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Michael Parmar

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  • Europe Playing a Game of Brinkmanship: Investors Should Limit Exposure [View article]
    Doesn't the list of events following a Greek default (quoted from the Daily Telegraph) present to you the idea that their possibility of occurunce will mean a solution HAS to be found for the European idea to survive?

    You quote “A man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest.”

    I think your article is a good example of that, as you have interpreted statements clearly indicating the IMF/EU/ECB and Greece itself do not want a default (and been pretty selective of the choice of presentation) to support your view of "brinkmanship".

    Perhaps it is simply they mean what they say and won't let it happen.

    At least not in the short term.

    And, I agree with you that in such a situation every scenario has been examined and is being examined, with early non-viable alternatives ruled out. Such as euro exit.
    May 29 11:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fight The Fed? Don't Fight The Treasury Bond ETF Trend [View article]
    Thanks for article, and more evidence of smart money action.

    Long term bonds are a smart money, "risk off" haven, especially when many money managers are cutting equity exposure rapidly, and in the face of expected short term rate rises, moving down the yield curve.
    Aug 4 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Changing Gear [View article]
    The Fed said it is not worrying about this, this time: something along the lines of " the economy is sustainable to lower unemployment further"....

    what clearer message do you want from the Fed?
    Aug 4 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Changing Gear [View article]
    Snoopy, I'm not preaching about non-existent wage pressures, and I am glad you have a market beating performance!

    I think your original point was that we are in a deflationary argument. My point is much simpler: The Fed has met current policy targets, inflationary pressure is rising so it is changing focus on what target to meet next.

    It will most likely try to "talk the inflationary pressure" down, but if that doesn't work, because people are so used to a "free lunch" from the Fed, it will act, faster and with more force than most people think possible right now.

    And the Inflation trends and wage growth is there, have a look for it, not the "real world" of the various neighbourhoods and so forth that you and I may know about, but in the world the Fed measures and acts on
    Aug 4 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Changing Gear [View article]
    bg, you are right about the underlying rate being much higher, lets just say the measured rate tracked by the FED is at that level.
    Aug 4 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Default Has Already Begun [View article]
    Why US default is not mega catastrophe:

    1. US default = risk of failure to pay US govt bond holders either interest or principal. If these are missed there is a technical default, for bad management reasons, not a US govt solvency problem.

    Politicians could fail to raise the debt ceiling with a message that future payments will be met and bad debt/missed payments made good with interest. As Felix said, it could actually be good for bondholders in the long run.

    2. US$ is world reserve currency and not directly linked to default: there is no "running out of reserves" given US Fed can print more. Fed can always expand its bond purchase programme to counter rising yields.

    3. This contrasts with countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Asia Financial Crisis and so on which linked Govt insolvency with falling foreign currency reserves via capital flight ( Within EU, despite a single Euro the current system still requires countries to balance their books with each other and the system that supports any imbalances in currency holdings is Target 2).
    Oct 15 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now The Time To Double Down In REIT Town? [View article]
    If it was only about present rental income, REIT values wouldn't have crashed by up to 70% in the market through this recession.

    Buying into REITS as you say is like buying into property. It's a long term investment. And as such, you make it with the view that should you need to exit for unfortunate reasons, you wont have to get rid of it at a loss.
    Aug 19 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Dip Or Short The Market? AAII Bears Have Some Answers [View article]
    Thanks for the comment investinginvestor.

    Professional investors are behind much of the net equity outflows, Buffet, Soros, Paulson, all cashing in on a number of SP500 stalwarts.

    I think people will be surprised on Wednesday when they see the fed minutes and the amount of taper talk.

    Jeff in his "Weighing the week ahead" suggested that the fall in bullish sentiment was bullish - Not at its current level.
    Aug 19 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Dip Or Short The Market? AAII Bears Have Some Answers [View article]
    I will
    Aug 19 03:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Dip Or Short The Market? AAII Bears Have Some Answers [View article]
    Rseye, indeed anything is possible.

    the level of complacency is so high amongst investors, reading some articles here people think everything is going to be fine.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we got a volume dump in the blink of an eye.
    Aug 18 07:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Dip Or Short The Market? AAII Bears Have Some Answers [View article]
    Thanks for the helpful comment!
    Aug 18 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consequences Of A Tapering Fed [View article]
    Nice article, Thanks.
    Jul 24 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reinhart-Rogoff And Krugman Square Off Again, But Are They Arguing About The Right Issues? [View article]
    Nice article.......
    May 28 05:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Subtle View Of Labor Market Improvement [View article]
    Thanks for the valuable insight.

    Not so subtle!
    May 24 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mean-Variance Optimization Vs. Naive Diversification In Portfolio Allocation [View article]
    Interesting article.

    Did you expect otherwise from unconstrained MVO?

    And did you really need to bootstrap given the proximity of the estimated returns and the size of the Standard deviations? they clearly overlap within 1 SD of each other, so basic stats would tell you they are VERY close in a statistical sense, and a simple test of the the means were significantly different would show how close they were
    Mar 7 04:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment