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Michael Parmar  

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  • Everything Has Changed: Oil, Saudi Arabia, And The End Of OPEC [View article]
    An interesting article and approach, something to bear in mind.

    The wide swing in oil prices is to do with INELASTIC demand. i.e. we depend on oil it is an essential. The supply curve has shifted right, and lack of supply cut has meant price has fallen dramatically.

    If Saudis cut production and oil price fell anyway they would lose twice. As this article points out, better to not cut production and still make a profit.
    Jan 13, 2015. 06:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE ends, "considerable time" language stays for now [View news story]
    Brian,

    In fact, markets have moderated inflation pressures themselves (temporarily), as seen by the scare about deflation and Bullard's comments about inflation expectations down based on forward Tips (http://bit.ly/1tDA257)

    Nevertheless, as seen, QE has closed and the Fed has signalled its focus on inflation going forward.

    That means it will change the way it runs monetary policy. Are the markets ready for this? I think not
    Oct 29, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE ends, "considerable time" language stays for now [View news story]
    Fed QE over, the issue is inflation..!!!

    The policy and discussion was on the cards..

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 29, 2014. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: New Record Highs Imminent [View article]
    Good to have a long term, big picture view.

    However, every one of your charts is consistent with a slow down in productivity in the last short run/last 2 years.

    The most dramatic chart in there of course is the biotech cost of sequencing chart which is driving the biotech revolution and has set up the industry to lead the next "long" cycle of growth
    Oct 27, 2014. 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only Thing That Matters This Week [View article]
    Your first two lines of summary are great. Virtually everything else written about the rally for the last week has been noise
    Oct 27, 2014. 12:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unemployment Rate As A Leading Indicator For Wage Growth [View article]
    Great Article.

    Nominal wage growth above 2% and on an upward trend, as labour markets tighten, and your trends show the likelihood of acceleration in wage growth from this point onwards...

    ...is the market ready for what is next?
    Oct 6, 2014. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even The Council On Foreign Relations Is Saying It: Time To Rain Money On Main Street [View article]
    @Lance Brofman, reading through your comments, i must say the arguments are clearly presented and most importantly, make the BEST economic sense.

    Thank you
    Sep 10, 2014. 06:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. banks to be hit with tougher capital rule [View news story]
    lol, more to the point, how much would it settle for adn how much of its obligations would it be able to meet?
    Sep 10, 2014. 05:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. banks to be hit with tougher capital rule [View news story]
    The issue here is VAR - converting a 1 per 50 year crisis into a 1 per 75 year crisis as you move along the when TSHTF curve of probabilities further into the tails.

    Its all a casino, just like crossing the road.


    Sep 10, 2014. 05:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even The Council On Foreign Relations Is Saying It: Time To Rain Money On Main Street [View article]
    Hi Ellen,

    I am a fan of your articles and look out for them. Don't get discouraged by negative comment, and thank you for your contribution
    Sep 3, 2014. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even The Council On Foreign Relations Is Saying It: Time To Rain Money On Main Street [View article]
    Also, the things you say about the FEd current policy being against the ropes is also a good assessment, hence sticking to their "unwind of expansion"..path
    Sep 3, 2014. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even The Council On Foreign Relations Is Saying It: Time To Rain Money On Main Street [View article]
    The Fed is not down to its last bullet.

    Deflation has a simple cure, which the Fed is currently looking at: increase interest rates.

    The problem is low inflation,low interest rate expectations environment. Economic growth is there, the Demand side economy is growing. The Fed has met its targets and is looking at the cure for the liquidity trap. Dropping more money into peoples pots is not going to do it, despite what the CFR, who generally have no idea about economics, says. They are great at foreign policy assessment, but fail economics 101.

    Nice article though
    Sep 3, 2014. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reacting To Earnings Reports: Let's Get Real! [View article]
    Great article and an area of growing interest.

    This is an external validation of something we help corporates with via predictive analytics methods: how brands are managed and corp communications campaigns are managed and day-to-day news generated from the company affects share-price volatility, analyst perceptions and ultimately the firm's cost of capital.

    It is surprising how few big companies make the link between their front end communications (except when in crisis mode) and the impact on their key investing KPIs, something all small companies do.
    Aug 11, 2014. 05:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calm Before The Storm? [View article]
    Great article, nice review, always enjoy your style and more importantly, insight into the bigger picture

    As you say, unemployment rates rarely get much better than this. To get to recession, however, needs normally, inflationary pressure and monetary policy tightening ( i think you had an article about how monetary policy tightening almost always precedes recession?).

    IMHO with unemployment this low, Fed is free to aim at one thing, inflation control, and has flexibility to move interest rates.

    Here is an "unintended paradox" of current FED policy: lower interest rates/easy money from here stoke inflation, so Fed will start warning about inflation dangers -> people start heading for risk exits -> lowering interest rates in risk off asset prices -> key interest rates dont move up, they go down!

    Fed signals danger, puts up interest rates, contributes to "risk off/rush for exits"

    I think Fed will be far more flexible in rate increases than people suspect at the moment, because the Fed will be concerned about interest rate insensitivity/investor complacency and an underestimate of inflation pressures. My arguments are here: (http://seekingalpha.co...)

    The price of offloading risk to someone else is drifting to normal as you say, some people looking ahead to the not so soft landing.

    Everyone has been talking about "in anticipation of Fed tightening, interest rates are rising" but so far signs are all about risk repositioning in IMHO, long bond rates are falling...

    I would be very interested on your views on inflation pressures and term structure: would you be publishing something on that soon?
    Aug 8, 2014. 02:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patient Bulls Finally Get A New Entry Point, Thanks To Inflation Fears [View article]
    anarchist, i think the bigger picture (now) is that there is a recovery, there is a long term up-trend in equities still intact.

    3% from the highs (unless you are a short term trader) is not a significant entry point especially with clear signals of monetary policy change coming (which I think will be sooner and faster than the market expects) and market concerns about equities being over priced (I personally don't see significant overpricing in the current environment, but there are some "stretched valuations" as the Fed puts it)
    Aug 4, 2014. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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