Seeking Alpha

Michael Nau

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  • Apple: The Bottom Has Yet To Be Reached [View article]
    Return on equity is a bit misleading because the cash hoard has grown a lot and earns only a little, weighing ROE down. The underlying business is still earning an extremely high ROE on its very conservative balance sheet. Many other companies can only get 20%+ ROE with a rickety tower of debt.

    What I would have liked you to have said is that the ROE decline could have been almost totally reversed by an aggressive capital return plan. Personally, while the current plan is great, I'd like to see a lot more cash returned.
    May 10, 2013. 05:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Deep Dive Into Perhaps The Most Profitable Bond Issue Ever [View article]
    Good article, interesting to see how this will play out. Personally, I'd like a lot bigger portion of the unused cash going to buybacks- what's your thoughts on the $100B foreign cash pile? Issue $100B in debt? Hold on to most of it? At this point, AAPL is returning cash about as fast as it comes in, so the already existing cash pile won't be affected all that much.
    May 8, 2013. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Let Its Shareholders Down [View article]
    doyle300, what you are saying is correct if AAPL can give all its foreign cash back in a timely manner. How quickly do you expect to receive your $100 per share? My guess is several years, perhaps a decade, maybe never for the full amount. That is a waste.
    May 6, 2013. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Apple Issuing Debt For Share Repurchases? [View article]
    Excellent article, I like how you raise questions and acknowledge the complexity of the issue. I'm personally a big fan of the debt issuance, it can be financed at a cheaper rate than dividend payments on the stock, especially considering likely dividend growth in the next 5 years. With AAPL's fortress balance sheet, I'd like to see them lever up a bit and return cash to shareholders.

    I like your question "what's the value of cash you can't use anyways?", because issuing debt does not really solve the problem of $100B+ overseas. I believe that some day AAPL will have to bite the bullet and bring back that cash. The opposing side would say that there will be a tax holiday (doubtful), or that the foreign cash pile should just keep accumulating until the end of time. Taken to its logical conclusion, squirreling profits away where they can't be used on anything productive will make less and less sense as the pile grows. I'd like to see the cash brought back to increase the buyback while the stock is still cheap.

    May 2, 2013. 12:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Dividend Growth Investor's Dream? [View article]
    Its not legal, or else they probably would. Buying back shares means it is "onshore".
    May 1, 2013. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Funds May Hate Apple, But Consumers Are Still In Love [View article]
    Well said. AAPL is in it for the long term, not shifting strategy according to armchair CEOs that comment on internet message boards. What other company can boast that 70% of its customers are "very satisfied" with their products, with 90%+ satisfied? Its going to be a fun ride back up.
    Apr 30, 2013. 08:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Becoming Irrelevant [View article]
    Vegan, I totally agree. Its hard to have much visability for AAPL releases 2 quarters out, much less through 2018 as the article suggests.

    I expect that the smartphone market will evolve as much in the next six years as it has in the last four, so its really hard to predict what AAPL will or will not do. But at current valuations, the bar for AAPL is quite low and mediocre business performance will yield excellent returns.
    Apr 30, 2013. 07:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple-Microsoft Comparison Is Valid [View article]
    Excellent point, Little Dude, apples and oranges. At its valuation peak, MSFT also had no dividends and no plans to reduce its float by 15%+
    Apr 25, 2013. 03:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: How To Admit You're Out Of Ideas [View article]
    I disagree. AAPL is using tons of cash to reinvest in the business, $10B in the last year. That sounds like plenty to me. It makes sense to return the rest to shareholders after setting aside a rainy day fund.
    Apr 24, 2013. 10:14 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is It HP All Over Again? [View article]
    I agree Tim Cook seems to be doing a pretty good job: a few snafus and supply chain bottlenecks are to be expected given the size and scope of the undertaking. I also agree that CEOs should NOT be stock touts but focus on the business.

    I go back and forth about what they should do with the cash, maybe a healthy annual increase in dividends is the best move for the long term. I'd just like to know a bit more what Cook is thinking. I don't think sharing the basics of strategy a bit more with shareholders will hurt anything.
    Apr 22, 2013. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Repatriation Exposure And Dividend Consequences [View article]
    I just don't get why they don't repatriate the cash. That $94.2B is getting a negative real return and will be worth about $80B-$85B in a few years. I'd rather have the $65B or so of buybacks- it won't take too much price appreciation over the next few years to make the upfront tax payment worth it.

    I think we'll look back at AAPL in a few years and see the price decline + cash hoarding + non-issuance of debt as one of the biggest lost opportunities in corporate history.
    Apr 22, 2013. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook: The (Negative) $250,000,000,000 Man [View article]
    Little Dude, I agree. Companies have the responsibility to maximize shareholder value for investors, not momentum players. There is no such thing as a broken stock, only cheap stocks and expensive stocks.

    I would really like to see a big buyback though, would be very accretive for long-term investors.
    Apr 19, 2013. 11:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
    I'd like to agree, but APPL articles are like an itch you just have to scratch: read an article, then comment how cheap AAPL is. I guess the first step is admitting you have a problem...........
    Apr 19, 2013. 03:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
    I'm pretty smug. Who cares what happens with the stock price for a few quarters.

    Long AAPL
    Apr 19, 2013. 03:44 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dirty Little Secret [View article]
    I like buying lousy stocks where it looks like nothing will "get better". You can buy them cheaply and mediocre business performance will translate into superior returns.

    p/e ttm of 8.9, cash is almost 40% of market cap. Looks like a no-brainer to me.
    Apr 19, 2013. 07:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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