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Michael Parmar

 
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  • U.S. Equities: Climb, Consolidate, Correct Or Crash? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment!!

    I would be really interested in people adding their own forecasts of US GDP here in the comments in reply to this post:
    Feb 22 03:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Equities: Climb, Consolidate, Correct Or Crash? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment!

    I don't believe the bull market is completely artificial ( but mainly inflationary) and has been built on the productivity gains feeding through to corporate profitability. We also see this in the implied redistribution of wealth towards the wealthiest.

    This happened in the UK as well after the 1980s recession with permanently higher unemployment levels there as a result.

    One " good" feature of the last economic crisis is that the companies left standing in the US are more efficient.

    I believe changes in the tax code will take away higher corporate profits.
    Feb 22 03:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gravity Still Works, After All [View article]
    Thanks for your reply, I saw one of the speeches you mention and yes it was prior to the minutes release.

    To me there was no surprise in the minutes or that speech (see link below) but I think many market participants felt that QE was indeed going to last deep into 2015.

    And I think QE is important (to equity markets and increasingly for economic future and for reasoned analysis why, if you are interested, here is the link :http://seekingalpha.co...)
    Feb 21 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
    An apocalypse? In the outhouse?
    Feb 20 09:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
    good article, nice summary of points
    Feb 20 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gravity Still Works, After All [View article]
    Hosing data was not that bad - there was a big drop relative to december because december number was outlandlishly large !!

    It was a base effect, not a trend indicator.

    ( the sector is vulnerable to QE tonedown, my take is that it was in response to Fed minutes.)

    I take your point that the doves so outnumber the hawks, so when " many participants" wondered about whether QE needed to be tapered prior to unemployment threshold reached it was actually not the hawks talking but the doves.
    Feb 20 09:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's Favorite Valuation Metric Surges Over The 100% Level [View article]
    Thanks for your comments.

    I agree with you so much on Point 3. However in this day and age people are not hiring and preferring to work key staff overtime because of uncertainty. In other words, it still represents the rational decision from their point of view.

    And with more people unemployed and in debt they can afford to make people work harder.

    FYI I also am one of the people in your generation.
    Feb 20 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Markets tumbled across the board - stocks, oil, gold and the euro - as what was already a broad-based decline became a full-fledged selloff after the Fed signaled growing unease about its stimulus efforts. While the S&P and Nasdaq fell more than 1%, the Dow was off only 0.7%, surprising considering the weakness in Caterpillar as it reported a global sales slowdown[View news story]
    HYG and other sectors were down too, Equities having been floating high for a bit
    Feb 20 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on FOMC minutes: Those expressing concern about the costs/risks from further asset purchases are upgraded to "many" from "several." A "number" said a close look at the data might well lead the FOMC to "taper or end" QE before a substantial improvement in the labor market occurred. "Several" argue the risks of ending too soon are also significant. Status quo for now, but the monetary law of the land can clearly no longer be called QE∞. [View news story]
    Open ended QE is not never ending QE!!!


    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 20 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Markets tumbled across the board - stocks, oil, gold and the euro - as what was already a broad-based decline became a full-fledged selloff after the Fed signaled growing unease about its stimulus efforts. While the S&P and Nasdaq fell more than 1%, the Dow was off only 0.7%, surprising considering the weakness in Caterpillar as it reported a global sales slowdown[View news story]
    US Fed minutes:

    "A number of participants stated that an ongoing evaluation of the efficacy, costs, and risks of asset purchases might well lead the Committee to taper or end its purchases before it judged
    that a substantial improvement in the outlook for the
    labor market had occurred."

    For anyone interested in the discussion of US Fed Policy not being properly priced into the market:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 20 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Awkward Was That? G20's Inactivity Gives Yen An Extra Push [View article]
    A clean crisp read.
    Feb 19 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash Hoards On The Sidelines And The Great Rotation: Old Myths Meet A New Reality [View article]
    This is not a new reality. total amount of cash/near cash/credit in circulation is fixed at any given time (money supply).

    If we take ALL this cash, lets call it quantity M in the economy and EVERYONE holding such cash turns up to buy stocks, then the only way they will convince the holders of such stocks to part with those stocks will be by paying a higher price per unit of equity.

    The sale will involve a shift of cash from group A to group B at a price per unit determined by the demand andsupply of that good or service.

    I think the author has mistaken the the Flow of cash which people sometimes look at to see the direction of demand and supply as having an overall neutral impact in the economy in the short run to suggest that the flow itself does not determine demand.

    Which is a useful reminder to have I guess.

    The demand and suply of assets are based on a host of forward lookn factors, including future returns, risk, and the opportunity cost of investment which is the VALUE to the user of next best alternative and should the discount rate used to value the stock
    Feb 17 05:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SEC files suit against Swiss traders in Heinz (HNZ) call options and obtains an emergency order to freeze the assets in an account linked to the trading. The lawsuits cite "highly suspicious trading" just prior to the Feb. 14 news of the acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) and 3G Capital. (earlier[View news story]
    SEC is taking action!

    there may be hope for market regulation yet

    HAHA especially since it is a "GS account " ......... wonders will never cease,

    SEC and Not Goldman Sachs Doing God's work??
    Feb 16 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Current Market Overvalued? [View article]
    Since the market is a discounting mechanism, it discounts future EXPECTED value, which you know about in the present.

    When the expectation changes, sure the market price changes but you can still work out what the valuation is relative to the future:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 15 01:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX - Options Volatility And Market Sonar: Thursday Recap [View article]
    Dont often follow options but this did catch my eye.

    Someone made a KILLING on Heinz options, as if they knew the deal was in.

    SEC, WHERE IS THE INVESTIGATION??????
    Feb 15 01:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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