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Michael Nau

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  • Deflation Is Not A Danger [View article]
    Sounds like you're talking about the "long depression" from the 1870s to the 1890s when growth was something like 1% per year. Not impressive.
    Mar 7 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Is Not A Danger [View article]
    Umm.....okay. So let's say there is generalized inflation, not just cheaper computers. What would economic growth look like?

    Is there an example of any country that experienced even modest deflation and had solid economic growth? I can't think of any.
    Mar 7 02:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China suffers first corporate-bond default [View news story]
    This is good in the very long run, having a multi-trillion dollar corporate bond market without credit risk will lead to all sorts of destructive behavior.

    But in the medium term, China's debt-fueled growth will crumble if the credit spigot is turned off. I wouldn't want to be a CCP policy guy right now.
    Mar 7 07:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pimco divorce appears to be getting messy [View news story]
    Gross got what he wanted, he's still the boss. He should be the bigger man and say only good things about his former employee. If he slings mud too, everyone will get dirty.
    Mar 7 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Shorts, Look Out Below [View article]
    Ok fair enough, let's say the trade is not crowded. That word seems to evoke certain images about crowd behavior, and that is not my main point. It is a bad trade that may or may not be "too popular". How about that?

    But I'm not sure I agree with your point that futures markets cannot have trades that are too crowded because there must be counterparties that take opposite sides. Portfolio insurance used futures contracts and most people agree that the trade was too crowded in 1987.
    Mar 6 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Worth $2000 [View instapost]
    Mar 6 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Worth $2000 [View instapost]
    Well, I'm a conservative value investor, so I tried to be cautious with my assumptions.....
    Mar 6 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Worth $2000 [View instapost]
    Food service: another industry to disrupt!
    Mar 6 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Insanity In Two Figures [View instapost]
    Yeah, the TSLA article is tounge-in-cheek. But maybe it isn't very obvious given how many wacky bullish articles on TSLA are being cranked out right now.
    Mar 6 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crimea parliament votes to join Russia; referendum date set [View news story]
    Let them vote. If Crimeans choose Russia, problem solved. It is not in our national interest to throw more money into Eurasian land wars.
    Mar 6 08:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese real estate plays SoFun, E-House fly higher [View news story]
    SoFun? E-House?

    I couldn't come up with better names for companies riding atop the largest debt bubble in world history.

    Mar 5 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Shorts, Look Out Below [View article]
    All excellent points. I guess I use the term "crowded" in a philosophical sense: it isn't a claim about the number of players, size of ETPs, etc.

    It is more about spreads and risk premia. The old short-during-a-vol-spike trade is running out of juice but the risk remains very real. When trades no longer have favorable risk-reward characteristics, I consider them "crowded".

    A side note: the whole world is long equity volatility, so the short vix trade (or short equities trade) has always been a minority position, even if VIX futures contracts technically need both sides to trade. The qualitative question is whether market sentiment is skeptical or risk-loving. I see too many signs that it is the latter.
    Mar 5 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Shorts, Look Out Below [View article]
    Thanks! I'm too much of a chicken to get into UVXY, but I agree with the sentiment. The problem is that the market get be insane for a long time. Just ask the TSLA shorts.
    Mar 5 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Shorts, Look Out Below [View article]
    Guilty as charged. Sorry.

    Just have a little patience though, the short trade will come roaring back as the bull market sours. It is very hard to predict short-term market moves, but I would be surprised if we didn't see a significant correction soon.
    Mar 5 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Shorts, Look Out Below [View article]
    Mostly contango and responses of SVXY to vol spikes as well as market responses to the very large risks in China (ignored by market). Didn't have enough time to document completely for the article.

    Also, I haven't seen an article on SA plugging an unhedged speculative VXX position for quite some time. That's a pretty good indicator.
    Mar 5 11:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment