The have set aside some money for taxes, but they don't directly subtract that liability from the $94.2B figure on the balance sheet, which would be lower if you subtracted the liability from the asset. You say "tomayto" I say "tomahto".
I'm not saying that the way we tax corporate profits is correct. I'm saying that AAPL's foreign cash is doing nothing for shareholders. I belive that AAPL stock will strongly outperform cash in the future, so I'd rather have more stock.
Great article, I basically agree, but I give AAPL lower marks on cash management than you do. They have already ratcheted up their ecosystem build-out costs and are still drowning in cash. Personally, I don't see why they need to have more than $20 Billion on their balance sheet, given that the business is producing about $1 Billion in FCF per week.
I'd actually like to seem them repatriate most of their cash to buy back stock. Yes, I know that 30%-35% of that cash will disappear via taxes, but they should suck it up and take the hit. I'd rather see the float reduced by 25% permanently while the stock is cheap rather than have have a bunch of useless cash earn 1%. If I wanted such garbage returns, I'd buy treasuries.
A Different Perspective On Apple's Valuation [View article]
I don't understand your calculations. At the beginning of the article, you say that AAPL is valued for slightly negative cashflow growth. I agree.
But then you come out in different scenarios that include positive earnings growth and valuations like $164.48 (scenario 2) or $383.79 (scenario 3). Are you treating earnings different than cash flow? What especially raised an eyebrow for me was that AAPL could be worth $164.48, which is only a bit more than its cash, with 5% earnings growth. A zero-growth AAPL is worth about $500 in my opinion.
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
Where's the discussion of valuation? How does AAPL's current valuation and balance sheet match up to the flash-in-the-pan stocks you mention?
AAPL has a trailing p/e of 9.6. At a discount rate of 10%, AAPL is valued for zero growth. Or significant earnings decline if you think its cash is worth more than $0.
Apple: Up 10% From The Bottom And Going Higher [View article]
Bret, I totally agree. I say good riddance to the momentum crowd, I'd rather invest alongside value and income folks that actually care about the business than trigger-happy crazies. If momentum investors start loving AAPL again, that's my sell signal.
How Could A Dividend Be More Secure Than Apple's? [View article]
richbar, why would a 60% payout rate be too high? AAPL has essentailly no debt, modest capex, and a large cash pile that can use smooth out payments if earnings dip. On top of that, AAPL could potentially borrow hundreds of billions on the cheap to finance dividends.
Having an untapped, potentially massive source cheap of funding is itself an important asset. If AAPL decided to adopt the capital structure of HPQ, going from 0% debt to 56% debt (I would not necessarily reccomend this), it would immediately raise about $150 billion in cash. Using this cash raised along with $75 billion or so of balance sheet cash, it could reduce its float by half at current prices. At that point, the p/e ttm would be less than 5.
I don't think AAPL should necessarily do this sort of financial flim flam, because management cares about the long term rather than quarterly performance. Sure my scheme would probably be good for short and medium term shareholders, but I'd prefer AAPL to hold onto this trump card, it could come in handy in 10-20 years.
Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake [View article]
Ashraf, great article, the plot line of the Zaky story is like a Greek tragedy. I totally agree with your lessons, especially number 1. Everyone would be better off if more people were more open to the possibility that they are wrong, even on something that they believe very strongly.
new slang, some valuation metrics do use book value instead of EPS. Graham's number does both. There is no single, universal way to value companies that is the best. I think it is a really good exercise to compare and contrast different valuation techniques, grasp at an intuitive level what they are saying about value, and then argue with yourself or others about which way is the best for a given security.
Personally, I don't really like how many people subtract out AAPL's cash from the market cap when determining its P/E. I'd prefer to think of the cash pile as making the future earnings stream more secure (more bond-like, although obviously riskier than a bond), because declining earnings can be offset by rising dividends or stock repurchases for a long, long time.
For me, the cash pile is what convinced me to invest, because I think there is a non-tivial possibility that 2012 was AAPL's best year, and the cash lowers my downside risk.
Apple Should Pay Its Tax Bill [View article]
Apple Should Pay Its Tax Bill [View article]
Apple Should Pay Its Tax Bill [View article]
Apple Should Pay Its Tax Bill [View article]
Apple Should Pay Its Tax Bill [View article]
Apple's Story: Only The Beginning? [View article]
I'd actually like to seem them repatriate most of their cash to buy back stock. Yes, I know that 30%-35% of that cash will disappear via taxes, but they should suck it up and take the hit. I'd rather see the float reduced by 25% permanently while the stock is cheap rather than have have a bunch of useless cash earn 1%. If I wanted such garbage returns, I'd buy treasuries.
Long AAPL, not bonds
Reflections On The Current State Of Apple [View article]
A Different Perspective On Apple's Valuation [View article]
But then you come out in different scenarios that include positive earnings growth and valuations like $164.48 (scenario 2) or $383.79 (scenario 3). Are you treating earnings different than cash flow? What especially raised an eyebrow for me was that AAPL could be worth $164.48, which is only a bit more than its cash, with 5% earnings growth. A zero-growth AAPL is worth about $500 in my opinion.
Apple Can Save Its Shareholders - But Will It? [View article]
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
AAPL has a trailing p/e of 9.6. At a discount rate of 10%, AAPL is valued for zero growth. Or significant earnings decline if you think its cash is worth more than $0.
Apple: Up 10% From The Bottom And Going Higher [View article]
Long AAPL
Apple Is Not Worth $460 [View article]
How Could A Dividend Be More Secure Than Apple's? [View article]
Having an untapped, potentially massive source cheap of funding is itself an important asset. If AAPL decided to adopt the capital structure of HPQ, going from 0% debt to 56% debt (I would not necessarily reccomend this), it would immediately raise about $150 billion in cash. Using this cash raised along with $75 billion or so of balance sheet cash, it could reduce its float by half at current prices. At that point, the p/e ttm would be less than 5.
I don't think AAPL should necessarily do this sort of financial flim flam, because management cares about the long term rather than quarterly performance. Sure my scheme would probably be good for short and medium term shareholders, but I'd prefer AAPL to hold onto this trump card, it could come in handy in 10-20 years.
Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake [View article]
Apple Is Worth $265 [View article]
Personally, I don't really like how many people subtract out AAPL's cash from the market cap when determining its P/E. I'd prefer to think of the cash pile as making the future earnings stream more secure (more bond-like, although obviously riskier than a bond), because declining earnings can be offset by rising dividends or stock repurchases for a long, long time.
For me, the cash pile is what convinced me to invest, because I think there is a non-tivial possibility that 2012 was AAPL's best year, and the cash lowers my downside risk.