safe if my bank goes belly up, right? Otherwise, why the heck does the FDIC exist?
    Mar 28 04:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The "vol tourists" are piling into the Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (XIV), says Chris Cole, not really understanding it, but liking the price action (up) and believing the "Fed will always have their back." The "tourists" may get burned at some point, but for the moment, the XIV is providing another way for those betting on turbulence to lose money - demand to borrow the shares is soaring. [View news story]
    There's no juice now with VIX at about 13, but there will be some eventually. Until then, I'll sell deep OTM puts on SVXY to get back in when vol comes back.
    Mar 28 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus Commits Economic Suicide [View article]
    And "do not be beholden to unelected foreigners". Germany has a chance to become a continental leader, but is squandering it through shortsighted policies.
    Mar 28 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Myths 11-15 [View article]
    Thanks for the article, as a young person I totally agree with #14. I'd add that in my opinion, growth stocks as a whole have higher risk because of their rich valuations. Investors are not usually compensated well for taking on valuation risk.
    Mar 28 09:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger: Unexploded Bomb In Your Preferred Stock Portfolio [View article]
    Interesting article, I totally agree, too much risk for too little reward. I also wonder if in the search for yield, preferreds are getting overvalued and are in for a fall when rates rise.
    Mar 27 08:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP - The Resolution Of Legal Issues Will Be The Catalyst To Propel The Stock Higher [View article]
    What about STO? It is much cheaper with a p/e ttm of just 5.5, has a better track record on environmental risk and governance, and dividends are in NOK, which seems like a safer currency than the pound or dollar.
    Mar 27 07:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Internet Bancorp: A Recent Price Drop Creates An Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for the heads up! I'm long BOFI and am a true believer in internet banking, I'll definitely give INBK a closer look.
    Mar 27 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Looks Cheap As Analyst Sees It Going Over $20 [View article]
    MexCom, we meet again on the BAC battleground :)

    What's your estimated loan loss reserve for 2013? Last year was $8.1 billion compared to net income of $4.2 billion. 2013, 2014 earnings will be all about how many more write-offs are needed. Thoughts?
    Mar 27 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Link Between Higher Stocks And A Stronger Economy [View article]
    Interesting article, thanks. I like the distinction between current confidence and future expectations, it actually looks like consumers are pretty good at sensing that good times and bad times don't last forever. I'd say that future expectations being higher than current expectations is a bullish signal that indicates we're just now crawling out of the hole.
    Mar 27 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Looks Cheap As Analyst Sees It Going Over $20 [View article]
    A p/e ttm of almost 50 is not cheap, in my opinion. Betting that post-crisis BAC can ever make real money is pretty speculative.

    Earnings are less than 1/10 of what they were in 2007, and $8 billion went "poof" last year in reserving for loan losses with no real end in sight. Looking only at book value and not earnings or loan portfolio quality will lead to overvaluation: at $20, BAC would have a forward p/e of about 20. I wouldn't pay that price for KO, let alone a capital black hole like BAC.
    Mar 27 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment