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Michael Parmar  

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  • The Great Greek Bank Drama, Act I: Schaeuble's Sin Bin [View article]
    Greece gave in to EU demands - which were being made prior to the referendum - in exchange for COMPLETION of the 2nd bailout, i.e. 12 bn euros or so.

    After the referendum, Greece went back and acceded to the similar demands (with crucial differences that mattered to local pride) plus some more austerity measures - But got in return a third bailout of 86bn euro.

    You may argue that another 86 bn euro loan is not a gain as it adds to future debt and further problems down the line.

    But that is giant can-kicking - and in EU political terms - a success.
    Jul 17, 2015. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Falling Earnings Sink The Stock Market? [View article]
    This week is about Greece, the ramifications are significant, two weeks ago i commented on your generally great summaries that the Greek banking system is under threat, and now that threat is going to hit a full scale crisis.

    It is not the back stops that the EU will provide but the second round effects across Europe.

    The political issue about a Grexit is now showing the cracks in Europe and the EU project - once again surfacing the usual tension of national interest vs the "common interest"

    This theme - and tension - will for EU at least affect the stressed banking sector and - have a massive influence on long term investment decisions.

    time for US investors to pull their heads out of the sand....
    Jul 12, 2015. 04:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Costs Weighing On Saudi Growth [View article]
    Interesting article.

    The biggest concern amongst some wealthy investors in SA I have talked to - so consider this anecdotal evidence - is the state of the public finances.

    SA low tax regimes and larger welfare programmes have been seen as an important support for the stability of the country. A slowing economy raises the likelihood of higher taxes and political discontent. Given developments in the region, some fear the need to move their capital out of the country - aand at the least to diversify - is becoming more pressing by the week
    Jul 3, 2015. 09:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Chomping At The Bit To Buy This Market [View article]
    One word:

    Whipsaw!!
    Jul 1, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Partying Like It Is 2007 [View article]
    JPMs position in the commodities derivatives market is a significant concern imho, especially as that sector is exposed to China
    Jun 30, 2015. 06:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Greek Crisis Mean For Financial Markets? [View article]
    On the political front there will be some fudge, more can kicking, agreement to seek agreement in the next week, some progress made and so on. But the tipping point has occurred for the Greek banking system and we are facing a VERY serious situation.

    The run on the Greek banks is already occuring. The outflows have pushed Greek banks to expose their core Tier 1 capital reserves and the ECB's emergency lending has been increased beyond its allowable limits

    The ECB will have no scope to raise it if there is no outright agreement.

    The ECB will have limited scope to act - maybe fudge some sort of "emergency" emergency lending assistance, or Russia may step in with a stop gap measure of funds.


    The bank run has been modelled/contagion risks considered within the EU banking liquidity crisis - for first round effects only.

    Exposure of major financial institutions exists but is limited, and a bank run - independent of default - will cause all European banks to freeze capital requirements/lending to each other until they know what secondary exposure they have (i.e. because their counter party has exposure).

    To counter this, I think the ECB will provide backstops to the third part banks - and will use its QE programme accordingly, that is what it was really put in place for.

    So, unfortunately, this is a "Lehman weekend". All parties have squared up for this, they havent told the general public for fear of accelerating the run sooner. Once again, it will be the average guy on the street -especially in Greece - who loses
    Jun 21, 2015. 09:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Margin Debt Reaches New All-Time High - Bullish Or Bearish? [View article]
    Nice article, great to see a wide ranging review of debt.

    Thanks for taking the time to share.
    Jun 5, 2015. 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything Has Changed: Oil, Saudi Arabia, And The End Of OPEC [View article]
    An interesting article and approach, something to bear in mind.

    The wide swing in oil prices is to do with INELASTIC demand. i.e. we depend on oil it is an essential. The supply curve has shifted right, and lack of supply cut has meant price has fallen dramatically.

    If Saudis cut production and oil price fell anyway they would lose twice. As this article points out, better to not cut production and still make a profit.
    Jan 13, 2015. 06:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE ends, "considerable time" language stays for now [View news story]
    Brian,

    In fact, markets have moderated inflation pressures themselves (temporarily), as seen by the scare about deflation and Bullard's comments about inflation expectations down based on forward Tips (http://bit.ly/1tDA257)

    Nevertheless, as seen, QE has closed and the Fed has signalled its focus on inflation going forward.

    That means it will change the way it runs monetary policy. Are the markets ready for this? I think not
    Oct 29, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE ends, "considerable time" language stays for now [View news story]
    Fed QE over, the issue is inflation..!!!

    The policy and discussion was on the cards..

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 29, 2014. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: New Record Highs Imminent [View article]
    Good to have a long term, big picture view.

    However, every one of your charts is consistent with a slow down in productivity in the last short run/last 2 years.

    The most dramatic chart in there of course is the biotech cost of sequencing chart which is driving the biotech revolution and has set up the industry to lead the next "long" cycle of growth
    Oct 27, 2014. 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only Thing That Matters This Week [View article]
    Your first two lines of summary are great. Virtually everything else written about the rally for the last week has been noise
    Oct 27, 2014. 12:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unemployment Rate As A Leading Indicator For Wage Growth [View article]
    Great Article.

    Nominal wage growth above 2% and on an upward trend, as labour markets tighten, and your trends show the likelihood of acceleration in wage growth from this point onwards...

    ...is the market ready for what is next?
    Oct 6, 2014. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even The Council On Foreign Relations Is Saying It: Time To Rain Money On Main Street [View article]
    @Lance Brofman, reading through your comments, i must say the arguments are clearly presented and most importantly, make the BEST economic sense.

    Thank you
    Sep 10, 2014. 06:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. banks to be hit with tougher capital rule [View news story]
    lol, more to the point, how much would it settle for adn how much of its obligations would it be able to meet?
    Sep 10, 2014. 05:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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243 Comments
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